October 31, 2012

Is this race breaking open?

Everyone has said for months that there was a possibility that the race could break open late. Most pundits assumed (of course) that it would be in Romney's direction. But it has been a very long time since the President has had a polling day this strong. He clearly has momentum. I think 300+ electoral college votes are very possible.



In addition. Think about this.

Karl Rove has not bought any ad time in Wisconsin to close the race.

Team Romney is up with adds in MN, MI, and PA. These are places they have not even thought about until now, as they frantically search for a path to 270.

Want further proof of the above conclusion? Team Romney is now buying add time in NM. YES NEW MEXICO! What does that tell you.

Today, Romney is in Florida. A place he was suppose to have wrapped up by now. After today he heads back to VA, another place he was suppose to have already in his column.


Finally, OH was closed shut today to the Romney campaign. Romney's desperation with his jeep add tells us this. The polling is conclusive. The only reason why OH is not put solidly in Obama's column is because that would mean the race is over. And yes, many of us still can't believe OH is this solidly behind the President. If these same numbers were coming out of almost any other state, nobody would have any problems coloring that state blue. The only hesitation is because it's OH, and thus, we ignore the apparent math and still give Romney a hypothetical shot.


Question to DU?

Are we seeing the start of this race breaking open in the Presidents direction?

October 31, 2012

New PPP Poll: IA-Obama 50% Romney 45%/WI-Obama 51% Romney 46%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-5-in-wisconsin-and-iowa.html




New Public Policy Polling surveys in Wisconsin and Iowa, conducted on behalf of Health Care for America Now, find Barack Obama leading by 5 points in each state. In Iowa the spread is 50/45, representing a 3 point increase in Obama’s advantage compared to a week ago. In Wisconsin he’s at 51% to Mitt Romney’s 46%, almost identical to 51/45 on the previous poll.

October 31, 2012

Joe Scarborough calls Nate Silver an ideologue and joke. Silver responds on PBS (with video)

Nate Silver was on PBS's Charlie Rose show. I recored the part where he answers the attacks from Morning Joe.

The video is posted here.

&feature=youtu.be


Sorry its a little sloppy. I'm not an internet video expert by a long shot.

October 31, 2012

New Poll PA: Obama 48% Romney 44%

There is a new poll out of PA from Franklin and Marshall.

Obama 48%

Romney 44%


http://lancasteronline.com/article/local/767700_New-Franklin---Marshall-poll-shows-Romney-closes-gap-on-Obama-in-Pennsylvania.html


I still don't think we are at risk of losing PA. At this point in the race, a 4-6 point lead in a state the size of PA is real good. But we are not likely to have the margin here we had in 2008.


For scale:

2004-Kerry won PA by 2.5%

2000- Gore won PA by 4.2%

October 31, 2012

I need help finding a global warming movie

About 1.5 years ago, HBO ran a great movie about climate change.

It told the life story of a girl starting when she was very young focusing on how climate change affected her life and the life of the planet in the future. It was 2 hours long and one of the best (what I would call a documentary) I have ever seen.

I would like to get a copy of this for my parents. But for the life of me, I can't remember the name of the movie. Nor can I find it on the HBO website or with a google search.

The movie was fantastic and in my view a must watch. It was an animated movie. And it did a great job explaining how climate change will impact all of us and future generations.


For those who may have seen the movie, what is going on this week is literally right from the storyline!



Any help finding this HBO production would be great


Thank you!

October 30, 2012

Honest question... Does Christie want Romney to win on Tuesday?

Color me cynical.

Everyone is aware that many people who know Romney personally, don't like him.

During the 2008 GOP primary, it was well known that John McCain and Mike Huckabee hated Romney well beyond standard political means.

During the 2012 primary, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich both had a personal dislike of Romney. Although to their credit, both are currently on board with Romney's campaign. But do we doubt they would turn against Romney if they had the opportunity? Currently Ron Paul, the one true friend we thought Romney had during the primaries, has refused to endorse him.


That brings me to Christie.


Governor Christie has been the top spokesperson for Romney. But at the first opportunity to jump ship (pardon the pun), Christie seemingly can't wait to throw Romney and his campaign overboard!


The bottom line is Governor Christie does not want Romney to win. He wants 2016 to be an open election. I think Bobby Gindal does too. If you are Romney, you have to feel as though you have been stabbed in the back. But lets be honest, the guy seems to rub everyone the wrong way.


Romney reminds me of that classic rich guy who is sitting on the psychiatrist's couch and can't answer this one simple question from the doctor...... "Through all of your years of making money, did you ever make any friends?"


Yes, I know the storm is serious.

And yes, I have no doubt Obama is doing an excellent job coordinating the relief effort with Christie.

But it seemed to me that Christie really went out of his way to make sure America new Obama was doing a great job. And he had no problem slamming Romney even on FOX.

Remember, folks, Christie was the keynote speaker at the GOP convention!

Call me cynical, but at the first opportunity, Christie couldn't jump ship from the Romney campaign fast enough.


BTW... I think Christie is telling all of us who is going to win next week.

Think about it. Would Christie be be this cold to Romney if he thought he was going to be President in 2 months? The clean up work and disaster relief effort is going to take years to complete. He will need federal help for the foreseeable future. He will need a President on his side. Governor Christie is a smart man. And we just saw what side he is betting on.

October 29, 2012

Anderson Cooper's daytime talk show cancelled due to low ratings.

Anderson Cooper's daytime show "Anderson Live" has been canceled, the New York Times reported Monday.

The syndicated show, which debuted last fall and is currently in its second season, will not return after next summer. A studio executive who spoke to the Times on the condition of anonymity cited low ratings as the reason for the decision.

The move comes after an attempt to shake things up for the second season, which started in September. The show changed its name to "Anderson Live," debuted a new format starring Cooper with a different co-host every day, and moved to a different studio. That was not enough to jumpstart ratings, apparently, especially as "Anderson Live" went up against a slew of new daytime shows.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/29/anderson-cooper-canceled-daytime_n_2039762.html


?4










CNN seems to fail at everything.
I wonder what Wolf Blitzer would say about this?

October 29, 2012

We predicted it last night! You guys knew Ras would cook the books. OH Poll: R+2

Scotty Rasmussen has to make sure he gets paid. That means giving his constituents what they want to see.


Here is the latest poll of Ohio from the Hous of Ras....


Romney 50%

Obama 48%




http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president

It's interesting that Romney somehow took the lead in OH, at the exact same time he lost 2 points in Scotty boy's national tracker. Yea.. that makes a lot of sense.



Have at it!


Edit to add:

Here is the bulk of the survey. (I don't want to contribute to any hits on his site.)

Nearly one-in-three Ohio voters (32%) have already cast their ballots. Obama leads 62% to 36% among these voters. Romney has a large lead among those who still plan to vote. The question of who wins Ohio may come down to whether enough Romney voters get to the polls on Election Day to overcome the president’s lead among early voters.

Scott Rasmussen has noted that “Wisconsin May Be The New Ohio.”To win the election, Romney will have to win at least one of these two battleground states.

Among all Ohio voters, Romney now has a 12-point lead over the president in voter trust – 53% to 41% - when it comes to the economy. Last week, he had just a seven-point advantage among voters in the state when they were asked which candidate they trusted more to deal with the economy.

Romney’s also trusted more by eight points in the areas of job creation and energy policy but leads Obama by just two when it comes to housing issues.

National security has been an area where the president has typically had an advantage over Romney this year. But, the Republican challenger now has a 52% to 42% advantage on the issue.

Win an IPad. Take the Rasmussen Challenge.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Ohio was conducted on October 28, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Obama carried Ohio by a 51% to 47% margin in 2008, but just 46% of the state’s voters now approve of the job he is doing. Fifty-one percent (51%) disapprove. This includes Strong Approval from 29% and Strong Disapproval from 44%, giving the president a slightly worse job approval rating in Ohio than he earns nationally.

Forty-seven percent (47%) have a favorable opinion of the president and 52% have an unfavorable view. Those figures include 32% with a Very Favorable opinion and 42% who have a Very Unfavorable view of him.

Romney is viewed favorably by 53% and unfavorably by 45%, including 40% with a Very Favorable opinion of the former Massachusetts governor and 32% with a Very Unfavorable one.

Romney leads by 14 points among male voters in Ohio but trails by eight among female voters. Voters not affiliated with either of the major parties prefer the president 50% to 46%.

Fifteen percent (15%) of all voters in the state now rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent, while 49% view it as poor. But 41% consider their own finances good or excellent, compared to 17% who regard their finances as poor.

October 28, 2012

Breaking on CNN... Ohio is now tied!!!

Here are the last 6 polls out of Ohio.



Time Magazine-Obama+5

Public Policy Polling-Obama+4
CNN-Obama +4.................................................... (Poll margin of error 3.5)

ARG-Obama+2

Purple Strategies –Obama+2

Gravis Marketing-Obama+1


All of these polls were completed AFTER the 49-49 Ohio poll which was released today but completed last week prior to the 3rd debate. Although that didn't stop "Meet The Press" from treating it like it was breaking news this morning.


Yup, it looks like a tie to me. Clearly Romney has momentum!





The image above is downright laughable!








Yes... Ohio is definitely tied. NO DOUBT ABOUT IT!

October 28, 2012

New Poll Ohio: PPP O-51 R-47

PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls
Our new Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 51-47, up from 49-48 last week


http://twitter.com/ppppolls