Religion
In reply to the discussion: Reza Aslan Made the Worst Case For Religion On The Daily Show [View all]LTX
(1,020 posts)I will add that your numbers 1 and 2 could be classified as adjuncts to tribal affiliation, or "identity" (to use the out of favor term).
As for actual believers (your number 3), I think you weight the "doom" factor more than may be warranted. My own experience (and yes, you can legitimately discount what I am about to say as insignificant anecdote) is with true believers who are more perplexed by the mere existence of "us" and this (plainly) strange place we inhabit, as opposed to believers who fear doom. That disturbing sense of how perplexing this all is could be chalked up to scientific ignorance, if my experience wasn't with believers who are also scientists. That's an extremely small subset of total believers though, so I certainly can't speak to the general believer-populace.
I do, however, get a sense that religion is once again morphing into something new (as it has done so many times). The number of people affiliating with specific sects (setting aside Islam, which remains an outlier worth independent consideration) is declining rapidly in the west. But the people dis-affiliating seem to be, in fairly large numbers, nevertheless self-identifying as "spiritual," often in ways that are remarkably similar to otherwise hoary theological traditions (my personal favorite are the spiritual-atheists, a rather murky personal identification, coupled with a remarkably murky spirituality).
I tend to think that religion will continue, if in different forms, because we are hard-wired to attribute external causation irrespective of scientific rationality. It seems to be our fate.