Islamic State 'retreating' in key Syria town of Kobane

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37. Newsweak is not a good source, and that story is mostly a rehash (as one would expect from Newsweak)

The Christians in Lebanon developed a much more positive attitude towards Hezbollah after IS tried to take over the North, looking for an exit to the sea was my guess - and to cut Assad off from the coast, last Spring. I was talking to Shay (I think it was) about that a while back.

Hezbollah is like the Kurds, we are stuck with them whether we like it or not, and they are part of the government of Lebanon, one of the major political actors in the legitimated political system, and more to the point we have failed for decades to even put a dent in them, and so for that matter have the IDF and Israel. Generally, you get a bloody nose for trying it too. So it's better to get along. And, once you decide to live with each other, at least for the moment, it's better to talk.

The colonial arrangements in the Middle East (instituted after WWI and the French/British re-conquest of the area) are collapsing. People on the ground there understand this perfectly well, and they know their history and are looking to their interests. They will be happy to let us bomb their enemies for them, but they won't be taking orders.

Erdogan is talking about renewing the Ottoman caliphate. Putin wants to restore Russias influence in the near-abroad. The EU wants "growth". China wants to reassert itself. So does India. So do we all. The Kurds want a state, so do the Palestinians, so do a lot of others. The last hundred years was not good for empires, and the bigger they are, the more such issues they have to tear them apart.

Meanwhile, pretty much every place we have "helped" is falling apart, forming new nascent little states struggling to breath free. And in this environment, it is the Nasrallahs who everybody wants on their side, the Giaps, the guys who win dirty little wars.

The MIddle East is awash in unemployed young men, and Middle Eastern politicians think they should make excellent cannon fodder. It's going to be at least a regional war.

The Magistrates point about "how did Hezbollah get there" is well taken. Nasrallah is much more comfortable defending Lebanon than he would be sending his men to defend the Turkish border or the Kurds. He gets some heat for defending Assad as it is, but the ISIS guys did a good job of convincing the rest of Lebanon that maybe Hezbollah was not so bad.

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Jumblatt: Relations with Hezbollah excellent: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2014/Oct-02/272703-jumblatt-relations-with-hezbollah-excellent.ashx