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In reply to the discussion: Islamic State 'retreating' in key Syria town of Kobane [View all]The Magistrate
(95,247 posts)The government in Baghdad has no means whatever of enforcing authority over the Kurdish regions of Iraq, and has not had much for some time. It has been substantially autonomous now for almost a quarter century. It was under the control of Baghdad previously for less than three quarters of a century, and for much of that time, only loosely.
Obviously where friction would come is the question of Mosul. A century ago it was a Kurdish city. They want it back, and of course, it comes with a good deal of oil.
Iraq, as was Yugoslavia, is not by any means a natural country, but something cobbled together from disparate parts for someone else's momentary convenience. It has only ever been held together by force and fraud in judicious mixture.
Purely in relation to Iraq, all the I.S.I.L. eruption amounts to is the secession of the Sunni areas from the Baghdad government, or more to the point, their separation from the Shia region of Iraq. Taken together with the state of affairs in Kurdistan, the partition of Iraq is already more or less accomplished, and by popular rising and popular feeling. An armistice freezing the present front lines would look pretty close to the partition lines a sound and fair-minded geographer would draw up, if given the task.