A purge

[Matilda]

3. I don't think Rudd would have willingly handed over the leadership,

but a promise in front of witnesses would have given Gillard the legitimacy she lacked. She could have then moved against him later, knowing not only that she'd win, but that she had a right to do so. Had she followed that course, there might have been less anger directed against her, although I don't doubt that there would still have been a lot of resentment, given Rudd's popularity. But she would have had some legitimacy instead of none at all.

Polling shows that as things stand now, Shorten wouldn't win an election. When Hawke took the leadership from Hayden, he was already a well-known ALP figure, and very popular in his own right. And no matter what the caucus says, the public still casts the final vote, and Shorten currently polls more poorly than Gillard. Truth is that outside the union movement, few in the public probably know who he is.