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DLnyc

(2,479 posts)
38. I'm not sure where you got 60%
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 12:22 PM
Mar 2016

so far, by RPC count, HC has 651 pledged delegates and BS has 456 pledged delegates

There are a total of 4051 pledged delegates, so a candidate would need 2026 to have a majority.

So HC needs 2026 - 651 = 1375 more, and BS needs 2026 - 456 = 1570 more.

The number of pledged delegates remaining should be the total minus those allocated or 4051 - (651 + 456) = 2944.

So I come up with:

HC needs to get 1375/2944 = .4671. . . = 46.7% of the remaining delegates.

BS needs to get 1570/2944 = .5333. . . = 53.3% of the remaining delegates.

So I repeat my original statement, the contest for the majority of the pledged delegates seems like it could go either way, especially considering that HC may not be getting the same big wins in the future, that she has recently in the deep south.

Again, I am not presenting this as spin. I feel this is an objective analysis. I don't think any of us really know how this will end up, with very different sizes and political leanings of states yet to come, stretched out over a fairly long period. So, as I said before, I think, with all due respect, that we will see how it plays out!

Although, in the interest of full disclosure, and to make one final point, I will say that I am pulling for Bernie, I will be doing phone banking today, and in a close contest, perhaps the decisive factor is which side works harder, not which side spins the facts better!

which is exactly why they are trying to convince us to give up as of March 15. liberal_at_heart Mar 2016 #1
Yes, realistically the contest could go either way. DLnyc Mar 2016 #2
NC, FL & MS. Beacool Mar 2016 #3
I do not expect Hillary to get the kind of margins in NC and FL DLnyc Mar 2016 #5
She doesn't have to win them by as much. Garrett78 Mar 2016 #11
Hillary is way ahead in FL and NC.... Sancho Mar 2016 #31
This NC voter will be voting for her. cwydro Mar 2016 #34
It will be interesting to see how she does in MI, IL and OH DLnyc Mar 2016 #7
When you're already behind... Garrett78 Mar 2016 #12
California has 546 votes, and we do not vote until June 7. That's the big one. JDPriestly Mar 2016 #58
That would be quite the upset. Garrett78 Mar 2016 #60
I predict Bernnie wil crush Hillary in Michigan on Tues. putitinD Mar 2016 #52
So excited ... Optimism Mar 2016 #4
We've already voted madokie Mar 2016 #67
There's some major bombshell coming Hydra Mar 2016 #6
Well, you can't spin the delegates. longship Mar 2016 #9
I wonder if something is lurking underneath CoffeeCat Mar 2016 #13
always the possibility of FBI grasswire Mar 2016 #16
Ahhh . . . you're forgetting or ignoring Florida? brush Mar 2016 #8
Florida has not voted the same as the other states I mentioned, historically DLnyc Mar 2016 #10
We're talking the Democratic primary here, not the general election brush Mar 2016 #46
Hell yes, Even if Hillary does manage to win, it certainly won't be a Democratic mandate. Live and Learn Mar 2016 #14
I will not heel for Hillary. grasswire Mar 2016 #17
Ooh, I like that! Good idea. nt Live and Learn Mar 2016 #18
ignoring Florida? DrDan Mar 2016 #15
Shouldn't all good Democrats after the Bush fisaco? Live and Learn Mar 2016 #19
went to PBO twice - so probably not DrDan Mar 2016 #20
Not in the primary. Live and Learn Mar 2016 #21
my mistake - I thought your "bush fiasco" referred to the GE DrDan Mar 2016 #22
Yes, your mistake. We are not in the GE yet much as some like to pretend we are. nt Live and Learn Mar 2016 #23
yet you refer to a past GE - oh well - Florida PIRMARY looms . . . . DrDan Mar 2016 #24
And you are now pinning your hopes on Florida. Good luick with that. Live and Learn Mar 2016 #25
well - I can't compete with that - the death of a species DrDan Mar 2016 #26
Post removed Post removed Mar 2016 #27
and chance for salvation lies with a career politician whose claim-to-fame is writing amendments DrDan Mar 2016 #28
Smear attempt noted and ignored. Bernie is the only one paying attention, he thinks it is the MOST Live and Learn Mar 2016 #29
Why did you use a religious term? Hillary is the only one attending a cult religious group. nt Live and Learn Mar 2016 #30
and thou accuse others of smears . . . DrDan Mar 2016 #32
Michigan, Illinois, Florida, Ohio, New York, Maryland, Pennsylvania... DCBob Mar 2016 #33
I predict Bernnie wil crush Hillary in Michigan on Tues. putitinD Mar 2016 #55
The question you SHOULD be asking BlueMTexpat Mar 2016 #35
I'm not sure where you got 60% DLnyc Mar 2016 #38
No problem. Glad to hear that you BlueMTexpat Mar 2016 #41
Okay, I see, but I don't think that is the relevant number. DLnyc Mar 2016 #42
Clinton won the popular vote in '08. Garrett78 Mar 2016 #51
And Obama outperformed in caucus states, as was his plan. JonLeibowitz Mar 2016 #53
Other factors also disadvantaged him. Garrett78 Mar 2016 #59
Hillary will win Michigan, illinois, new York...and those beachbum bob Mar 2016 #36
And OH, NJ and PA... N/t Godhumor Mar 2016 #37
Well, there's Florida, too. MineralMan Mar 2016 #39
Yes, and there's California. And Washington, New York, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Arizona, Connecticut, DLnyc Mar 2016 #40
Clinton doesn't need the same kind of margin. Garrett78 Mar 2016 #43
I agree, she needs less. She needs to get 47.7%, and Bernie needs to get 53.3% DLnyc Mar 2016 #44
The states Sanders is most likely to win... Garrett78 Mar 2016 #47
Mostly so far. Except maybe Minnesota DLnyc Mar 2016 #49
Minnesota was a caucus and is about 86% white. Garrett78 Mar 2016 #50
Interesting DLnyc Mar 2016 #69
And that is no accident -- the DNC scheduled states they thought Hillary would carry FIRST Samantha Mar 2016 #56
They want us to give up before the north TBF Mar 2016 #45
Why does the DNC frontload all southern Dixie states first? aspirant Mar 2016 #48
Why don't we simply have a two or three tier primary in which all states vote at once? Algernon Moncrieff Mar 2016 #62
I'm all for a series of national primaries. Garrett78 Mar 2016 #64
Agree 100% Algernon Moncrieff Mar 2016 #66
I just made a post on this topic Algernon Moncrieff Mar 2016 #54
3.75 vs. 18.9 Garrett78 Mar 2016 #57
Clinton should substantiay pad her lead before taking about 10-14 days of body blows from Sanders Algernon Moncrieff Mar 2016 #61
With the exception of WA and WI... Garrett78 Mar 2016 #63
Agreed. Algernon Moncrieff Mar 2016 #65
I don't think Sanders will win the West Coast. Garrett78 Mar 2016 #68
You are missing a lot of other states where Hillary is expected to win. Lil Missy Mar 2016 #70
Consider where Sanders started before you hand HRC the crown. mikehiggins Mar 2016 #71
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