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2016 Postmortem

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DanTex

(20,709 posts)
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 11:19 AM Feb 2016

Even without the socialism, Bernie's policy positions alone would sink him in the GE. [View all]

Single payer is a big example. Obamacare barely maintained public support, and one of the big selling points was that you could keep your current care if you wanted. When that happened not to be true for some tiny number of people (mainly because their plans covered so little that they didn't satisfy the new minimum regulations), there was outrage.

With single payer, nobody gets to keep their current plan. If you like your current plan, and don't want Medicare, you're SOL. If you don't trust the government to run a large program like this (trust in the government's ability to run things polls at about 25%), you're SOL. If your doctor currently doesn't take Medicare, and you're worried that if SP happens s/he will instead go all-cash, you're SOL. Good luck with that sale.

And the other thing is, the people who have examined Bernie's plan in detail so far are liberals like Krugman, and even among them the near-unanimous verdict is that his plan is unworkable. In the GE, there will be a lot more examinations done, and they won't be nearly as friendly or honest as the current liberal consensus of "nice idea, but it's gonna cost more than that." Not only that, but the Hillary campaign has barely gone after single payer -- her critique is basically that instead of starting over, we should build on what we have. Hardly a mention, for example, of the fact that every single person who likes their current coverage would be forced off of it and into Medicare, with no choices.

Then there's foreign policy. Bernie hasn't actually given his long-promised foreign policy speech, but we all know what his foreign policy is. Essentially, he's a pacifist, and certainly a non-interventionist. Which plays great with the left, but the American public is not pacifist, it is at least modestly hawkish. With respect to ISIS, polls show that a Americans, by a large margin, think we are not being aggressive enough against ISIS, the opposite of what Bernie is selling. Even committing ground troops to Iraq and Syria, which is heresy among many Dems, polls about 50-50.

In the primaries, he's been criticized for lack of experience, and for answering all questions with "I didn't vote for Iraq." And those are good points, but again, it's absolutely nothing compared to how hard he's going to get hammered for his pacifist stances in the general. And, it's not just right-wingers who think we should be more aggressive in the Middle East.

And so on. The tax raises. Yeah, you can sell them to some people by arguing that they will end up saving more money. Of course, that's only if you believe Bernie's projections, which not even liberal economists and health policy researchers believe. On DU, people who ask the obvious question: "OK, but what if it costs more?" get pilloried, but in the real world, when faced with the prospect of middle class tax increases, the electorate is going to be asking that question and more. And they're not going to just ignore the tax increases because a politician promises them that "you will end up more money under my plan."

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Can't trust the gubermint to run a big program? What a great argument! Wish I'd thought of that! Kip Humphrey Feb 2016 #1
Laughing at people who think that wont change the fact that they are a significant majority. DanTex Feb 2016 #2
Actually laughing at and about right wing foolishness is a very useful tactic for changing the fools Bluenorthwest Feb 2016 #60
I would imagine that there's psychological research on the question of whether DanTex Feb 2016 #64
If you have to imagine why are you affecting authority? What goals have you accomplished with your Bluenorthwest Feb 2016 #71
Sorry Dan, nice try! Dustlawyer Feb 2016 #111
i don't think moderates and independents care much about her wall street ties, such as they are. ShrimpPoboy Feb 2016 #118
We get it. You think the Democratic Party is conservative. TransitJohn Feb 2016 #3
Rutgers-Eagleton Poli-Sci folks say this is a never seen before phenomenon--highly unpredictable! TheBlackAdder Feb 2016 #86
You have no credentials to make such a statement with authority. nt Bonobo Feb 2016 #4
No, I'm not a political scientist. If you're care what scholars who do this professionally think... DanTex Feb 2016 #7
'Scholars' said marriage equality was impossible and seeking it would detroy the Democratic Party. Bluenorthwest Feb 2016 #80
Nice way to keep Democrats motivated..... daleanime Feb 2016 #5
Bernie's foreign policy experience webpage ONLY lists Lucinda Feb 2016 #6
Yeah, but it IS the Socialism that will sink him. A keyframe from a GOP ad this Fall ---> onehandle Feb 2016 #8
The socialism, of course, would be huge. But even beyond that, there's so much material for them. DanTex Feb 2016 #11
They called Obama every name in the book... TTUBatfan2008 Feb 2016 #14
Neither Hillary nor Obama are on video a thousand times calling themselves a Socialist. nt onehandle Feb 2016 #28
Just have to see how it plays out... TTUBatfan2008 Feb 2016 #31
So what? Here is some National Republican rhetoric about Hillary from before Bill got elected: Bluenorthwest Feb 2016 #65
you greatly overestimate the stupidity of the American people bowens43 Feb 2016 #24
Just like they have been doing for the last 8 years..... blackspade Feb 2016 #113
WOLVERINES!!! frylock Feb 2016 #114
Bernie who is the most dangerous country right now.....and the winner is... bkkyosemite Feb 2016 #9
Look at the bright spot. He doesn't have a muslim sounding name. Baitball Blogger Feb 2016 #10
Even if he actually were a muslim, it doesn't poll as badly as being a socialist. DanTex Feb 2016 #13
I'm sure that it's not a coincidence that the forces of evil in this country are overrelying on the Baitball Blogger Feb 2016 #23
Are you calling me "the forces of evil"? A little over the top, don't you think? DanTex Feb 2016 #30
Are you really basing your harassment of Bernie Sanders on a poll? Baitball Blogger Feb 2016 #43
Or having Commie Stalin money funding the Koch brothers funding the Republicans and DLC? cascadiance Feb 2016 #32
The socialist junk has been worn out by the right. leftupnorth Feb 2016 #34
Not what the polls say. And I'm sure that people under 40 think about it differently. DanTex Feb 2016 #35
So we need to suffer the ignorance of those who cling desperately to 20th century propaganda? leftupnorth Feb 2016 #49
The problem is, they get to vote too. DanTex Feb 2016 #53
It doesn't seem like it. It seems to me you're perfectly comtent to exploit their fears. leftupnorth Feb 2016 #56
How am I exploiting anyone's fears? DanTex Feb 2016 #59
Seriously? leftupnorth Feb 2016 #62
Yes. DanTex Feb 2016 #63
It's pretty obvious, isn't it? leftupnorth Feb 2016 #67
Excellent post. Baitball Blogger Feb 2016 #69
When did I say anything about reinforcing ignorance or manipulating fear? I didn't. DanTex Feb 2016 #72
Except they do like democratic socialism once they figure out what it is. leftupnorth Feb 2016 #75
That's a prediction with very little factual basis. DanTex Feb 2016 #79
Yes, becaus hilldawg's bros on Wall Street never hurt anyone, right? leftupnorth Feb 2016 #88
He's not saying to reinforce their ignorance mythology Feb 2016 #78
And that's fine in personal relationships. But it is defeatism in politics. leftupnorth Feb 2016 #91
People over 40 as well....if they have a lick of sense. blackspade Feb 2016 #116
I think your analysis of the American electorate is completely tone deaf. leftupnorth Feb 2016 #12
It's mostly based on polls, and also on what has actually happened in the recent past. DanTex Feb 2016 #15
Pretty sure the Iraq war had wide public support. leftupnorth Feb 2016 #18
Some of these folks should try living in a red state redstateblues Feb 2016 #27
+1 ShrimpPoboy Feb 2016 #121
The game changer is that Bernie has helped people to see the world differently. Look at all avaistheone1 Feb 2016 #112
Only among the most liberal group. And even that is only because none of ideas DanTex Feb 2016 #122
Well said. CentralMass Feb 2016 #74
Wrong with all of your arguments; actually, Americans are ready & eager for Bernie's platform; amborin Feb 2016 #16
His tax plan calls for a 2% raise in the payroll tax, and 6% to employers. If you think that the DanTex Feb 2016 #17
Is this deliberately an out of context charge leftupnorth Feb 2016 #20
I covered that. DanTex Feb 2016 #26
Seems like you take a lot of pages out of the Republican campaign playbook... HMMM.... n/t cascadiance Feb 2016 #38
Paul Krugman is now the Republican campaign playbook? Is that really how far-gone we're becoming? DanTex Feb 2016 #41
They certainly won't believe a typical duplicitous, backstabbing politician. leftupnorth Feb 2016 #42
A 2 % higher payroll tax in exchange for Medicare for all? Sign me up. wilsonbooks Feb 2016 #37
Good for you. The problem is selling it to the American people. DanTex Feb 2016 #39
He just has to be made sure that we don't hurt his insurance company exec friends... cascadiance Feb 2016 #40
i posted a detailed comparative analysis last week of both tax plans..... amborin Feb 2016 #44
It's amazing how blind BSS redstateblues Feb 2016 #19
Completely blind. I can see how 20-year-olds might think that way, having never really seen what DanTex Feb 2016 #22
It is amazing Stuckinthebush Feb 2016 #29
I think Hillary would disagree with you. sammythecat Feb 2016 #100
What is that path to victory for Bernie? Stuckinthebush Feb 2016 #119
more hill people bullshit, Bernie is easily more electable then hillary bowens43 Feb 2016 #21
Poll: Most Americans unwilling to vote for a socialist Stuckinthebush Feb 2016 #33
And you think independents would flock over to a corporatist pushing more TPP and more H-1B visas... cascadiance Feb 2016 #46
You forgot baby killing, elitist, meany Stuckinthebush Feb 2016 #54
Sorry, you're not addressing the points here. You like losing your jobs with such programs?... cascadiance Feb 2016 #120
It's really pretty simple Stuckinthebush Feb 2016 #123
If she wants to stop H-1B program expansion from taking our jobs then why doesn't she SAY SO!!! cascadiance Feb 2016 #128
Oh, populist movements exist Stuckinthebush Feb 2016 #129
Mubarek isn't exactly laughing at that "theory"... cascadiance Feb 2016 #130
And Yet Only a Few Months Later... DrFunkenstein Feb 2016 #47
Yes, those Iowans are the spitting image of America! Stuckinthebush Feb 2016 #52
umm....no less than South Carolina or any other southern state. Roy Ellefson Feb 2016 #77
K&R! stonecutter357 Feb 2016 #25
What Are The Policy Positions of His Opponents In The GE? DrFunkenstein Feb 2016 #36
That doesn't get discussed much in GDP. But basically, they all want DanTex Feb 2016 #48
Then why vote? JPnoodleman Feb 2016 #45
It's politics, you never get everything you want. Even with Sanders. DanTex Feb 2016 #50
no one with hillarys low favorability numbers restorefreedom Feb 2016 #51
Thanks for posting this winterwar Feb 2016 #110
there is a great graphic on one of these threads restorefreedom Feb 2016 #127
Absolutely false. Absolutely biased op. Fearless Feb 2016 #55
Why single payer died in Vermont Gothmog Feb 2016 #57
And the remarkable thing was that in VT, it had already passed. DanTex Feb 2016 #61
Vermont has 650,000 people and that's not a very large pool for a system of any sort. Bluenorthwest Feb 2016 #76
So you think administering what would be the largest single payer system in the world DanTex Feb 2016 #81
Luxembourg, where I have been, has a per capita GDP of $116,000 compared to the US at $53,000 Bluenorthwest Feb 2016 #87
Aha, dodging the question. Figures. I'll repeat it. DanTex Feb 2016 #89
In what way was Bernie administrator of Vermont health care? In what way does a President administer Bluenorthwest Feb 2016 #92
Yes, it would absolutely be easier to administer it nation wide than on one small state. thesquanderer Feb 2016 #107
This is truly absurd. The lengths people will go... DanTex Feb 2016 #115
Reasonable point. Perhaps the biggest obstacle was the limitations in how they could fund it. thesquanderer Feb 2016 #134
I also wanted to add that a US Senator from a State does not administer their health plan just as Bluenorthwest Feb 2016 #90
Exactly right. GOP is just waiting to unload on Bernie if he's our nominee. K & R nt Persondem Feb 2016 #58
The GOP has and will 'unload' on any Democratic nominee, the question is how will that Democrat Bluenorthwest Feb 2016 #68
The GOP will have very precise sound bites to use against Bernie that they didn't have with any Persondem Feb 2016 #73
Sorry, they hurl whatever turd is at hand at whatever Democrat we run, I just watched them insist Bluenorthwest Feb 2016 #83
Bernie's past actions and speeches allow for some big turds to be hurled his way. Persondem Feb 2016 #124
The Republican Party and the Tea Party hate the Clinton's. SamKnause Feb 2016 #66
+1. You cut through the bullshit very nicely. navarth Feb 2016 #131
Bernies positions are immensely popular. HooptieWagon Feb 2016 #70
But could not be adopted even when the Democrats had control of house and 60 votes in Senate Gothmog Feb 2016 #98
So your answer is to give up? HooptieWagon Feb 2016 #104
I gave this a Rec because you gotta hand it to DanTex... ElliotCarver Feb 2016 #82
But he needs more towels, he throws it into the ring runs after to fetch it back, throws that same Bluenorthwest Feb 2016 #93
somebody get this man MORE TOWELS!!!!! ElliotCarver Feb 2016 #95
Do you ever get tired of your own propaganda? Nt Logical Feb 2016 #84
Apparently not. It is pretty comical though. HooptieWagon Feb 2016 #106
Maybe you're right HassleCat Feb 2016 #85
Fortunately they have polls about foreign policy, so we don't have to speculate. DanTex Feb 2016 #96
I guess that settles that HassleCat Feb 2016 #125
Bernie Sanders’s single-payer plan isn’t a plan at all Gothmog Feb 2016 #94
I have absolutely NO CONFIDENCE in Bernie's foreign policy abilities. NurseJackie Feb 2016 #97
Yes, I remember people having NO CONFIDENCE in Barack Obama's foreign policy abilities when he ran avaistheone1 Feb 2016 #117
Krugman- Sanders health plan looks a little bit like a standard Republican tax-cut plan Gothmog Feb 2016 #99
Looks like today is Authoritarians Ordering Bernie's Supporters to Stop Supporting Him Day! djean111 Feb 2016 #101
k&r DesertRat Feb 2016 #102
Excellent... asuhornets Feb 2016 #103
Yes, this is exactly why he's polling better than Clinton against the Republicans. jalan48 Feb 2016 #105
Single payer is a big example? thesquanderer Feb 2016 #108
Um.... blackspade Feb 2016 #109
Hillary's baggage will sink her in the GE. Odin2005 Feb 2016 #126
Even without the red baiting, horseshit. Warren Stupidity Feb 2016 #132
I so want to call a TIME-OUT Iggy Knorr Feb 2016 #133
Kick. NurseJackie Feb 2016 #135
Right - because people don't want healthcare, expanded SS, tuition free public colleges, an end to Nanjeanne Feb 2016 #136
k&r DesertRat Feb 2016 #137
In 2012, something like 42% of the population believed Obama rusty fender Feb 2016 #138
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