2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Hillary has done very well in the deep south. Let's see, how many more southern states are there? [View all]DLnyc
(2,479 posts)so far, by RPC count, HC has 651 pledged delegates and BS has 456 pledged delegates
There are a total of 4051 pledged delegates, so a candidate would need 2026 to have a majority.
So HC needs 2026 - 651 = 1375 more, and BS needs 2026 - 456 = 1570 more.
The number of pledged delegates remaining should be the total minus those allocated or 4051 - (651 + 456) = 2944.
So I come up with:
HC needs to get 1375/2944 = .4671. . . = 46.7% of the remaining delegates.
BS needs to get 1570/2944 = .5333. . . = 53.3% of the remaining delegates.
So I repeat my original statement, the contest for the majority of the pledged delegates seems like it could go either way, especially considering that HC may not be getting the same big wins in the future, that she has recently in the deep south.
Again, I am not presenting this as spin. I feel this is an objective analysis. I don't think any of us really know how this will end up, with very different sizes and political leanings of states yet to come, stretched out over a fairly long period. So, as I said before, I think, with all due respect, that we will see how it plays out!
Although, in the interest of full disclosure, and to make one final point, I will say that I am pulling for Bernie, I will be doing phone banking today, and in a close contest, perhaps the decisive factor is which side works harder, not which side spins the facts better!