PM tells Ukrainians: No NATO membership, armed groups to disarm

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20. Ukraine will be Federalized and Finlandized, in the metaphors being used.

Neutral and friendly with "everyone". There will be elections and a revised Constitution. Assuming that works out, that would be about the best possible outcome, for Ukraine, not being a political football for either side, able to control their own domestic affairs to some extent. Able to negotiate and play the sides off against each other. And avoiding being the site of a war.

For that, Putin does indeed get to keep Crimea, but he already had that, what he really got was a pretext to carry it through.

But I would not say yet that nothing can go wrong, that just seems to be what is being worked towards.