2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: The #1 key to the Democratic candidate winning in November is... [View all]RichVRichV
(885 posts)How many Rep-leaning Independents have ever voted for a Democrat or third party? Simple saying most Independents lean a specific direction doesn't make them party loyalists as you or Wapo claim, it just means they're more inclined to vote a specific direction. Party loyalists don't go outside the party, they are loyal to the party. The very act of labeling themselves not part of the party means they don't owe loyalty to it.
This year you have a Democrat with with extremely high unfavorability among Independents (right now she is at -42 points with them!) who is extremely well known and hated by a bunch of groups. On the Republican side you virtually have the Republican's worst nightmare as a candidate.
I'm going to bet those 2012 prediction models don't work as you or they expect.