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2016 Postmortem

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CajunBlazer

(5,648 posts)
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 01:57 AM Feb 2016

For those who say Hillary Clinton can't win the general election [View all]

Many on this board have made statements that Hillary can't win in November citing polls that they have seen. Okay, I think that we can agree that Donald Trump is presumptive Republican nominee. So let's see why establishment Republicans are going into panic mode at the thought of Trump leading the Republican ticket.

I just looked up the latest polls - Clinton vs. Trump - in the swing states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Virginia. RealClearPolitics.com was my source.

As you know, because reliably blue states have more electoral votes than reliably red states, the Democratic candidate need only win one or two of the swing states to win the election. The Republican candidate can only afford to lose 1 or 2 at the most.

I took only polls which were completed in January or February of this year and here are the results - Clinton is leading Trump in 4 of these states (3 by large margins) and Trump slightly ahead in 2). Now what was that about Hillary Clinton not being able to win the general election?

Colorado - no recent polls

Florida - Trump +2.5%

Ohio - Trump +2%

Iowa - Clinton +5%

Nevada - no recent polls

New Hampshire - Clinton +7.5%

Virginia - Clinton +17%

Wisconsin - No recent polls

Pennsylvania - No recent polls

North Carolina - 3 polls - Clinton +1

Keep in mind that there is a long way to go before November and things can change. But if you believe in head to head polls this early on, you have to admit that Hillary certainly can win the general election.

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Did these polls include Bernie? What were his numbers? jg10003 Feb 2016 #1
No, again these polls were head to head match-ups between Hillary and Trump CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #4
She can win. But that's not saying much. The GOP is washed up. If Trump is the best they have think Feb 2016 #2
This message was self-deleted by its author CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #3
It's just lashing out: happens every contested primary alcibiades_mystery Feb 2016 #5
Heck, it was just a fact check CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #6
The only way she wins is if they don't seat a Justice before November. basselope Feb 2016 #7
Bad turnout? CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #8
He is doing much better than expected. basselope Feb 2016 #10
MA, MN, and CO are all caucus states CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #23
Incorrect. basselope Feb 2016 #24
I'm in Minnesota, and I'll be caucusing for Hillary. MineralMan Feb 2016 #25
I'm not too concerned about MN. basselope Feb 2016 #30
Oh, we don't all know that Hillary can't win. MineralMan Feb 2016 #32
Of course we do. basselope Feb 2016 #34
Well, OK, I suppose. See you in November. MineralMan Feb 2016 #35
Only if Sanders is the nominee. basselope Feb 2016 #36
We'll miss you CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #40
They just miss my money. basselope Feb 2016 #45
What - $5 a year? Not so much. CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #46
LOL. basselope Feb 2016 #47
What is the margin of error elljay Feb 2016 #9
You can look the polls up yourself if you are interested in margin of error CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #17
. Motown_Johnny Feb 2016 #11
Every one knows that you can manipulate this particular on-line map.... CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #19
Not my map. And my point was to refute the OP Motown_Johnny Feb 2016 #31
Your map means absolutely nothing! CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #37
State-by-state poll information and estimates taken from RealClearPolitics and Huffington Post Motown_Johnny Feb 2016 #48
That map is true for North Carolina. No way will Hillary win here. n/t PonyUp Feb 2016 #33
And again, aside from your assuences, what evidence... CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #38
Not really. frustrated_lefty Feb 2016 #12
That's already figured into these polls CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #18
maybe you didn't know but in the GE we go by the electoral collage and by your list azurnoir Feb 2016 #13
Really? Wow!!! I didn't know that!!!! CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #21
Maybe she can win. But all the evidence points to Bernie being a much stronger candidate. reformist2 Feb 2016 #14
No because Sanders has not been vetted yet Gothmog Feb 2016 #16
These polls are before opposition research is used on Trump Gothmog Feb 2016 #15
Clinton +3 in NC! RiverLover Feb 2016 #20
And you base your statement on what evidence? CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #22
Trump will tweak his platform and draw the Independent vote yourpaljoey Feb 2016 #26
Right ochazuke Feb 2016 #28
There is about a 60% chance that who ever gets the Democratic Nomination will win the GE Kalidurga Feb 2016 #27
I don't believe in head to head polls in the GE from Feb. EndElectoral Feb 2016 #29
Too far out for polls to have much predictive value./nt DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2016 #39
Absolutely agree! Much to early! CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #42
Point the "Hillary can't win" crowd here DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2016 #43
Hillary could win against Trump andym Feb 2016 #41
He simply is not dangerous enough to win the nomination CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #44
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