2016 Postmortem
Showing Original Post only (View all)For those who say Hillary Clinton can't win the general election [View all]
Many on this board have made statements that Hillary can't win in November citing polls that they have seen. Okay, I think that we can agree that Donald Trump is presumptive Republican nominee. So let's see why establishment Republicans are going into panic mode at the thought of Trump leading the Republican ticket.
I just looked up the latest polls - Clinton vs. Trump - in the swing states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Virginia. RealClearPolitics.com was my source.
As you know, because reliably blue states have more electoral votes than reliably red states, the Democratic candidate need only win one or two of the swing states to win the election. The Republican candidate can only afford to lose 1 or 2 at the most.
I took only polls which were completed in January or February of this year and here are the results - Clinton is leading Trump in 4 of these states (3 by large margins) and Trump slightly ahead in 2). Now what was that about Hillary Clinton not being able to win the general election?
Colorado - no recent polls
Florida - Trump +2.5%
Ohio - Trump +2%
Iowa - Clinton +5%
Nevada - no recent polls
New Hampshire - Clinton +7.5%
Virginia - Clinton +17%
Wisconsin - No recent polls
Pennsylvania - No recent polls
North Carolina - 3 polls - Clinton +1
Keep in mind that there is a long way to go before November and things can change. But if you believe in head to head polls this early on, you have to admit that Hillary certainly can win the general election.