Postcard from the Hispanic Working Class [View all]
Education polarization comes to Americas Latinos.
https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/postcard-from-the-hispanic-working
Its been widely noted that Biden has been running poorly among Hispanics
compared to 2020 when he carried this demographic by 23 points (which itself was a 16-point drop from Clintons 39-point margin over Trump among these voters in 2016). In the most recent
New York Times/Siena
poll, Bidens margin over Trump among Latinos is a slim 9 points. That is close to
Bidens average Hispanic lead in polls since the beginning of the year. Ive been curious about the role of Hispanic working-class (noncollege) voters in driving this trend. An underreported aspect of the Hispanic shift toward Trump in 2020 was how heavily it was concentrated among working-class voters.
In the Catalist data, there was a 19-point margin shift toward Trump among working-class voters but just 9 points among college-educated Hispanics. For the first time, Democrats did better overall among college Hispanics than among working-class Hispanicsa reverse class gap. Are these trends continuing in this campaign cycle? It's hard to get detailed data comparing working-class and college-educated Hispanicsthats rarely reported and most polls dont have adequate sample sizes. But
a new poll of 4,038 registered voters conducted by YouGov for
The Liberal Patriot and
Blueprint allows for a detailed comparison of these groups not just on Biden-Trump voting intentions but also on policy views and priorities. There are some big, big differences:
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