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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Hillary has done very well in the deep south. Let's see, how many more southern states are there? [View all]Algernon Moncrieff
(5,798 posts)54. I just made a post on this topic
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511432279
So far, the percentage of African American voters in a state seems to be a solid indicator. Bernie Sanders has won states with an average 3.75% AA population, while Hillary Clinton has won states with an average AA population of 18.9%.
If this were to be continuing indicator, the next two weeks will be bad for Bernie Sanders, as the upcoming states are southern and/or have high AA populations: MS, MI, FL, NC, IL, OH. After that, the next two weeks would seem to favor Bernie Sanders, as a bunch of Western states, and Wisconsin with low AA populations vote. Then back to Hillary, as we run through the Mid-Atlantic East -- CT, NY, MD, PA, DE, and RI (both RI and CT should be close and could swing to Sanders); then a mixed bag to finish that is probably about 2-1 Sanders (and includes California -- which has a surprisingly low AA population according to the Kaiser Family Foundation) if the AA population theory is a good predictor -- which we will know better in about a week and a half.
So far, the percentage of African American voters in a state seems to be a solid indicator. Bernie Sanders has won states with an average 3.75% AA population, while Hillary Clinton has won states with an average AA population of 18.9%.
If this were to be continuing indicator, the next two weeks will be bad for Bernie Sanders, as the upcoming states are southern and/or have high AA populations: MS, MI, FL, NC, IL, OH. After that, the next two weeks would seem to favor Bernie Sanders, as a bunch of Western states, and Wisconsin with low AA populations vote. Then back to Hillary, as we run through the Mid-Atlantic East -- CT, NY, MD, PA, DE, and RI (both RI and CT should be close and could swing to Sanders); then a mixed bag to finish that is probably about 2-1 Sanders (and includes California -- which has a surprisingly low AA population according to the Kaiser Family Foundation) if the AA population theory is a good predictor -- which we will know better in about a week and a half.
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Hillary has done very well in the deep south. Let's see, how many more southern states are there? [View all]
DLnyc
Mar 2016
OP
which is exactly why they are trying to convince us to give up as of March 15.
liberal_at_heart
Mar 2016
#1
California has 546 votes, and we do not vote until June 7. That's the big one.
JDPriestly
Mar 2016
#58
Hell yes, Even if Hillary does manage to win, it certainly won't be a Democratic mandate.
Live and Learn
Mar 2016
#14
Yes, your mistake. We are not in the GE yet much as some like to pretend we are. nt
Live and Learn
Mar 2016
#23
and chance for salvation lies with a career politician whose claim-to-fame is writing amendments
DrDan
Mar 2016
#28
Smear attempt noted and ignored. Bernie is the only one paying attention, he thinks it is the MOST
Live and Learn
Mar 2016
#29
Why did you use a religious term? Hillary is the only one attending a cult religious group. nt
Live and Learn
Mar 2016
#30
Yes, and there's California. And Washington, New York, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Arizona, Connecticut,
DLnyc
Mar 2016
#40
And that is no accident -- the DNC scheduled states they thought Hillary would carry FIRST
Samantha
Mar 2016
#56
Why don't we simply have a two or three tier primary in which all states vote at once?
Algernon Moncrieff
Mar 2016
#62
Clinton should substantiay pad her lead before taking about 10-14 days of body blows from Sanders
Algernon Moncrieff
Mar 2016
#61