2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumCould this be an election the magnitude of Johnson Goldwater....
The only thing that would keep it from becoming that much of a drubbing is that there are still a whole lot of racists left in this country...
still_one
(92,190 posts)CaliforniaPeggy
(149,616 posts)Although I think our message is so much stronger that all the money they're spending will do them little good.
I hope we will have a historic landslide!
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)Money is a much, much bigger problem with seated politicians than it is with elections.
Money in elections is used for advertising, basically. And there's one constant about advertising; diminishing returns. Essentially, after a certain point, each dollar you invest in advertising returns less and less of its value in customers.
Now in politics... you will never be able to sway the loyalists with campaigning or advertising. People who are loyal to a party or a political philosophy will not be running to "the other guy" on the basis of your ad campaign, no matter how much money you spend on it. It's just not going to happen, just like you're never going to get a vegan to buy your burgers.
That leaves the "independent / undecided" voters. and in truth, most of them have already decided by the time you roll your ad around. That means your main audience will be the uninformed undecided, the ones who can be swayed back and forth by which commercials they encounter.
You really don't need to spend much money to swing these people around. The bulk of advertising money in politics is directed at the other "undecided" voters to try to woo them from their position. And the more of them come to your side, the more money you're wasting by trying to convince them more. Eventually you'll hit your maximum - and since there are only so many voters, there is a maximum - and every dollar you spend on campaigning after that gives you zero value in return. What's left is mostly spent towards "energizing the base" - that's us (and them) and we (and they) cheer when "our guy" scores a good hit with a commercial or something, but there's still no chance of the other guy winning us over.
Romney could dump his entire savings into his campaign - and I hope he does! It's just him pouring his money into a bottomless pit. Barring some amazing scoop close to the election, minds are usually settled by mid-September.
elleng
(130,904 posts)oldhippydude
(2,514 posts)don't forget the voter suppression, and the probability of "machine malfunction"..but if we were on a level playing field yes it would be a landslide
Speck Tater
(10,618 posts)They constitute a large, and almost uniformly Republican bloc of voters in this country.
johnsolaris
(220 posts)Hi,
Do not assume anything this early in the election. The Republicans will no doubtably get a bump in the polls when they have their convention. You also know that they will do everything they can to make sure that Ryan is not the next Palin.
All bets are still off. Get out & volunteer at your local Democratic headquarters. Spread our message & keep it out there.
flamingdem
(39,313 posts)for the ratings.
lovemydog
(11,833 posts)viewers will vote as Fox News brainwashes them. They don't know facts. They think Joe McCarthy was a hero, we found weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, democrats raise deficits, heck they even think their taxes have gone up.
I'd love to see a landslide. It's deserved. But as long as a lot of people watch Fox 'News' and repeat the bs that it spews, it won't happen.
MrSlayer
(22,143 posts)And we squandered the victory. We're going to be damn lucky to win at all this time, let alone by a landslide. This country is way too easily swayed by propaganda and intellectually lazy for our side to win big. I can see a landslide the other way at some time in the future though, for exactly the same reasons. Not this time though. Romney is too unlikable to win big. Whatever side wins this time will win in a squeaker.