Want to know instantly if the debate changes the conversation? Watch the predictive markets

[Godhumor]

Investors will be moving quickly to get in cheap before a candidate increases his or her likelihood of being the nominee. So the theory is simple, watch what the predictive market investors do tonight and tomorrow to get an idea of whether the debate might change the dynamics of the race.

Predictwise is an aggregator of the major predictive markets and is updated "live" (excepting the bookie data column).

You can check in and see how candidates are changing investing behavior tonight at http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016DemNomination

But be warned that it will probably be a few days to see if any change is permanent, as investors will take some time in consolidating positions around a perceived long lasting shift in support.

[DetlefK]

1. You cannot predict the stock-market.

The stock-market is ruled by irrational creatures who make decisions based on two emotions: greed for more money and fear of losing money. Everything else on top of that is just a facade to make it look professional.

[Godhumor]

2. Not talking about the stock market

Random walk theory doesn't play here.

[DetlefK]

5. This is exactly like the stock-market.

You have a commodity (a stock, a bond, a politcian, a race-horse...) and there is a value assigned to that commodity. People invest in or divest from said commodity and the assigned value changes as a result.

Whether you are betting on the future value of a stock or which horse wins the race or which politician makes the nomination, it's basically all the same.


I wasn't talking about random-walk. I was talking about how such market-values do not reflect reality because there is a layer of self-decepting money-making between the reality and the mind that makes the decision.

[brooklynite]

3. So , all those Union pension funds should cash out, right?

Last edited Tue Oct 13, 2015, 10:58 AM - Edit history (1)

[DetlefK]

4. Well, the stock-market will go up forever and ever... unless it goes down.

[brooklynite]

6. And then it will go back up...

I invest for the long term. When the market crashed earlier this year, I did...nothing. I continue to invest in a spectrum of index funds which have shown long-term performance.

[Gothmog]

8. I miss the old Intrade market

It was a fun market to follow. I know that it was violating US law and that there were people playing games with opening and closing bids but this market was somewhat accurate on election predictions