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Sat Sep 8, 2012, 08:33 PM

Some more interesting tidbits from Nate Silver's 538 blog....added in EV totals

Last edited Sat Sep 8, 2012, 10:10 PM - Edit history (2)

This is current percent chance of taking the state (darkest to lightest blue): (I am going to add EVs and totals by groups of 10)

Illinois - 100% 20 EV
New York - 100% 29 EV
Maryland - 100% 10 EV
Vermont - 100% 3 EV
DC - 100% 3 EV
Hawaii - 100% 4 EV
California - 99.9% 55 EV
Rhode Island - 99.9% 4 EV
Delaware - 99.9% 3 EV
Massachusetts - 99.6% 11 EV
Maine - 99.1% 4 EV
Washington - 98.9% 12 EV
Connecticut - 98.5% 7 EV
New Jersey - 97.7% 14 EV
New Mexico - 97.6% 5 EV
Oregon - 96.9% 7 EV
Minnesota - 96.5% 10 EV
Michigan -95.2% 16 EV
Pennsylvania - 93.3% 20 EV

So those states over 90% total 237 EVs

New Hampshire - 84.8% 4 EV
Nevada - 84.5% 6 EV
Wisconsin - 83.2% 10 EV

Add in 80-90% probability - another 20 - to 257

Virginia - 75.3% 13 EV
Ohio - 74.8% 18 EV
Iowa - 74.3% 6 EV
Colorado - 74.1% 9 EV

Add in 70-80% probability - another 46 - takes us to 313 EV - but look! Even if it is JUST IA and CO....gets him to 272! Meaning Obama wins without OH, VA, FL or NC!

Florida - 65.5% 29 EV

And that gets us to 342.

With the only other state close -

North Carolina - 42.6%

Nothing else looks even in play. Pretty clear where the money should be spent!

I posted this because it was a bit surprising to me to see how solid things are already looking - even as the DNC bounce has yet to fully play out!

This also demonstrates pretty clearly how Mitt has hardly any realistic path at all, whereas Obama has many!

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Reply Some more interesting tidbits from Nate Silver's 538 blog....added in EV totals (Original post)
NRaleighLiberal Sep 2012 OP
russspeakeasy Sep 2012 #1
struggle4progress Sep 2012 #2
Marsala Sep 2012 #3
speedoo Sep 2012 #4
orpupilofnature57 Sep 2012 #5
budkin Sep 2012 #6
Scootaloo Sep 2012 #51
Ian62 Sep 2012 #7
longship Sep 2012 #13
Ian62 Sep 2012 #15
coalition_unwilling Sep 2012 #49
Ian62 Sep 2012 #19
TroyD Sep 2012 #8
greatauntoftriplets Sep 2012 #9
abumbyanyothername Sep 2012 #10
longship Sep 2012 #11
abumbyanyothername Sep 2012 #12
longship Sep 2012 #16
abumbyanyothername Sep 2012 #18
longship Sep 2012 #21
NRaleighLiberal Sep 2012 #24
mythology Sep 2012 #44
Webster Green Sep 2012 #53
Ian62 Sep 2012 #14
mucifer Sep 2012 #17
landolfi Sep 2012 #20
SunSeeker Sep 2012 #22
NRaleighLiberal Sep 2012 #23
morningfog Sep 2012 #27
NRaleighLiberal Sep 2012 #25
Warren Stupidity Sep 2012 #26
morningfog Sep 2012 #28
NRaleighLiberal Sep 2012 #29
CoffeeCat Sep 2012 #32
TroyD Sep 2012 #39
CoffeeCat Sep 2012 #41
craigmatic Sep 2012 #30
tavalon Sep 2012 #43
Iliyah Sep 2012 #31
Atman Sep 2012 #33
NRaleighLiberal Sep 2012 #34
longship Sep 2012 #35
NRaleighLiberal Sep 2012 #38
longship Sep 2012 #40
xtraxritical Sep 2012 #36
NRaleighLiberal Sep 2012 #37
xtraxritical Sep 2012 #45
tallahasseedem Sep 2012 #46
NRaleighLiberal Sep 2012 #47
november3rd Sep 2012 #42
tallahasseedem Sep 2012 #48
HopeHoops Sep 2012 #50
BootinUp Sep 2012 #52
graham4anything Sep 2012 #54
angrychair Sep 2012 #55

Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 08:36 PM

1. WOW !!

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 08:43 PM

2. We's got us sum wuck t'do here in Nuth Caolina

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 08:45 PM

3. I'll bet North Carolina goes up once newer polls come out n/t

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Response to Marsala (Reply #3)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 08:47 PM

4. Yup, NC goes blue Monday.

I think PPP will publish a NC poll Sunday night.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 08:48 PM

5. Like president Obama said " It says more about you than me "

Most of the country realizes what's important and what's nonsense .

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 08:50 PM

6. That's nuts... that would be a huge landslide for Obama.

I hope the majority of Obama supporters do not see that... we need all the help we can get right through election day!

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Response to budkin (Reply #6)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 04:04 PM

51. Mitt Romney is going to wish he could do as well as Mondale

I mean Mondale carried Minnesota AND DC... Romney might have to scratch and bite for just Utah.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 09:00 PM

7. Why are you surprised? Obama 347 Romney 191

 

Has been my prediction since 8th May.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/electoral-college-maps-romney-cannot.html

It only needs an analysis of each candidates relative merits, current polling and what has yet to be aired (in any meaningful sense) to come up with that conclusion.

There is now a small chance of Obama now taking Arizona and/or Missouri as well after Romney's Stalinist antics in Tampa, exacerbating the poor state of Romney's ground game in those states.

Nate only includes analysis on the available polls.
He does not analyse wider factors.

Picking Ryan as VP was a definite nett negative for Romney.
It polarises the base for both parties.
That is an advantage for Democrats as it is harder for them to get out the base vote (and there are more registered Democrats than there are registered Republicans).
Nate has just picked up on this in the last couple of days.

Picking Ryan was effectively Romney's suicide to GOP, but they didn't listen
Deaf, dumb and blind GOP.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/paul-ryans-effect-on-election-chances.html

Nate's latest has Obama at 79.8% Romney 20.2%.
He is moving in the right direction.
More realistic odds now would be Obama 90% Romney 10%.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/07/sept-7-polls-find-hints-of-obama-convention-bounce/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
(Look at the panel on the right - scroll down 1 or 2 pages.)

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Response to Ian62 (Reply #7)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 09:20 PM

13. Possibly wildly optimistic.

However, TPM's electoral map has had Mitt stuck at 191 EV almost since they started reporting it this year. Obama goes up and down, but nobody has Obama at that level. The highest I've seen is 332 EV.

But, gees Louise, I hope you are correct. To use Cenk Uygur's parlance, "That would be awesome."

Keep it up, but pay increasing attention to polling as it will become increasingly relevant.

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Response to longship (Reply #13)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 09:29 PM

15. You didn't have time to read the info on the blogs

 

I put up.

Romney hasn't been vetted.
Obama has.
Obama is about to vet Romney over the next 2 months.

There are all sorts of things that have not been aired so far to Independent voters (all sorts of things that haven't been aired to GOP voters for that matter.)

Obama will also crucify Romney in the debates starting on 3rd October.
Obama is much smarter and a much better debater than Romney.
Romney has only empty rhetoric and is easily flustered.

Election analysis of what is GOING to happen.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/paul-ryans-effect-on-election-chances.html

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Response to Ian62 (Reply #15)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 12:53 PM

49. On MTP today, Romney came out and said he would appoint SC justices who

 

would overturn Roe v. Wade.

Obama's campaign should now use this to crucify Republicans and turn them into a rump party for at least a generation.

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Response to longship (Reply #13)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 09:36 PM

19. All the polls are (very) slowly moving in Obama's direction all the time

 

If you take account of the normal/average temporary distortions caused by naming a VP and holding conventions.
And you take account of the innate bias of some pollsters - like Nate Silver does.
E.G. Rasmussen are Republican shills. They over poll registered GOP and are always 3 to 5 pts higher for GOP than the true numbers.
(They adjust down in the last week or two to make out they were accurate all along and find some excuse as to why their numbers are "suddenly" changing.)

This is to be expected.
Obama has much more to attack Romney with, than Romney has to attack Obama with.

Unforeseen events like Akin have helped Obama.
But it is also to be expected that more of the unforeseen events favor Obama rather than Romney.i

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 09:01 PM

8. What % of the white vote do Obama & Romney each have?

Some Republican analysts are saying that Romney can win if he gets 60% of the white vote.

What are the current estimates?

That seems to be the only way Romney can still win.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 09:04 PM

9. Yes!!! Illinois is 100 percent!!11

Not that I'm surprised.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 09:11 PM

10. I would suggest a voter suppression education campaign in

PA, WI, FL and OH. And if IN starts to move our way, IN.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 09:12 PM

11. Somebody please tabulate the IL thru FL electoral votes here.

I have no bandwidth on a mere iPhone (2-3 bars EDGE net -- like dialup only worse).

How many EV do just these states give President Obama in January, assuming he wins no other?

Many Thanks.

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Response to longship (Reply #11)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 09:16 PM

12. Electoral-Vote.com

Has it 332 to 206.

Showing all those states for Obama and NC barely for rMoney.

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Response to abumbyanyothername (Reply #12)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 09:31 PM

16. That is precisely NOT what I asked for.

I know about electoral-vote's delusional projections. (They throw out Ras because of putative Rep bias but do not throw out polls which may have Dem bias. Not allowed! You take the whole data set. And publish the distribution to indicate bias in your data. Never throw out data because of bias. It's all biased.)

I asked specifically, and I thought I phrased it clearly, for the EVs for those specific states in the OP's list, through FL.

And, yes, I look at TPM's, Princeton's, and even the Obama-skewed electoral-vote EV maps every day. The best may be the first two. IMHO, the third is a unicorn which farts rainbows.

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Response to longship (Reply #16)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 09:35 PM

18. I gave you what you asked for

unless I am not understanding your question.

EV's site has all the same states for O as Silver's site. At this point.

But whatever. If you don't like this post, I'll be too busy to reply.

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Response to abumbyanyothername (Reply #18)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 09:47 PM

21. I apologize.

But I really thought that I was clear that I am decidedly bandwidth challenged.

I did not ask for electoral-votes.com's evaluation. I did not ask for anybody's personal evaluation.

I specifically asked for the EV's of the states in the original poster's post.

How in the flaming fuck am I to know that the electoral-vote.com has the same count? (if it even does)

I go to the EV sites every afternoon, not before, and not after.

Sheesh! Sometimes when one asks for assistance on DU, one gets a fucking argument.

Read my post again and please answer the question in the context that it was phrased.

Not, Well, smegma-vote.com has this projection.

I am bandwidth limited here.

Thank you very little.

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Response to longship (Reply #21)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 10:07 PM

24. just returned to this and edited my OP with more info - should be helpful for you!

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Response to longship (Reply #21)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 11:59 AM

44. Wow

Who pissed in your cheerios?

Frankly with your attitude, I'm not surprised you often think that people are arguing with you.

You should really delete this post and apologize.

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Response to longship (Reply #21)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 04:24 PM

53. Man, you have issues beyond shitty bandwidth.

I can't believe you posted so angrily when your demands were not immediately met.

WTF?

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Response to longship (Reply #11)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 09:21 PM

14. NC is 15 electoral college votes

 

If Romney were to take NC (which he won't) the result would be, Obama 332 Romney 206.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/electoral-college-maps-romney-cannot.html

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 09:34 PM

17. It's a little hard for me to believe with the citizen's united media blitz and the press

that the numbers will be this good in 2 months.

I hope they will.

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Response to mucifer (Reply #17)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 09:45 PM

20. I'm thinking that too

but what else do they have? They've tried lying, misleading, defaming, and they have many more skeletons to hide than BO. Romney is a weak candidate, not likable, evasive, and he picked a kid for VP who thinks he has to make things up to impress people. To me, the president gets the benefit of any doubt about Romney, and there's plenty to doubt. From the zero foreign policy experience and London Olympics debacle to the evasiveness about any details of anything, especially his taxes, to the tendency to stick his foot in his mouth, to his numerous reversals, he's a disaster. Hopefully the rich donors will realize it soon and give up, because he's a bad investment.

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Response to mucifer (Reply #17)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 09:48 PM

22. +1. We gotta hope for the best but plan for the worst. nt

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Response to mucifer (Reply #17)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 09:59 PM

23. I actually think they may be better - let the DNC bounce settle in, then the debates.

I do think we can turn NC blue. I do think that as time goes, on, RMoney and Ayn, despite the beaucoup dollars and attack ads, are just a horrible sell.

I also think the economics will continue to improve - and most will think it foolhardy to change at this time....

but who knows! We shall see in good time.

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Response to mucifer (Reply #17)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 10:22 PM

27. The problem for the PACs and Mitt are that Obama and Mitt are known.

The PACs are more effective at tearing down a relatively unknown. Obama is very well known, now. He has been the president for almost 4 years. Mitt is known too, which is bad for him, because he has carry and builds his unfavorables. He just isn't likable and there is nothing the PACs can do to change that.

The citizen united media buys can have some effect, but this election will show that their influence is not as dominant as feared.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 10:11 PM

25. Kicking because I did a bit of data addition to the OP and some number crunching

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 10:20 PM

26. The Krotch Bros have not yet unleashed the dogs of war.

rMoney's team is looking at the same bleak numbers. If "Game Change" was at all reality, the discussions right now are about how to go dirty, how dirty to go, and when and where to start.

I expect the debates to be a total disaster for rMoney.

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Response to Warren Stupidity (Reply #26)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 10:23 PM

28. They can only go so dirty. There isn't much of an audience left to be influenced by

their negativity.

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Response to Warren Stupidity (Reply #26)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 10:27 PM

29. they've been as dirty as can be in NC, to no real advantage at this point!

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Response to Warren Stupidity (Reply #26)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 10:47 PM

32. I do too...

He will be operating from a point of weakness, and I am sure he will come unglued. I mean really, how dare Obama show up the precious Mittster prep-school entitled elitist?

People think George Bush Sr. was dumb, but I actually think Mitt is dumber. Bush was a good ol' boy who was just naturally informal and awkward.

Mitt tries to act as if he's the smartest person in the universe, but really he's said and done things that are far worse than Junior. The problem is--everyone can see the disparity between what he projects and what he really is--a dunderhead.

If it weren't for his father, Mitt Romney would be selling shirts at Barney's.

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Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #32)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 12:02 AM

39. 'People think George Bush Sr. was dumb'

That has always been an act.

That man is very dangerous and very devious.

Many people seem to forget that he was once CIA Director, and that there's evidence he was involved with the CIA from way back.

Even has peripheral connections to some of the people involved in the JFK assassination.

Read Russ Baker's "Family of Secrets". There's a lot about the Bush Family that the average American doesn't know.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #39)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 12:20 AM

41. Oops! I meant Jr!

Sr is diabolical for sure. I meant bush Jr.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 10:41 PM

30. This is not a horse race. This is going to be an Obama landslide. The only question is

whether he can bring congress in with his coattails.

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Response to craigmatic (Reply #30)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 04:24 AM

43. Exactly!

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 10:43 PM

31. And can you image if the media were journalist

and reported facts (I know Pres O is far from perfect) how O could probably be at least be at 55% and over huh.

Even with all the negative coverage and all the fucking lies, distortions, misinformation by the GOPpers he still leads. I have yet seen reporting by CNN on the suppression and purging except for a blimp - move along nothing to see here, but CNN thought "GOD" and "Jerusalem" were more important.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 10:53 PM

33. A "realistic path?"

It's called "electronic voting."

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Response to Atman (Reply #33)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 11:05 PM

34. maybe a "legal" path?

I know...the EV thing bothers me too - that's why we need to work to make it impossible to fiddle with this election!

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 11:52 PM

35. Happy to R&K

In spite of the fact that I am skeptical of these projections. Nate Silver has a good record. But it's not sufficient for me.

I am encouraged that he tries to build an accurate model. I like his projections -- which Democrat wouldn't -- but I can't help but believe that this may be a case of confirmation bias.

The same thing that is happening with electoral-vote.com which is excluding data (Rasmussen polls) merely because they do not agree with a perceived bias, true or not. That's why e-v.com has the most wildly optimistic projections of all the EV maps.

I prefer TPM's map, or Princeton's. Neither of which rejects data because they don't agree with it. In science, you cannot do that, in spite of any apparent bias.

I know. Statistics suck.

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Response to longship (Reply #35)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 12:01 AM

38. Good points all. being an optimist tonight, I guess!

You know, HOPE!

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Reply #38)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 12:17 AM

40. Thank you very much for your update!!!!

It puts things in context. Anybody can draw the line wherever they want and make their own possible total.

Nate's ordering is very likely to be more accurate than his absolute percentages. Presuming that, candidate Rmoney has very few paths to 270 electoral votes. You can draw the line where you want and find out exactly where and how much one should support.

In the scheme of things, all this is important information, and very valuable to DUers who care about the the sausage making.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 11:55 PM

36. If you're too lazy to write out in words EV at the first usage I'm not going to read your post.

 

It's called ENGLISH.

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Response to xtraxritical (Reply #36)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 12:00 AM

37. LOL (I think?!)

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Reply #37)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 12:02 PM

45. No - I mean it, and you would not anwer either? What a bunch of ...

 

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Response to xtraxritical (Reply #45)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 12:32 PM

46. anwer?

Is that ENGLISH?

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Response to xtraxritical (Reply #45)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 12:33 PM

47. wow. electoral votes.

what a grump.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 12:29 AM

42. Good Diary! Thanks.

To have a chance to win, Rawmoney has to win all of Colorado, Ohio, Virginia and Florida, all states Obama won in 2008. Obama has consistently polled strongly in them all year, with Florida really the only one that is currently in doubt.

That being said, the only thing that matters is who actually casts votes on election day.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 12:34 PM

48. Thank you for the information!

It is getting exciting...yet nerve racking!

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 03:53 PM

50. Despite Corbett's and Turzai's best efforts, the voter ID bullshit isn't going to swing PA.

 

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 04:12 PM

52. We are not giving Ohio to Mittens!

forgetaboutit Mitt.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 05:02 PM

54. this race is so far over, Mitt would be stupid not to know

 

as I have been saying the fat lady sung a long time ago for Mitt
Good riddance to rubbish

it indeed is 1964 all over again.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 05:09 PM

55. Love this OP

makes me smile inside and out.
It is funny to read sites like Yahoo or Politco because you would like President Obama didn't have a single way forward to make any gains on Rmoney. I even thought I read somewhere (politico maybe??) that he was even in danger of losing IL and several other states. the teabillies are losing their minds right now.

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