Why we don't have to worry about Husted's Ohio idea (splitting up the EV) [View all]
In the modern era only the GOP has depended on Ohio not the Democrats. The closest that Democrats have come to depending on Ohio was in 1976, when Ohio had 25 WV and Carter had 297 EV. But under the division by district we would have lost far fewer than 25 EV. We won 10 CD that year and 7 of those were at least 60/40. Assume Carter only manage to win the 60/40 ones, we still would get 9 EV with the GOP getting 16. Instead of 297, Carter now has 281 and still wins.
The GOP on the other hand counted on Ohio twice (2000, and 2004). Bush got 271 EV, Gore 266, one abstained. Ohio had 21 EV. Democrats won 8 CD that year with none being even remotely close. But let's assume somehow Gore lost two of the 8 with no gains in the GOP districts. Gore now gets 6 EV to Bush's 15. Gore now wins with 272 EV without Florida. Yes, the Husted plan would have cost the GOP the election.
Kerry won 251 EV vs Bush's 286 with Ohio having 20 EV. Dems won 6 CD that year with GOP winning 12. So it wouldn't have cost Bush his reelection but it would have cut the margin from 35 to 24.
The GOP knows these numbers, Husted's plan is going no where.
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