Nate Silver: 'It's numbers with their imperfections versus bullshit. MUST READ [View all]

[malaise]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/17/nate-silver-interview-election-data-statistics
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For weeks and months, the election had been "too close to call". Pundit after pundit declared that the election could "go either way". That it was "neck and neck". Only it wasn't. In the end, it turned out not to be neck and neck at all. Or precisely what Nate Silver had been saying for months. On election day, he predicted Obama had a 90.9% chance of winning a majority in the electoral votes and by crunching polling data he successfully predicted the correct result in 50 out of 50 states.

"You know who won the election tonight?" asked the MSNBC TV news anchor, Rachel Maddow. "Nate Silver."

Twitter went into meltdown. The blogosphere went Nate Silvertastic. Sales of his first book, The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction leapt 800% overnight and went to number two in the bestseller charts. And whole portions of the media decided that this wasn't just a personal triumph for Nate Silver – it was the triumph of the nerds. One man and his mathematical model had bested an entire political class of journalists, spin doctors, hacks and commentators.

Silver doesn't look much like America's latest and hottest new television celebrity. Or "the new boyfriend of the chattering classes", as the Washington Post called him. The 34-year-old Silver is a pretty convincing Clark Kent pre the Superman makeover. He's so unassuming, he shuffles, head bowed, into the room, looking almost embarrassed about the idea of being interviewed.

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DUer Statistical set me straight about Nate Silver back in 2010