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In reply to the discussion: Iran Attack Decision Nears, Israeli Elite Locks Down [View all]Strelnikov_
(7,772 posts)The Iran attack has been marketed to the US populace as another 'shock and awe' event in that there may be some loss of US military, but overall it carries a risk similar to that of the attack on Iraq.
Problem is, there is a scenario where an attack on Iran could result in the collapse of the United States economy. The resultant violence and starvation could result in the deaths of millions.
My estimate of the current script the 'actors' are using is as follows:
- The US or Israel conduct 'limited' airstrikes on Iran, hitting mostly military and 'nuclear' sites.
- Iran (Supreme Leader/Assembly of Experts) know that the US/Israel cannot invade, and the air strikes will have to be 'limited' in nature to avoid a backlash in the Muslim world. They plan on playing this like Hizbollah in '06. That is, take the strikes, respond militarily in a very measured way as a show of resistance, and promote themselves as having resisted the 'crusaders' attack, thus making them the rightful leaders of the Ummah.
Problem is, war tends to go off script (WW I was to be over 'before the leaves fall', Iraq II, etc.).
All it would take is for a US naval commander or Revolutionary Guard officer to go off script (overreact) to trigger a conflict that would knock half of the worlds petroleum export capacity off-line essentially overnight.
The Kaiser, the Czar, the Habsburgs etc. did not survive the conflagration they started. Can the US 'leadership' be next?