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Economy
In reply to the discussion: STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Wednesday, 20 March 2013 [View all]xchrom
(108,903 posts)22. ANALYST: Europe Isn't Going To Blink
http://www.businessinsider.com/analyst-the-eurozone-isnt-going-to-blink-2013-3
SocGen's Sebastien Galy gives the state of play in Cyprus:
First, the Eurogroup blinks and provides much more funds. Second, the Eurogroup stands firm and Cyprus is eased out of the EZ with ECB liquidity support ensuring a relatively orderly exit. Third, some face-saving compromise is found but where Cyprus would still deliver the bulk of the 5.8bn in question. Fourth, Russia enters the stage as a white knight. I doubt the Eurogroup will blink, and the next 24 hours will be dominated by the negotiation between it and Cyprus. Negotiation 101 tells you the most important factor is which of the parties hold the strongest cards. My estimation is that Cyprus holds the weakest cards.
The big story right now is all about what emerges from the Cyprus talks in Russia.
The Finance Minister is holding a press conference there in a couple of hours. Europe does not Russia to gain a bigger foothold there, which is one reason there might be some compromise.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/analyst-the-eurozone-isnt-going-to-blink-2013-3#ixzz2O54bnzQ3
SocGen's Sebastien Galy gives the state of play in Cyprus:
First, the Eurogroup blinks and provides much more funds. Second, the Eurogroup stands firm and Cyprus is eased out of the EZ with ECB liquidity support ensuring a relatively orderly exit. Third, some face-saving compromise is found but where Cyprus would still deliver the bulk of the 5.8bn in question. Fourth, Russia enters the stage as a white knight. I doubt the Eurogroup will blink, and the next 24 hours will be dominated by the negotiation between it and Cyprus. Negotiation 101 tells you the most important factor is which of the parties hold the strongest cards. My estimation is that Cyprus holds the weakest cards.
The big story right now is all about what emerges from the Cyprus talks in Russia.
The Finance Minister is holding a press conference there in a couple of hours. Europe does not Russia to gain a bigger foothold there, which is one reason there might be some compromise.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/analyst-the-eurozone-isnt-going-to-blink-2013-3#ixzz2O54bnzQ3
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