General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Democrats Surging As Latest Poll Shows Them Up 6 Points On GOP In Midterm House Race [View all]Savannahmann
(3,891 posts)Look, I'm a sucker for good news as much as the next guy. But the fact is that the polling on individual races shows Democrats losing.
We'll start with the House shall we? Right now, the polling shows the Rethugs holding the House. So while we are popular as a party, apparently our candidates are not popular.
Let's look at the Senate. Many here underestimate how dangerous this election is for us. They're already talking about who to choose for 2016. Right now, the polling has it at 46 seats for the Dems, 47 for the Rethugs with 7 toss ups. That means whoever wins 4 of the tossups, wins the Senate. If you give the tossup to the current polling leader, the Rethugs win 51 to 49.
Now, we can't blame gerrymandering for that, because those are statewide races. Races in which Democrats held the seat are already so far gone as to be next to hopeless. We're down to hoping for a Hail Mary type of event to rescue the South Dakota and Montana Senate Seats.
Perhaps our party popularity will help us in the Governs races. Perhaps we're going to get big gains there? Not according to the polling we're not.
So the best that can be said is that people appear to prefer the Democratic Party, but don't like actual Democrat Politicians.
We read and comment on many posts on this board about Wendy Davis. There have been complaints that Abbot isn't even trying to go out and woo the public. The reason is he's in the lead. All he can do by going out is screw it up. By keeping the appearances to carefully scripted and controlled events he will win the Governor's Mansion in Texas.
Many times in the past I pointed out our strategy was ill conceived as a political party for the elections. Our success depended entirely upon the Rethugs screwing up. While that has happened in the past, it rarely happens often enough for it to be your big hope. This is the result. This is the result of your entire plan being based upon the opponent self destructing.
So lead the bleachers in rousing cheers about how we're going to win the big homecoming game. In the mean time, the other side is determined and working at winning the actual game, and their plans appear to be working better than our plans. Unless your idea of victory is this one poll, in which case yes, we won. Now, what kind of legislation do you think is going to come out of the Rethug Senate? I personally shudder to think what the Ryan budget will look like after being passed by such a body.
But we're popular, as a group. But when it comes to actually liking us enough to vote for us, not so much.