2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPPP teaser about OH poll tomorrow
Ohio looks pretty darn close on the first night of our poll there. We'll do more calls tomorrow and have results in the evening
When we release the Ohio poll tomorrow there will be a breakdown of people who've already voted vs. have yet to vote
They can join Nate Silver under the bus tomorrow I guess.
Mario_Ordinario
(16 posts)Whatever.
LonePirate
(13,460 posts)Firebirds01
(576 posts)?
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)He has to have the best 90 minutes of his life on Tuesday.
Otherwise, this is going to get away from him in a hurry.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)PPP (D) 9/27 - 9/30 897 LV 3.3 49 45 Obama +4
Taken at a time when Obama was flying high prior to the first debate. So we'll have to see what it is tomorrow. They still have polling to do tomorrow.
mzmolly
(51,020 posts)under the "proverbial bus" tomorrow?
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)mzmolly
(51,020 posts)indicates Obama is losing Ohio.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Obama up 9.
Now, a good poll is anything showing him ahead and bad is sowing him behind.
Maybe the numbers will bounce back. But, Romney's bounce has cemented into a structural change in the race.
mzmolly
(51,020 posts)It would be nice if undecided America thought about more than the theatrics of Romney's "performance" in recent debates - wouldn't it??
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)the American consumer or voter.
AverageJoe90
(10,745 posts)Come on, man, have you been asleep since October 10th, or what?
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Yesterday was the best day of polling he's had. Thursday was the next best day. Etc.
That's movement, momentum. And what Obama offered up to slow it was effing Big Bird.
mzmolly
(51,020 posts)We'll see where we're at next week.
AverageJoe90
(10,745 posts)I just found about a massive ad-buy that Romney and co. did right after the elections ended.....that would explain the continued surge of the Romney campaign even after his debate bounce ended.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=139075
C'mon, man, wake the fuck up already.
AverageJoe90
(10,745 posts)Blaukraut
(5,695 posts)O 49
R 45
9/27 - 9/30
So they weren't all that impressive to begin with. Probably tightened to a two point margin, which would be in line with a few other Ohio polls. They also tweeted that they would do callbacks tomorrow, so their final result might not be as close as they hinted tonight.
Mario_Ordinario
(16 posts)where does impressive kick in?
budkin
(6,737 posts)I just don't understand.
Daniel537
(1,560 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)to be re-elected. He didn't act like he thought he deserved it.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)which I guess means he should win and Obama should lose in your view.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)He'll be a terrible president and people will die and suffer due to him.
Wish Obama had thought about that kind of thing when he decided to cancel debate prep for a field trip to the Hoover Dam.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)Luckily we all don't have screwed up judgment.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)The ad war had worked to perfection. The convention was a huge success.
Then he got up there, man vs man with Mitt Romney, and crumbled.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)Gallup had the race tied in mid September: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251138192
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)ProSense
(116,464 posts)He was tied in Sept among registered voters, he's now ahead.
Check again: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251138192
There was no likley voter poll for Gallup until this week.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)So there's that.
Bottom line: Obama will be better on Tuesday than he was in Denver. That's a low bar.
But, will he be good, let alone good enough? He hasn't prepared or practiced for this debate either, so . . .
woolldog
(8,791 posts)ChimpersMcSmirkers
(3,328 posts)the situation he's in. He'll do well. Whether it's good enough we'll have to see. Greek is right about the ad war. The Obama campaign had it won and for whatever reason, Obama blew the debate. I think it was a combination of his staff telling him to play it safe and him being over-confident. He has a chance to bring it back and it'll be a challenge I think. The campaign seems to be coming down to this debate. Pukes are fired-up after thinking it was lost. Obama has to not only get the base energized but he has to win back some of "independents" that saw his debate and ran for the hills.
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)AverageJoe90
(10,745 posts)UnrepentantLiberal
(11,700 posts)WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)and that yes, Obama fumbled the first one but it's pretty clear he is not going to do the same thing in the next two. Biden did a great job refuting the GOP in his debate IN HIS WAY--Obama will pick up on that in his debate and do it HIS WAY. People who think Obama is going to go into the next debate acting like Joe Biden are mistaken. He will refute Romney but he will do it in a way that is consistent with his personality--and also with the type of forum it is--town hall.
budkin
(6,737 posts)GreenPartyVoter
(72,388 posts)another blustery Repub they loved. Remember **?
jsmirman
(4,507 posts)I talked to a couple from NE Florida tonight - Dems who initially said they weren't voting for the President because of the debate - this shit is painfully real.
I think I had them at legitimately undecided when we were done, because I can fucking sell.
He's damaged himself badly. I hope and think he can undo some of that damage on Tuesday. His political life - and the real lives of so many of us who are completely dependent on him coming through for us - depends on it.
If he loses, I lose the Court for possibly the rest of my lifetime, my environment is fucked, animals are even more fucked than they were under Obama, the food supply becomes beyond perilous to all consumers including yours truly, women are fucked, and the world may possibly end, because Romney should in no way shape or form get the chance to start WWIII. Which he damn well might.
That better fucking mean something to our guy.
I will fight to the end if he will. I have every expectation he will show that willingness.
woolldog
(8,791 posts)in not voting for him based on 1 debate? We're not electing a debater in chief after all.
Good job, btw.
jsmirman
(4,507 posts)felt that the economy he sees all around him (he's in construction) isn't good and Obama gave him no reason to think he was the man to improve on that, and no indication that he had a fucking pulse to take on the challenge.
That's terrible.
Now there are counterpoints - please see my post on the entire conversation here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021528095#post18
There are many things I thought he should be considering, and he was open-minded enough (read, also, not that firmly decided) to listen.
Some might think he was just being polite, but I don't think so. I think I put - at minimum - the seeds of doubt into him, and he's at least thinking that Romney might be a very, very bad choice.
And I think I made arguments that resonated with his wife, and so maybe her vote got pushed further to our side, and maybe her opinion will work further on him.
I sold hard, but very polite and very much in the vein of I know exactly where you're coming from. Which, at least in my experience, is the right way to sell on the campaign trail.
My hope and feeling is that I convinced him to watch the 2nd debate.
Now Obama better fucking deliver.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)August: Obama Maintains 3 Point Lead in Ohio
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_081212.pdf
September:
Obamas lead up to 5 in Ohio
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_9912.pdf
Obama leads by 4 in Ohio
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_930.pdf
If it doesn't show Romney leading, then it's cool.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)for Obama when everything was peaches and cream prior to the first debate. My guess is that it will be Obama ahead 1-2 points which isn't really that much of a shift. Also early voting numbers will be included, which if PPP is like Survey USA (which showed Obama ahead by 1-point) and NBC which had Obama up by 6--it should show a strong early vote for Obama.
Look it's increasingly looking like the media is going to get the close election they wanted. I think similar to 2004 when the incumbent won by 2-points. So yes, the battleground states are going to be close if that is the case. I just hate the idea of the usual suspects around here freaking out and bringing everybody else down in the process.
If Obama has a good Tuesday night you could see all polls change quickly as well.
woolldog
(8,791 posts)I'm going to completely lose it.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)It must be nice to be inured from the havoc a Romney presidency would bring.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)at the President for failing to take that debate as seriously as he needed to. He blew off debate prep for stuff like visiting the Hoover Dam. It was a betrayal of everyone who had put their trust in him. He sent out countless emails asking people "are you in?"
When it came time to face Mitt Romney, Barack Obama was not in when it counted.
I flew myself to Iowa in the pit of winter in 2007 to help him win the nomination, and goddamn it I regret that and will the rest of my life.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)ProSense
(116,464 posts)Shivering Jemmy
(900 posts)It's too much for you and it seems you can't handle the stress. Find another hobby.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)writes3000
(4,734 posts)You take perverse pleasure in it. You go to sleep i assume. And then you start spewing your hatred all over again.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Then the President decided it was more important to visit the Hoover Dam than to prepare for his debate.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)You apparently were panicking then too.
woolldog
(8,791 posts)for criticisms
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)But this stuff is worth getting passionate about.
woolldog
(8,791 posts)I'm angry at Obama too. In fact, I haven't been happy with the way he's governed since the ACA. But he's what we've got, and the alternative is too dangerous to just give up. Hang in there
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)We can only hope and expect he will do better.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)will get elected to the Senate in November--I'm convinced it'll be Gillibrand or Warren.
I was around in 1980, and that debate felt all too familiar. That feeling a person gets when they know who's going to win and who's going to lose. Had that feeling after the RNC in 2004. After the DC-area primaries in 2008 and then when McCain suspended his campaign in the fall.
Got that feeling at that debate. I've been hoping for the data to turn around, but ten days later quite the opposite.
And this was totally preventable. Some tightening yes, but this?
Sigh.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)Plus Obama gets two more shots at the apple.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)But Obama just doesn't seem to have it unless he's on the stump preaching to the choir. He wasn't good at the Univision forum. DNC speech was workmanlike at best.
And he hasn't prepared for this debate.
It just seems like he gets the yips when trying to persuade people to vote for him.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)Gas lines, incipient inflation, foreign policy debacles.
Look, I am disappointed. President Obama wasn't my first choice but I say this from the bottom of my heart; the enemies he has made has made me love him.
Apres Barack Obama le deluge.
jsmirman
(4,507 posts)Totally unfair and wrong.
The failures of the first debate fall under the category of criminal stupidity, imo, and I think people like us are extra furious, because we've put real skin in the game.
But Obama and his advisers are not clueless. There is NO WAY that he will not be prepared for this debate. They have the message, loud and clear from all sides - donors, other politicians, the polls, etc.
Like I told everyone, I guarantee that multiple large donors tore Obama up something fierce over the phone - and their calls get answered.
I can't guarantee how he'll do, although I hope and think it will be much better.
I don't see any way that he isn't as prepared as he's ever been on Tuesday. He knows he's in a fight for his life.
That he put himself there is tough to take, but it is what it is now, and don't see any way that they wave the white flag here.
He'll be ready.
DonCoquixote
(13,616 posts)I get a creepy feeling that for Hillary to stop challenging for 2008, some devil's deal was made where Obama took in Geitner, Rahm, and Hill herself, who frankly, made damned sure that forgien and domestic policy were not changed. Obama and Hillary are wonks, technocrats, with them both lacking and needing Bill Clinton's talent for reducing ideas to common terms. That does nto make them bad polticians, but in America, we want someone to appeal to our glands as well as our brains.
That being said, I doubt an extra hour of prep would have made a difference. Mitt was given the credibility going in, because the news wanted a horserace. Now, I did not slam your point, so hear me out here.
Do you think that the whole coordinated pillorying by MSNBC was an accident? I am not saying Karl Rove planned anything, but the fact is that whatever flaw Obama had, the Eds and Tweetys cranked up to eleven, why, because, they are paid to appeal to the glands, the fears, the rages. They are not just paid to do that, but they are paid to ensure THAT is the level of American political thought. In other words, MSNBC is a lesser degree of stupid, but it is still about keeping thought managed, rather than loosened.
That being said, Obama and Joe could have worked on things different, mostly by ABANDONING THE PRETENSE of debate. America wants wrong and strong, and Obama needs to project that.
I respect realism, however, there is one thing many of the DOOOm posters do. They keep acting like Obama could have killed Mitt that night. The fact that Mitt's performance was at best C+ disproves that. There is a fact that needs to be repeated like a mantra:
The media wants a horserace...aum...the media wants a horserace....aum
and why, because Citizens united made sure they will get RICH.
Let's not forget, if this thign became a 269 ton 269 mess, with Florida and Ohio stealing ballots, the media will sing Hallelujah. They have what James madison would call a "vested interest in disorder."
The only recourse we have is what we always had, GOTV, and talking to people. However, that is really what we should have counted on all along. Polls are illusions at best, bad or good, as, for all their math, they have so many variables that it becomes impossible to tell the cooked results from the simply useless. As I have said before,the silver lining her is that now, we are not lulled into complaceny by the polls. I feared this, as I remember how in 2000 the polls said that Florida should have been a cakewalk for Gore, only to see the GOP break yet another low. This panic can be used to make sure we do not play hare to the GOP turtle.
Now, we can avoid making the mistake Obama made, sitting on the ball and running out the clock. We need to go all out smash mouth.
mzmolly
(51,020 posts)right?
Races generally tighten. That's not unusual.
CthulhusEvilCousin
(209 posts)Repeating a talking point everyone, including the President, has already acknowledged? If they were out there saying they did awesome, I'd agree with you. But you're beating a dead horse.
Voice for Peace
(13,141 posts)and you just couldn't pull it off, on that day,
not well enough to fulfill your job or your promises?
And people were disappointed and angry with you?
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)achievements and why I would be the right person to hire for the job.
If Obama had put that little thought and prepared so little for a deposition or witness at a trial, he'd be guilty of malpractice.
He wasn't in. He didn't act like he believed he deserves a second term.
Voice for Peace
(13,141 posts)For example, you really don't know his preparedness,
nor what else he had on his plate that day.
I don't know if there is someone else who could have
done better, but it wasn't enough to rattle my confidence
in him, I'm sorry you are feeling so gloomy -- because
even if your worst opinions of him are true, would you
choose someone else? Or just let it go to default,
and not vote at all?
BeyondGeography
(39,406 posts)Tuesday.
budkin
(6,737 posts)I believe that Obama can fight back. I still can't believe a debate can do that much damage though. Just goes to show you how awful he was.
mzmolly
(51,020 posts)... Presidential Election
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/news/Marist%20OH%2010-12.pdf
Obama up six in Ohio as of 10/11/2012. Granted, this is one poll, but It's been a steady (win) for Obama.
UrbScotty
(23,980 posts)It will be interesting to see how things move in Ohio, but for now, if anyone is the favorite there, it is undoubtedly Obama.
mzmolly
(51,020 posts)welcome.
I hope that PPP will have good news in their poll results - tomorrow as well.
MFM008
(19,848 posts)I dont care what PPPPPPPPPeeeee says. Just that and Iowa and O gets to 270.
Jennicut
(25,415 posts)It will make a difference. Dems also have an advantage with early voting in Iowa. We need Iowa, Ohio and of course to hold onto Wisconsin and New Hampshire. We do not need FL, VA, CO, NV, etc. Nevada looks like it might stay on our side. I would hate for it to be this close but I would not panic if we kept NV, OH, IA and NH. VA will be very, very close. FL may be Romney territory due to the older age of the people there (older people vote more for Repubs). CO has more registered Repubs, very hard to tell in that state.
Blaukraut
(5,695 posts)So even if he ends up leading in the upcoming PPP poll, it won't be by much. When all Ohio polls in the coming weeks will have him ahead and at the 50% mark, I'll concede he may win there, but not until then. Same goes for the other firewall state polls. (WI, IA, NV)
woolldog
(8,791 posts)either one or both. They're 6 EVs each.
budkin
(6,737 posts)But I think he takes NV too
Response to geek tragedy (Original post)
Post removed
MFM008
(19,848 posts)Id rather overdose than put money on Romney. geez.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Azathoth
(4,611 posts)I'm as pissed as the next guy at Obama's inexcusable non-performance last week, but this is starting to get out of control. If Ohio decides it's willing to vote for a corporate parasite who eagerly demanded Detroit go bankrupt over the guy who actually saved the fucking backbone of the American car industry, then we might as well throw in the towel.
I just can't fathom how 90 fucking minutes of poor debating caused a billion-dollar campaign to collapse and convinced millions of people to switch their vote overnight to a guy who is on tape expressing outright contempt and hatred for them. I'm getting the distinct feeling that something else is at work here, like there was a submerged pocket of resentment toward Obama that was suddenly ruptured, almost as if a lot of people out there wanted to vote against him, but needed some legitimate justification for doing so.
Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)We have to take responsibility here too. Look at Biden - they were ready to call that debate a draw and tie but we were pumped and got our red meat and slowly pundits started conceding Biden won, sorta. The two polls with Biden winning are not huge margins either. The difference is we fought the narrative right away and maintained enthusiasm and the media corrected itself a notch. Last week the base shit itself completely and sided with the pundits. That sealed the narrative, validated Romney (who was going to win the debate based on precedence anyway), and demoralized the base. The O campaign did not see out part coming. They figured Obama would lose anyway and hopefully could break even at best. But the base fed the narrative into a spiral. We can't pretend that we are not part of the political media feedback when it's convenient. Pundits and news sites track DU and Dkos, etc. pull stories and make statements based on what they read here. We freaked and they knew it and they put a big fat Base Approved stamp on the crushing defeat narrative. Sorry but Obama as scapegoat doesn't cut it. We reeked of fear and became chum in the water.
Now we have hold ranks and push like hell with enthusiasm and gotv. And for god's sake whether Obama gives you a stiffy or not next week STFU and yeah, clap louder. People can make 'fair and balanced' critique when he's sworn in.
Azathoth
(4,611 posts)The response from our side validated the loss and made it an uncontested fact rather than a hotly disputed political assertion. If we had fallen into lockstep and pushed back, regardless of what we actually belived, then we might have attenuated some of the damage. But that's the problem with living in the reality-based community. The Right is used to living in a closed information environment in which reality is shaped through sheer force of will, and when threatened they instinctively fall into lockstep behind their authority figure. We're not wired that way, we don't default into that mode when caught off guard.
It's not like there is an objective way to determine who actually won the debate.
Screaming how Obama supposedly lost is not going to do any good.
Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)when we have been in the rare position of being on offense for so long. Being caught 'off-guard' is something Dems (at least the leadership) are very good at. The base doesn't know how to handle confidence and winning and for a split second we thought the truth would out and that the media would give a fair shake. Nothing to do with 'reality-based'. That's just a code word for fear-based thinking, negative motivation. Whenever I hear Dems use 'reality' it's always in conjunction with a negative projection. If it's positive, it's don't be complacent, etc. Constantly negative motivation and projection borne of a party that is used to losing. Having your candidate's back is not lockstep, even your analogy is negative as though wed be fascists for backing the pres. Dems need to change their whole way of thinking. For a brief moment this summer there was a glimpse of a possible future for the party - I have never been prouder than when Reid and all the Dems came out against Romney in unison again and again and didn't let up.
Azathoth
(4,611 posts)Democrats have watched defeat get snatched from the jaws of victory many, many times, and deep down they are always looking for it to happen again. But the criticism of Obama was mostly fair; he did fuck up, badly. He walked into a critical debate in front of 70 million people and largely refused to stand up for himself and his supporters. Pointing that out isn't "fear-based thinking" -- it's acknowledging objective reality. Dealing with an unexpected external threat like bad jobs numbers, an October surprise, etc. is one thing. In those situations, you rally behind the big cheese and stand united. But it's something else to march onto the battlefield only to watch your general stride out in front of his forces and preemptively surrender to the other guy. That's a demoralizing gut punch, and claiming it as a victory is not an honest or factually-grounded reaction, even if doing so might be politically advantageous. Having someone's back even when they don't have yours is the definition of lockstep.
brindis_desala
(907 posts)Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)Last edited Sat Oct 13, 2012, 10:08 AM - Edit history (1)
"instinctively fall(ing) into lockstep behind (an) authority figure" is ideologically anathema to progressives.Just like the proverbial herd of cats. Democratic strategists and leaders must sometimes feel like these cat herders:
Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)There you have it--from the pundits at MSNBC to the posters on progressive forums, the narrative was set and reinforced. Self-fulfulling failure.
daligirl519
(285 posts)Yours is the most intelligent and articulate explanation I have read regarding this madness. I think it should have its own thread so that others might read it.
vadermike
(1,417 posts)Then we cannot panic about this poll tommorow.. hopefully its close... o +1 or 2 i'll take at this point.. but Obama MUST deliver on Tues and we Dems and dem-leaning pundits must get the Pres back and dfend him to the last, .. hopefully he does well enough or better and Romney can STFU and we can go on to beat him in a few weeks.. if not .. then I don't know.. i am truly scared for my country right now!
DisabledAmerican
(452 posts)You have a poster who is passing on conspiracy theories of Obama not preparing for Debates. Some how she thinks he skipped Debate Prep. This is a violation of TOS rules and guidelines here at this website. The Poster is willing to pass these conspiracy theories on. Post here.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251138625#post15
and here
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251138625#post48
Violate the guidelines of this website. PLEASE PASS THESE ONTO A ADMIN. Conspiracy Theories worthy of Free Republic should not be allowed on this website. The post of her comments go beyond concern about the debate. Report this Thread Admittedly.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)It sounds like they are just polling tonight and tomorrow night.
Perhaps a 3rd night would be in order.
MjolnirTime
(1,800 posts)mgcgulfcoast
(1,127 posts)FBaggins
(26,823 posts)out of a two-day sample.
I think they expect to release tonight.
On edit - oh... and they're doing battleground state polling all week.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)Lex
(34,108 posts)Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)Ohio voters think Biden won the debate Thursday night 46-37, including 44-32 with independents
A-Schwarzenegger
(15,596 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)Better go dig up another poll!
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