Larry Sabato: "it’s hard right now to see Obama actually winning Florida"

[Marzupialis]

Yesterday political forecaster Larry Sabato said that "Given how close the race is nationally, it’s hard right now to see Obama actually winning Florida, which appears to have a slight Republican lean in presidential elections. Of all the states Obama won in 2008, he only did worse in North Carolina and Indiana than he did in the Sunshine State." Link

What Sabato doesn't explain is why he thinks Obama's lead in Florida will shrink from his 1.4% lead in the average of all polls. He also ignores the recent pro-Obama trend in this state. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html

[demosincebirth]

1. Well, todays Pew's National Poll has Obama with a 10 point lead nationally. With a 10 point lead

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/08/pew-obama-national-lead.php?ref=fpb


I don't think Florida would make that much difference or he has some bum polling numbers.

[toddwv]

2. Pew is the outlier right now.

And prone to large fluctuations.

It's more important to watch trends as opposed to single data points.

As America gets to know Romney better, they will like him less. Trust me on this.

[demosincebirth]

21. Bloomgerg/reuters poll last month had Obama by 11. Who's right?

[Drunken Irishman]

3. Larry Sabato proves why these political analysts are becoming irrelevant.

They get too caught up in their own data and ignore the outside world. Every one of 'em. They all look at elections through a prism that, in their view, should never change. You can't do that. Every election is different than the past and what one state does one year doesn't mean squat four years later.

There are just so many variables that to make a statement like that, when the polls suggest otherwise, just sets yourself up for failure.

He might be right. In November, Obama might lose Florida. But he isn't losing it right now and there is a good chance he does win it in November. Yes, it would defy some political odds, but this campaign more than any other shows just how much Obama is defying the political odds.

[unblock]

4. i've found that sabato leans right, beyond what his own data show.

whereas rasmussen somehow gets actual data that show things are better for republicans than every other pollster, sabato as an analyst looks at data and often seems to come up with a conclusion slightly to the right of any other analyst.

while intellectually wrong, perhaps his bias roughly equals the vote-rigging edge republicans gain in the counting of actual votes....

[progressivebydesign]

14. Agree. I find that it's the interpretation that has a slant. Like doing a tarot reading.

the cards may say something, and like the numbers in the polls, they're sitting right there. What you do with the info you have, and how you explain it to people, is where your own bias comes in. I notice that with a lot of these guys.

He could have easily said, well.. looking at the numbers, he's ahead in Florida and overall with likability and trust polling, I'd say that Romney would have a hard time winning Florida.

[WI_DEM]

5. Sabato--one of Faux New's favorite commentators

Obama can win FL, but of course the GOP with their voter law requirements are doing their best to try and steal it by limiting voting. The GOP can't win an election honestly. They need to pull these types of stunts to win--same as they are trying to do in PA. Of course, Obama doesn't need FL to win. He can win with his base states and Ohio and one other little state. Romney practically has to run the field.

[DCBob]

7. I like Larry and he is usually a straightshooter..

but its starting to sounds like he's becoming a bit "foxified".

[flpoljunkie]

6. I think Sabato's failing to account for how bad a nominee Romney is.

Just sayin'...

[Proud Liberal Dem]

8. Concern troll (Sabato)?

Thanks for your concern, Larry. Just wait until President Obama starts talking about the Ryan Budget and what that's going to do for upcoming Medicare recipients.

[Arkana]

9. He has more of a shot at Florida than he does in NC or IN right now.

Sabato's just ignoring almost every poll out there right now in favor of a narrative. Disappointing.

[CabCurious]

10. Florida is weird. Let's just agree on that.

It's so hard to predict where things in FL will go in November.

A lot will depend on how well Romney can handle the latino vote (which can't get much worse).

It will mostly come down to voter turn-out there.

[yellowcanine]

11. With the consistency of the trend it is hard right now to see Obama losing FL.

Of course things can change. But up to RIGHT NOW Obama has been holding a narrow lead in FL for a while in most polls and the trend seems to be in Obama's favor. Further, national polls tend to follow state polls, not the other way around. Shifts in support usually show up in state polls first. Given that Obama seems to be gradually increasing his hold on most traditionally blue states and battleground states from 2008, I predict that within a few weeks the national polls will begin to reflect a larger Obama lead as well - absent some game changing event against that trend. And the closer we get to November, the less chance of some kind of game changing event. Yes the Republican convention could be a stunning success for Romney, the Democratic convention could be a stunning failure for Obama, the economy could suddenly tank if the European economic crisis blows up, or Obama COULD get crushed by Romney in the debates - what are the real chances of any of these happening? Not much, imo. OTOH bad news for Romney on his personal financial dealings as well as gaffes in debates or otherwise which play into the public's propensity to dislike Romney are likely.

[grantcart]

12. "It's hard right now to see how desperate Larry Sabato is to find some good news"

Only because I can't see him.

Another RW hack that is quickly losing his academic reputation.

Nate Silver gives Obama a 54% chance of winning Florida.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/02/aug-2-when-a-poll-that-seems-like-news-isnt/

[grantcart]

13. Nate Silver "Obama has a 54% chance of winning Florida"

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/02/aug-2-when-a-poll-that-seems-like-news-isnt/

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

15. However, I do trust Sabato. He leans more center-left than most of these guys.

I would listen to what he has to say because he's seldom been wrong in the past.

On the other hand, I trust Nate Silver's analysis more because he really has the numbers to back up his claims. He doesn't just make these claims without explaining why as Larry just did.

[onenote]

17. I knew Sabato a bit back in college

he was a strong progressive and a vocal opponent of the Vietnam War at a school where neither of those points of view reflected the predominant sentiment.

He calls them as he sees them. Sometimes he gets it right, sometimes not. Sometimes his analysis upsets repubs and sometimes it upsets Democrats.

I don't think he's a "hack."

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

20. I know Larry, too. He wrote an American Government 101 textbook with one of other professors

Karen O'Connor. I know he knows what he's talking about. It's just weird that he left us hanging with this analysis.

[K8-EEE]

16. IMO OObama currently leading in reality, but factoring in voter suppression

GOP aims to steal at least 3% of the vote through suppression tactics so Obama has to poll 4% ahead in FL to have a chance.

[Ira]

18. Sabato giving Romney benefit of the doubt

Sabato's published Electoral Vote opinion map shows:
Obama 237
Romney 206
Tossups 95.
He has not updated his online opinion since April 6.

The average of 22 online electoral college opinion maps is currently:
Obama 248
Romney 197
Tossups 93.

http://peanutgallerypolitical.blogspot.com/

[Ira]

19. Sabato assigns 247 electoral votes to Obama

Sorry. Previous posting used wrong link for recent Sabato map.
Here is the right link:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2012-president/

As of August 1, Obama 247.

[DFW]

22. He should word it differently

I see Obama winning Florida like I saw Gore winning Florida.

I can also see Obama's win in Florida being stolen from him by Republican corruption, led by Scalia and Rick Scott telling the country afterward to get over it, sort of in the same tone as a rigid anti-abortionist talking to a pregnant rape victim.

Take away voter suppression and Republican Stalinist-style vote "counting," and I can easily see Obama winning Florida.

(I know Republicans hate being told they resemble notorious Communists, but if the shoe fits........)