Silver's flawed assessment of this race.

[Maximumnegro]

9. Even Nate has admitted I believe that

his numbers from 2008 (?) were matched by other sites that use less, er, complicated methods. 538 is an accessible, visual delight but no one should take anything besides his numbers seriously. He is terrible at political analysis but he knows numbers. His model still has Obama winning that's all I care about. Anyway some things are palpable. When a candidate has indeed turned the tide we can sense it. And that's not happening for Romney. He's closed the gap which sucks but there is no true feeling of momentum, of okay this is really a problem. Especially with the SENATE still holding for goodness sakes - I think that's hilarious. So yeah all we can do is wait and do what we can to encourage turnout. But I definitely don't sense a real game change. Once again the O team analysis from earlier this week still holds: the race is essentially stagnant (which also shows how conservatively they judged Obama's lead in the previous weeks). They are on top of it.