EF-0. Economy Stats with links to original sources. Links to LBN jobs threads thru 12/8/23

[progree]

3. EF-3. Recessions and Expansions - Official (NBER.org). Also GDP (Gross Domestic Product)

Last edited Thu Sep 1, 2022, 10:47 PM - Edit history (34)

{#} Recessions and Expansions - Official NBER.org

# URL: http://www.nber.org/cycles.html

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER.org), the official arbiter of recessions and expansions:

# Recent economic peaks occurred in March 2001, December 2007, and February 2020
# Recent economic troughs occurred in November 2001 and June 2009 and April 2020
# The first G.W. Bush recession was March 2001 to November 2001
# The following G.W. Bush expansion was from November 2001 to December 2007
# The second G.W. Bush recession was December 2007 to June 2009, ending just 5 months after Obama took office.
# The Obama expansion began June 2009 (about 5 months after he took office) and ended February 2020 with the coronavirus shutdowns
# Beginning February 2020 we are currently in a recession

Other resources:

# NBER.org Business Cycle Dating - https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating
# http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States
# You can interactively compare recessions and recoveries at http://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/studies/recession_perspective/index.cfm

Per the NBER ( http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html ), recessions (contractions) begin at the peak of the economy and end at the trough (bottom) of the economy. And expansions (recoveries) begin at the trough of the economy and end at the peak of the economy. The NBER does not try to determine when in a month the peak or trough occurs. So, for example, when one reads that the most recent trough of the economy was in June 2009, and consequently that the recession ended in June 2009, and the expansion began in June 2009, do not assume this turning point occurred at the beginning of the month or at the end of the month or mid-month, but merely that it occurred some undetermined time in June 2009.

Please note that the end of a recession is the point when the economy hits bottom, and the faintest signs of economic growth begins -- not when people start singing Happy Days Are Here Again. In other words, the recession is over when we're at the very bottom of the pit and beginning to tentatively claw our way upward. But that's better than falling falling falling like we were under Bush).


{#} GDP - Gross Domestic Product (the size of the economy)

# Current-dollar and "real" GDP, Excel .XLSX https://apps.bea.gov/national/xls/gdplev.xlsx
# . . Found at https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product --> Supplemental and Additional Data -> Current-dollar and "real" GDP
# Percent change from preceding period, Excel .XLSX https://apps.bea.gov/national/xls/gdpchg.xlsx
# . . Found at https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product --> Supplemental and Additional Data -> "Percent change from preceding period"
# Don't like Excel? Below are some options.
# To see the latest GDP number (in billions of dollars), go to the latest news release at http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm --> Current Release -->
and search for the "Current-dollar GDP" (don't forget the hyphen).

One can find GDP data (both the billions of dollars level and the percent change numbers for the last several quarters (back about 2-3 years) by going to the above gdpnewsrelease.htm link, and then on the right hand side clicking on "Full Release and Tables (pdf)" or "Text Full Release and Tables (text)". The latest GDP level in billions of dollars is most conveniently found in the last column of Table 9.

But as far as I know, only the Excel tables and the Interactive tables go back beyond 3 years.

(THIS MIGHT BE OLD: ) To get to the interactive tables: Go to the above gdpnewsrelease.htm link and on the right hand side click on "Interactive Tables" and then click on the big "Begin Using The Tables" button, then click on "Section 1 - Domestic Product and Income" and then click on "Table 1.1.1. Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real Gross Domestic Product" or "Table 1.1.5 Gross Domestic Product". In either case, to look back further than about 2-3 years, click on the "Options" button and select "First Year" and "Last Year".

# Real Gross Domestic Product (GDPC1), FRED - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1

By the way, the headline quarterly GDP changes, e.g. "the economy grew at a 1.9% rate (or pace) in the 1st quarter" are always the "real", i.e. inflation-adjusted growth rates on an annualized basis. Many news broadcasts and even newspaper reports leave off the "rate" (or "pace" ), giving one the incorrect impression in the above example that the economy grew 1.9% in just one quarter (meaning that if all 4 quarters came out the same, then the growth for the year would be 4*1.9% = 7.6% (or more technically accurately (1.019^4 - 1)*100% = 7.8%). Nope, sorry, it means the economy grew at an annual rate of 1.9% in the first quarter, and if that growth rate continues throughout the year, the economy will have grown 1.9% for the entire year. (Sometimes, when a Republican president is in the White House, a RepubliCON will try to claim the higher figure).

The other thing that sometimes happens is a rightie will pooh pooh a 1.9% annualized growth rate, saying that that's not even keeping up with inflation. Well, again, these percentage growth numbers that you read or hear in news reports are already inflation adjusted. You can just direct the rightie to, for example, the gdpnewsrelease.htm link above which will patiently explain it to him or her.

And now some GDP factoids relevant to the message board wars (or just general information):

# The GDP in Bush's last full quarter (Q4 2008) fell at a 8.9% annual rate

# At least Obama stabilized the economy, even grew it some, so that it is now considerably higher than it was at the peak in 2007 before the crash. (AGAIN, that's inflation adjusted).

# The latest GDP number (2019 Q1 First release) as of 5/1/19 is $21.06 Billion (there are normally 3 releases)

# To do: explain the 3 releases: about when do they come out -- they come out late each month, for example the Quarter 2 ends 6/30. In 2019, the GDP Q2 "Advance estimate" was released 7/26. The release date of the 2nd revision: 8/29, 3rd revision (final): 9/26
. Is release 3 final, or is there also an annual revision? The release dates are at the bottom of http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm [s: Current-dollar GDP]

Doug Short at Advisor Perspective produces several interesting GDP graphs
# Real GDP Per Capita: http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Real-GDP-Per-Capita.php
# Real GDP- Current Release: http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/GDP-Current-Release.php
# Real GDP Components: http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/GDP-Components.php

{#}# Forecast of the upcoming GDP by Atlanta Federal Reserve, "GDPNow"
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

{#} St. Louis Fed's Financial Stress Index

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/STLFSI