2016 Postmortem

pat_k

(9,313 posts)

19. Analysis relative to targets demonstrates good, very possibly winning, trajectory.

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 04:54 PM

Mar 2016

Here's a look at how it's going relative to targets. From http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

Delegate targets for yesterday:
MI 67. He got 69
MS 13. He got 4
Total Target 80. He got 73. That's 91% of target. Pretty damn good.

The future positive effect of the win in MI far outweighs missing overall target for the day.

With every primary, he's getting closer.

March 1 -- 83% of cumulative target for that day
March 5 -- 85%
March 8 -- 86%

That movement is a big deal. He is going in the right direction big time.

And the better he does, the better he'll do. It's one of those virtuous cycles. If it gets exponential, all bets are off!

And, BTW, Hillary superdelegate endorsers are already committing to switch to pledged delegate winner:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1444473

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

37 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Close Primary Elections Don't Affect Much [View all] MineralMan Mar 2016 OP

As long as we're counting DELEGATES (and not individual states) Hillary will be the nominee ... NurseJackie Mar 2016 #1

That seems highly likely, and MineralMan Mar 2016 #2

It does affect one thing. HassleCat Mar 2016 #3

The primary contests will continue. No question. MineralMan Mar 2016 #5

I did notice she didn't win 60-40% as some predicted. Punkingal Mar 2016 #4

Yup. I was wrong, just as were a lot of people. MineralMan Mar 2016 #7

Everything's going to be okay. Mufaddal Mar 2016 #6

Sanders was never supposed to break into double digits in the first place Fumesucker Mar 2016 #8

My primary event is over. MineralMan Mar 2016 #11

On the other hand, if Bernie keeps on SheilaT Mar 2016 #9

On the other hand, I have four fingers and a thumb. MineralMan Mar 2016 #12

She struggles outside the deep south AgingAmerican Mar 2016 #18

The close primaries are a shot across the bow of the center-right leadership of the Dem party apnu Mar 2016 #10

The close primaries are just that: close primaries. MineralMan Mar 2016 #13

Its not opinion, its reality. apnu Mar 2016 #16

Yes they do ibegurpard Mar 2016 #14

Momentum is hard to measure, really. MineralMan Mar 2016 #15

Yep. Analysis relative to targets is looking very good. pat_k Mar 2016 #20

She can't win outside the deep south AgingAmerican Mar 2016 #17

Massachusetts is in the deep south? Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 #24

So is Nevada. CorkySt.Clair Mar 2016 #27

Yup. Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 #30

She has won 1 state outside the deep south AgingAmerican Mar 2016 #32

Nevada is in the Deep South? Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 #33

Analysis relative to targets demonstrates good, very possibly winning, trajectory. pat_k Mar 2016 #19

Do you know if the targets are routinely updated? LonePirate Mar 2016 #21

I assume they adjust targets for remaining elections as polls come in. pat_k Mar 2016 #22

Yes, but Hillary is at 113% of her traget, while Sanders is at 86% Beacool Mar 2016 #23

It's the trajectory. Think about it this way: pat_k Mar 2016 #25

I think that Hillary would still be ahead on delegates (pledged). Beacool Mar 2016 #31

Yeah, it's a long shot. But, remember... pat_k Mar 2016 #34

I bet it took a toll on Nate Silver's xanax stash.... Bluenorthwest Mar 2016 #26

Mr. GOTV forgot to vote at his own caucus. SixString Mar 2016 #28

Why is that odd? MineralMan Mar 2016 #29

Oh! I had no idea! TY for pointing this out! ebayfool Mar 2016 #35

As you've implied, every primary/caucus being proportional... Garrett78 Mar 2016 #36

. enigmatic Mar 2016 #37