Nate Silver says it's too soon to see if rmoney got a bump in the polls.

[vi5]

1. I think he'll take a hit as well

And I'd say if he loses the election, that will be the moment he lost it. He had a commanding and solid lead and all anyone was talking about was Romney's incompetent campaign and how unlikeable he is. I think O can still recover and I don't necessarily think that this is going to be the end. But if he doesn't recover it would be hard to find a clearer cut moment to pinpoint when he lost what most people agreed was in the bag.

Again, not saying I think this is going to be the case but if it is, it won't be hard to determine when it was lost.