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Purveyor

(29,876 posts)
Thu Feb 21, 2013, 11:43 PM Feb 2013

Worst Drought in 1,000 Years Could Begin in Eight Years [View all]

Beginning in just eight years, we could see permanent climate conditions across the North American Southwest that are comparable to the worst megadrought in 1,000 years. (1)

The latest research from the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University published in December 2012 has some truly astounding news. The megadroughts referred to in the paper published in Nature Climate Change happened around about 900 to 1300 AD and are so extreme that they have no modern counterpart for comparison (these megadroughts will be referred to in the following as the "12th century megadrought&quot . The research was funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

We have been warned for decades that we would be facing a megadrought if we did not do something about climate pollution. We did not, and now according to the projections of a new study, that is just what the future may hold. And remember, projected conditions similar to the worst megadrought in 1,000 years would be the baseline conditions. Dry periods, which we normally refer to as drought times today, would be superimposed on top of the megadrought extremeness.

The Lamont-Doherty research not only includes one of the four new climate scenarios, but also uses the new high-resolution climate models that provide more detail and accuracy. Both will be found in the forthcoming 2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (IPCC 2013). The authors tell us about the new climate scenario:

--CLIP


MORE...

http://truth-out.org/news/item/14655-worse-drought-in-1000-years-could-begin-in-eight-years

38 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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I think it will be sooner Smilo Feb 2013 #1
Yep...Tahoe is bone dry too FirstLight Feb 2013 #4
I think we steal your water! Smilo Feb 2013 #28
It's scarier there than it is here in NM Warpy Feb 2013 #5
I hate people who plant grass Smilo Feb 2013 #29
Pouring money on lawn grass for the pleasure of mowing it Warpy Feb 2013 #30
if you don't mow ... it won't need much water ThomThom Feb 2013 #34
People have gone to tufts of ornamental grasses here Warpy Feb 2013 #36
trying to maintain a golf course lawn is just silly ThomThom Feb 2013 #37
This doesn't sound good LeftInTX Feb 2013 #2
Drought conditions chervilant Feb 2013 #3
Rain, rain go away... TexasTowelie Feb 2013 #6
12th century megadrought? Didn't this used to be called the medieval warm period? JVS Feb 2013 #7
Yes, but..... AverageJoe90 Feb 2013 #9
Forgive my skepticism, but.... AverageJoe90 Feb 2013 #8
Why is it starting in 8 years? LeftInTX Feb 2013 #10
I'm assuming you hadn't read the article? AverageJoe90 Feb 2013 #12
If you'd read the paper you'd know. joshcryer Feb 2013 #15
Now I've seen it. Still not convinced about 2021, though. AverageJoe90 Feb 2013 #17
It's interesting how you initially mentioned our current drought. joshcryer Feb 2013 #19
Fracking's gonna help a lot. aquart Feb 2013 #20
On another note sikofit3 Feb 2013 #27
I just grabbed the Ogallala svg file from Wikipedia. joshcryer Feb 2013 #35
Thank you! sikofit3 Feb 2013 #38
Wait until the aquifers underneath the Midwest run dry. Then we'll be in horrible problems. Selatius Feb 2013 #11
Which won't be easy to do, unfortunately. n/t AverageJoe90 Feb 2013 #13
Check out my post #15, I made an overlay awhile back. joshcryer Feb 2013 #16
I think it's very possible it already has started davidpdx Feb 2013 #14
No, not yet, it hasn't, not here in the States anyhow, and I'm not convinced it'll happen soon. AverageJoe90 Feb 2013 #18
Good news? It'll be tested / falsified in ... 8 short years. joshcryer Feb 2013 #22
What difference does it make if it happens now, in 8 years or in 30? lunatica Feb 2013 #23
And speaking of "faster than expected"... GliderGuider Feb 2013 #25
Not all, lunatica, not even close in fact. AverageJoe90 Feb 2013 #31
We may have a break or two in the current drought. joshcryer Feb 2013 #21
The current drought is affecting the Great Lakes as well... Earth_First Feb 2013 #24
Busting historic records, left and right...indeed. eom Purveyor Feb 2013 #26
And so goes the roll of the climate change dice.....n/t AverageJoe90 Feb 2013 #32
Is "permanent climate conditions" an actual term of art? Google hits all go back to the same source, slackmaster Feb 2013 #33
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