May 10 Quinnipiac Swing State Polls - Go Bernie!

[floppyboo]

May 10 Quinnipiac Swing State Polls


And its going to be good day today for democracy in WV!

http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/search-releases/search-results/release-detail?ReleaseID=2345&What=&strArea=9;28;10;&strTime=0

May 10, 2016 - Clinton-Trump Close In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds Quinnipiac University

--- FLORIDA: Clinton 43 - Trump 42; Sanders 44 - Trump 42
OHIO: Clinton 39 - Trump 43; Sanders 43 - Trump 41
PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 43 - Trump 42; Sanders 47 - Trump 41

In a race marked by wide gender, age and racial gaps, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are running neck and neck in the key presidential Swing States of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont runs stronger against the likely Republican nominee, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

Clinton and Trump both have negative favorability ratings among voters in each state, compared to Sanders' split score, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states.

[Peace Patriot]

1. Sanders beats Trump in all 3 swing states. Clinton loses to Trump in Ohio.

And Sanders beats Trump by bigger margins than Clinton in Florida and Pennsylvania. (Sanders by 2 pts in Florida, to Clinton's 1 pt, and Sanders by 6 pts in Pennsylvania, to Clinton's 1 pt.)

It's close, though. But that is why these are called "swing states." Clinton vs Trump is very close. Sanders vs Trump is less close.

The latest national polls have Sanders walloping Trump by twice the margins that Clinton does, with Clinton losing to Trump in one poll (Rasmussen). National polls would include "blue" states where Sanders' policies and persona would likely be popular. But I haven't seen a breakdown of the national polls by state, nor the strictly state matchup polls. I also haven't seen how these national matchup polls, and the individual state matchup polls, may correlate with electoral votes. That would be interesting, since Sanders' appeal has some non-traditional aspects to it. For instance, Sanders is clearly to the left of Clinton but did much better in NY in all the rural counties, and not in what we would presume to be the leftist cities--if we can trust the NY vote (--and I'm not at all sure we can). It is broadly true, though, that Sanders draws far beyond the traditional Democratic base. He has drawn independents (now 40+% of the electorate), new voters and disaffected voters, wherever they are located, and it would be interesting to see where they are located. I'm not sure it would be all big cities. He has rural appeal (--his plainspeaking style, his blunt truths, his ties to VT farmers, his sympathy with hunters).

[jfern]

2. And these are all states Bernie lost by double digits in the primary

The difference between them will be even greater in states that Bernie won in the primary.

[floppyboo]

3. I expect they would be greater!

PA and FL both closed primaries. Ohio semi-open, but if memory serves, didn't a bunch of indies in OH vote Kasich to keep Trump out?

[merrily]

8. Yep. Great point.

[merrily]

7. So? Only beating Trump will get a Democrat to the White House.

Once again, Democrats seem more anxious to nominate Hillary than to win the general.

[Plucketeer]

9. That really IS it, eh?

Place the Democratic Crown on the per-ordained and LET THE FESTIVITIES BEGIN! Ladies and gentlemen: we have ourselves a female winner!!!


Wait ----- what? There's another election in November? For what?

[ViseGrip]

4. This is a very real scenario. Now there are six quick op's on her winning.

And of course....this is a quite thread.

This needs to be kicked all day....to MSM....where they only give Hillary's numbers in this poll! They are omitting Bernie on MSM in this polling. It's damning for Hillary, but it explains those numbers about her.

[floppyboo]

6. I posted it also over in GD-P - go rec it there too! Or especially there!

Getting tired of the desperation over in GD-P. Made the mistake of commenting, I thought within the bounds of acceptable, then hit ignore. Wrong order of operations! Ignore list growing to avoid any more hides.

[agracie]

10. K&R

[floppyboo]

5. And then there is the Gallup favorability polls! Go Bernie!

Amoung dems/leaners
Hillary oct/nov = +63 april +36
Sanders march +63

That's with the party's base! Not including independents!