Poll: Obama +3 in MICHIGAN according to EPIC-MRA

[TroyD]

Nate Silver wrote an article earlier this week saying that the Michigan contest should actually go solidly Obama, despite what polls like this show.

------

August 30, 2012

EPIC-MRA [Obama +3]

Obama - 49

Romney - 46

Romney shown closing the gap on Obama in latest Michigan poll

TAMPA – A new Michigan poll shows Mitt Romney apparently closing the gap on President Barack Obama in the state.

Lansing-based EPIC-MRA did an automated survey of 1,200 likely voters on Tuesday and found Obama leading Romney 49%-46% when respondents were asked who they’d vote for if they had to make a decision right then. Five percent were undecided.

The poll – which has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points – was taken before 10 p.m. on Tuesday, meaning respondents had not heard Romney’s wife, Ann, finish her speech at the Republican National Convention in Tampa or hear running mate Paul Ryan’s speech on Wednesday.

Romney will speak tonight and could – if past results are any indication – expect a bit of a bounce in his poll results following the convention. In its last poll, done for the Free Press and other media outlets in July, EPIC-MRA showed Obama leading Romney in the state 48%-42%.

“It gives us an idea where things are before Romney makes his speech. We were at six points, now it’s three. It’s tightening up,” said EPIC-MRA pollster Bernie Porn. “It could be even after Romney’s speech tonight.”

The Free Press did not commission Thursday’s poll but it was provided to the Free Press and WXYZ-TV (Channel 7).

The poll showed the key bloc of independent voters swinging toward Romney by a wide margin, 51%-38% with 11% undecided. Romney held a 48%-47% lead among men while women voters preferred Obama by a 51%-44% margin.

http://www.freep.com/article/20120830/NEWS15/120830063/Romney-shown-closing-gap-Obama-latest-Michigan-poll

[woolldog]

1. A little disturbing it's this close in MI.

Obama was +6 in the last poll by these guys.

Can't afford to lose that state.

[Siwsan]

2. I seriously doubt it is that close

But where's the drama if they don't report it, that way.

[TroyD]

3. Republican leaning pollster?

I think this pollster has a history of pro-Romney polling though.

[woolldog]

4. well like I said

their last poll a month ago had Obama +6, so unless you're arguing their bias consists in making up numbers entirely, there's been some movement to Romney, or at least a firming up of his support.

Any unintentional bias would be baked into the numbers a month ago as well as this month.

[TroyD]

5. Yes, they've shown a couple of Obama leads lately, but . . .

If you scroll down the full list of Michigan polls for the last year, you'll notice something.

See those red polls for Romney in the list? Most of them are by this pollster, EPIC-MRA. They often showed leads for Romney earlier in the year when most other pollsters showed leads for Obama.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html

[woolldog]

6. Oh I agree

they're not the gold standard of pollsters.

But it's still reflecting some movement for Romney.

[taught_me_patience]

7. Convention bump

that will likely fade over the coming month.