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(116,464 posts)

2. That doesn't necessarily follow.

Thu Dec 13, 2012, 10:10 AM

Dec 2012

A strong holiday season does wonders for the economy.

First, seasonal retail hiring was very strong in November (see 3rd graph below). There is a fairly strong correlation between seasonal hiring and holiday retail sales, and this record seasonal hiring suggests a solid holiday season.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/12/employment-report-more-positives-than.html

It's unlikely that the number will remain below 350,000, but it's possible to see numbers below 370,000, in line with the trend prior to Sandy.

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Jobless claims improve sharply, match four-year low [View all] ProSense Dec 2012 OP

That doesn't necessarily follow. ProSense Dec 2012 #2

I understand what you're saying, but ProSense Dec 2012 #4

Do you think the statisticians never thought of that? pinqy Dec 2012 #5

I'm not even sure statisticians think at all. nt. OldDem2012 Dec 2012 #6