Pew Research Poll: Obama 51 - Romney 41

[Tony_FLADEM]

Romney's Personal Image Remains Negative
Obama Leads Nationwide, But Closer Race in Swing States

By a 52% to 37% margin, more voters say they have an unfavorable than favorable view of Mitt Romney. The poll, conducted prior to Romney’s recent overseas trip, represents the sixth consecutive survey over the past nine months in which his image has been in negative territory. While Romney’s personal favorability improved substantially between March and June – as Republican voters rallied behind him after the primary season ended– his image has again slipped over the past month.


http://www.people-press.org/2012/08/02/romneys-personal-image-remains-negative/

If this keeps up perhaps this will influence the Congressional Races. If Obama beats Romney by more than 5%, I could see the Democrats retaking the House of Representatives.

[Downtown Hound]

1. Pew was actually the most accurate poll in 2008

contrary to the common Republican assertion that it was Rasmussen. Rasmussen was close in 2008, but they were way off in 2010, with many of their polls being 10 or more points off and one of them even being 40 points off.

Rasmussen=garbage Republican biased poll.

Pew=quality poll.

Translation=Obama kicking ass!

[freshwest]

8. Thanks for that encouragement there.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

11. link?

[Downtown Hound]

35. ...

http://dullardmush.blogspot.com/2008/11/rasmussen-and-pew-most-accurate-2008.html
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

[Marzupialis]

15. So how was Pew more accurate than Rasmussen in 2008?

Rasmussen sucked in the 2010 Congressional elections. But what happened in 2008?

[DCBob]

17. Rasmussen is a joke.

Last edited Sat Aug 4, 2012, 09:39 AM - Edit history (1)

Their manipulation of survey data to benefit the Republican candidate has been obvious and blatant for years.

Dont just look at the ratings.. Rasmussen knows how to manipulate those numbers too.

[Downtown Hound]

36. Both Pew and Rasmussen were close

But Pew was closer in the state by state analysis. Rasmussen had the national numbers close.

[Marzupialis]

39. Huh? did Pew even poll any states in 2008?

And why does the poll ranking by Pollster.com have Pew and Rasmussen tied in accuracy in 2008?

http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf

[Downtown Hound]

40. Yes, and it's because they were both close on the nationals.

Don't remember where I read it though.

[Marzupialis]

42. Maybe you don't remember because you never read it

If you can't find which states Pew polled via Google then they probably didn't poll any states at all. And please state the last Pew prediction was, compared to the last Rasmussen poll.

[Downtown Hound]

47. Go look it up your damn self if it's that important to you

Believe it or don't, I don't care. Have a nice day.

[Fozzledick]

2. As I've said before, no candidate can win with their favorability that far underwater.

[speedoo]

3. Clearly, Obama's strategy to drive MittWitt's unfavorables up is working.

That's the best news here. How does MittWitt reverse this? I don't see how he can.

[Broderick]

4. Are Independent and Democrat Registrations going up?

In this poll:

459 Republicans
813 Democrats
599 Independent


This seems to tell me that people are running away from claiming to be Republicans.

And a ten point lead should be higher with this sampling shouldn't it?

[humbled_opinion]

5. People are finally seeing the real

Romney and they don't like it, he epitomizes the 1 percent. I think Obama's campaign has been masterful at defining Romney for America. I think this will help in down ballot races and I too think Democrats could regain the House, we must level the playing field and Obama is the middle class big stick but he needs a Congress that will work with him to pass tax increases on the rich shore up healthcare reform and bring jobs back to America. These are all common sense issues and Romney has zero common sense. I shudder to think what the country will look like if Romney gets elected and I think that shudder creeps in to most common sense thinking Americans....

[cheezmaka]

12. It would be a nightmare for most people

It's "too horrible" for me to even think about it...

[Left Coast2020]

37. And what about the Senate?

I heard someone speculate on MSNBC earlyier that Mr. O could get (at least) 2 SC nominations in a second term. I wonder about the accuracy of that. The Senate is wayyyyyyyyy more important than the House.

[humbled_opinion]

38. I don't beleive

We were ever in danger of losing the Senate....so I don't even think it's in play.

[WCGreen]

6. I think if this lingers into the fall....

The money will be diverted to....

Oh who are we kidding. They have money to piss away...

[freshwest]

9. Hope nothing happens between now and November, manufactured by the GOP dirty tricks machine.

They are famous for the October suprise. With all this hoopla over the chicken place, Glennbeckistan is getting bigger.

[cheezmaka]

13. I hope not either

their gonna need some really GOOD schemes this time to combat their current "negative" stance...

[freshwest]

14. Keep Looking Up! Thanks!

[AverageJoe90]

33. They'll probably try something at some point, but........

I doubt they'd be able to pull anything off at this point. The only hope they have is thru the other kind of trick; i.e. election fraud and modern-poll-tax voter ID laws. Carter was pretty damn unpopular back in '80 and Reagan might've still had a real good shot at winning without the original October Surprise op.......

[Tarheel_Dem]

7. I remain cautiously optimistic. However, I also remain nervous about the amount of $$$ yet to be...

unleashed. But this, and the recent swing state numbers, have to worry the Rmoney campaign.

[Stooge]

10. senate

I want to see them go for the senate

[nxylas]

16. This poll is very much an outlier

Most polls have Obama around 3 points ahead. Best not to fall into the trap of cheering a single poll just because you like the results. I generally find Real Clear Politics's poll averages more reliable than any one poll. I'll want to see a few more polls like this one before I break out the champagne.

[wiggs]

18. It's not a 'likely voter' poll, not even a registered voter poll....they polled

adults in general. I believe most other election polls are polling likely voters.

[Marzupialis]

19. That's false. The poll is among 1956 Registered Voters

This can be confirmed in these two sources:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/02/us-2012-president-51-obam_n_1734746.html

[pnwmom]

21. They reported the results in a confusing fashion, because they said

they had polled 2500+ adults, out of which 1956 were registered voters. But it wasn't clear to me which group they were basing their reported results on -- their text said one thing and their graph said another.

Also, they had an unusually high percentage of Dems in their sample. Higher than Dem turnout in 2008.

[SlimJimmy]

24. Two problems. They polled adults and registered voters (not likely voters) and

then they oversampled Dems by about 19%. I've been saying this for a few months now, and I'll repeat it here. Stop it pollsters. You aren't doing the President any favors when you use adults, registered voters, and add 10-20% more Dems than Repubs. The results give us a false sense of security. When using accurate models and likely voters, the race is razor close- well within the MOE.

Using accurate data (likely voters, the correct split between D's and R's):

The only battleground race where the president has a lead outside of the MOE is Pennsylvania.

[Broderick]

25. how do you figure 19%???

459 Republicans
813 Democrats
599 Independent


Just wondering?

The campaigns have much more reliable data. They don't poll for headlines to keep it interesting. Our President has pretty much pulled out of PA. He has always been ahead there in the RCP average by a good margin. Pulling out of advertising there was a sign of good things. I do agree that we get a false sense of security by fake polls the media creates to influence. Complacency is not an option. Motivation is our best option.

[SlimJimmy]

26. You're correct. I got a bit quick on the calculator. It's a 2 to 1 margin in this particular poll.

[qwlauren35]

41. Why do you say he's pulled out of PA?

We have busloads from Baltimore going into PA every weekend, and we're pounding the pavement for more. I haven't given up on PA.

[Broderick]

44. I read that he pulled advertising out of there to focus on more competitive states

Meaning that he is well ahead in internal polling. The ground game doesn't change. I can't recall now a week later where I read that. I took it as a wonderful sign.

[Marzupialis]

43. Dude, the Romney vs. Obama question was among RV, not just adults

All polls poll adults. Do you want them to poll children? For the question we're discussing (Who will you vote for) only Registered voters were polled. Not adults in the sense that unregistered voters could have been polled. You are implying that non-registered voters were asked which candidate they want to vote for.

And what do you think the correct D vs. R split is? How did you determine it?

[SlimJimmy]

45. Learn to read what I wrote, then get back to me ... dude.

They polled adults and registered voters (not likely voters) and then they oversampled Dems

[pnwmom]

20. I read somewhere that this poll sample included significantly more Democrats

than would be expected -- so that might be why these numbers are so different from others.

[Broderick]

23. 2 to 1

In this poll:

459 Republicans
813 Democrats
599 Independent


The more I scratch the numbers through my brain; I believe his lead should be more. Either that or Republicans are lying about registration or they are drifting away from wanting to be Republicans. The independent number is really high too. I want to believe that is the case but if you extrapolate the numbers for normal turnout in an election, this doesn't honestly bode well with this breakdown. I would like to believe there are twice as man democrats in this country. Not that polls mean shit this early on.

[aquart]

28. There are real good reasons the GOP is desperate to stop us from voting.

There are more of us. If we vote, we win.

[Broderick]

29. I saw some stats a few weeks ago, but I can't find it now. Sigh. From memory.

77 million Registered Democrats
61 million Registered Republicans

Turnout from Republicans is quite higher, but in 2008 it was close.

Many registered Democrats in the South are Reagan Republicans that are registered Democrat but haven't changed their affiliation.

I think we need to model turnout percentages from averaging 2008 and 2010. I think that gives a fair assessment.

Motivation not to kick ourselves in the foot and motivation to get the young people voting again.

[SlimJimmy]

46. +1

[Ira]

22. Nate Silver's adjustments of Pew poll show 4 point national lead for Obama

Nate Silver’s Pew poll analysis shows national race is unchanged
“From the forecast model’s standpoint, therefore, the Pew poll is treated as a four-point lead for Mr. Obama after making these adjustments. A four-point lead for Mr. Obama is a decent enough number for him, but nothing that should drastically change our understanding of the race.”
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/02/aug-2-when-a-poll-that-seems-like-news-isnt/#more-32767

[aquart]

27. C'mon, Mitt. Open your mouth. Say something.

Widen that gap!

[Broderick]

30. He's a platitude

wrapped in an enigma.

[cheezmaka]

31. He can't...

He knows he'll widen that gap by putting his FOOT in his MOUTH!!!

[Stargleamer]

32. Please take this with a grain of salt - Dems were oversampled

see this link: [link:http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Aug03.html#item-1|

[shaayecanaan]

34. Thanks for the link...

I thought it sounded unlikely, given that most polls have it much closer than that.

The cell phone issue is an interesting one - I accept that a sample of cell phone users will skew young, and therefore skew Democratic. On the other hand, a lot of young people dont bother with land lines much anymore. I suppose there must be an ideal ratio of land line to cell phone calls that avoids skewing the results one way or the other.