Wed Jun 27, 2012, 06:31 PM

'I believe the mandate will not be invalidated tomorrow' - so says SCOTUSblog.

Last edited Wed Jun 27, 2012, 06:32 PM USA/ET - Edit history (2)

Pretty strong claim from a reputable source.

In the end, you have to make a prediction and take responsibility for it. I believe the mandate will not be invalidated tomorrow. Far less important, I expect the principal opinion will be written by the Chief Justice; a majority of the Court will find it has jurisdiction; and the challenge to the Medicaid expansion will be rejected.

But in the end, based on the entire mix of information I have, I think the mandate will not be struck down tomorrow. (I don’t have any inside information, nor does anyone else.) My prediction includes the possibility that there will not be a single majority opinion for the theory on which the mandate is upheld, and even the thin possibility that the Court will not have a majority to find the mandate constitutional.

My level of confidence isn’t overwhelming, but it’s good enough to give a concrete prediction. We’ll see.

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21 replies	Author	Time	Post
'I believe the mandate will not be invalidated tomorrow' - so says SCOTUSblog. (Original post)	Drunken Irishman	Jun 2012	OP
Bookmarking...	CaliforniaPeggy	Jun 2012	#1
I expect the mandate to be struck down....	Swede Atlanta	Jun 2012	#2
The USSC is bought and paid for. Don't place any bets on anything.	HopeHoops	Jun 2012	#3
Conventional wisdom suggests you're right...	Drunken Irishman	Jun 2012	#4
The Court is very friendly to big business, and the big healthcare	SDjack	Jun 2012	#5
It's amazing that there are no leaks...I wonder if Intrade falls under the "insider trading" laws	Laura PourMeADrink	Jun 2012	#6
I've noticed that % has gradually declined.	Drunken Irishman	Jun 2012	#7
it's probably dropping because people see a huge windfall if it's upheld. I haven't	Laura PourMeADrink	Jun 2012	#8
This message was self-deleted by its author	Drunken Irishman	Jun 2012	#9
but of course the decision was written a little while ago, not yesterday. So while folks have had	CTyankee	Jun 2012	#18
In other words, the source doesn't know shit!	longship	Jun 2012	#10
It's his opinion...	Drunken Irishman	Jun 2012	#11
A meaningless prediction, like all the rest here tonight.	longship	Jun 2012	#12
Yes you are...	Drunken Irishman	Jun 2012	#13
did you say something bad to me you had to delete? :>)	Laura PourMeADrink	Jun 2012	#14
No. It was on Intrade, but their numbers shifted, so I deleted it.	Drunken Irishman	Jun 2012	#15
based on your post, I just tried to sell at 6.86 but it wouldn't	Laura PourMeADrink	Jun 2012	#16
I have often thought a very interesting psychological study would be what makes	Laura PourMeADrink	Jun 2012	#17
I'm going to the library at 10 today, just to be where things are nice and quiet.	CTyankee	Jun 2012	#19
THIS FELLOW WAS COMPLETLY CORRECT..HE GOT IT....EVEN	Stuart G	Jun 2012	#20
He did get it, and how wonderful!	CaliforniaPeggy	Jun 2012	#21

Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 06:32 PM

CaliforniaPeggy (104,471 posts)

1. Bookmarking...

I so hope he's right.

*fingers crossed*

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 06:35 PM

Swede Atlanta (2,339 posts)

2. I expect the mandate to be struck down....

I expect the majority of the rest of the law to be upheld HOWEVER

I think the Supremes (cowards) are going to leave it to the Appellate Court to decide if striking down the mandate makes the rest of the law untenable.

Those are my predictions. I hope I am wrong in a favorable direction but that is my prediction.

I'm not a gambling man but let's see.

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Response to Swede Atlanta (Reply #2)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 06:41 PM

HopeHoops (47,675 posts)

3. The USSC is bought and paid for. Don't place any bets on anything.

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Response to Swede Atlanta (Reply #2)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 06:41 PM

Drunken Irishman (24,588 posts)

4. Conventional wisdom suggests you're right...

But this guy knows what he's talking about. Not to say you don't. But I'm assuming you're not as knowledgeable as he is on this (and I ain't either, so, don't take that as an attack). Ultimately, I hope he's right and you're wrong.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 06:45 PM

SDjack (1,075 posts)

5. The Court is very friendly to big business, and the big healthcare

insurance companies seem to accept the mandate. Brings in lots of new money. So, I think "the fix" is in, and the Court will validate.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 06:45 PM

Laura PourMeADrink (15,276 posts)

6. It's amazing that there are no leaks...I wonder if Intrade falls under the "insider trading" laws

Overturning it is at 74% probability...(which Nate Silver says is "overconfident". It would be easy
for someone working in the court to tell someone to buy on intrade.

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Response to Laura PourMeADrink (Reply #6)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 06:48 PM

Drunken Irishman (24,588 posts)

7. I've noticed that % has gradually declined.

It was somewhere in the 80s and now it's down to 73.8%, so, it's dropping. Very marginally, of course, but who knows.

I do trust this guy's opinion. He may not be right, but I think he's as good of a source on this as anyone else they've trotted out to speculate the court will overturn the mandate.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #7)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 07:18 PM

Laura PourMeADrink (15,276 posts)

8. it's probably dropping because people see a huge windfall if it's upheld. I haven't

decided if Obama is better off having it overturned or not. Of course, totally from a
political point of view. The detrimental effect on millions will be felt if it is.

Of course, we have no PR machine on our side, but I could see if we did, and it
got overturned, you could really play it up to the max...millions to suffer, they took
away your insurance ! (18-25 year olds), pre-existing conditions..See ya.

although I did read that one insurance company was going to keep that provision
regardless of what happens tomorrow.

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Response to Laura PourMeADrink (Reply #8)

Drunken Irishman This message was self-deleted by its author.

Response to Laura PourMeADrink (Reply #8)

Thu Jun 28, 2012, 09:02 AM

CTyankee (35,255 posts)

18. but of course the decision was written a little while ago, not yesterday. So while folks have had

a chance to think of the consequences of overturning ("OMG, I'm gonna lose my health care insurance!"), that hadn't sunk in back when it was being written...

all this theorizing...I have to laugh at myself for even doing a bit of it...kinda funny, since I really have no control over what's gonna happen...

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 07:53 PM

longship (18,217 posts)

10. In other words, the source doesn't know shit!

But, tomorrow if the source is correct, it will be able to claim awesome insight based solely on confirmation bias

Damn! I am glad I bought all that microwave popcorn the other day. Better get another bag popping.

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Response to longship (Reply #10)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 08:07 PM

Drunken Irishman (24,588 posts)

11. It's his opinion...

Unless he's one of the 9 Justices voting, of course he doesn't know their overall ruling. He's making a prediction, that is all.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #11)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 08:34 PM

longship (18,217 posts)

12. A meaningless prediction, like all the rest here tonight.

Since nobody here or anywhere outside SCOTUS knows what the ruling will be.

But those who, by virtue of being correct in a universe of limited outcomes, will claim prescience. But as I wrote in my post above, it's all confirmation bias.

I am done here.

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Response to longship (Reply #12)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 08:49 PM

Drunken Irishman (24,588 posts)

13. Yes you are...

Any prediction on anything, from what the weather will be like tomorrow to what sports team will win this weekend, is meaningless. It doesn't mean, however, people shouldn't make 'em or we shouldn't have a discussion of them. This guy's making a prediction. That's all. You getting so upset over it is unusual, to say the least.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #13)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:10 PM

Laura PourMeADrink (15,276 posts)

14. did you say something bad to me you had to delete? :>)

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Response to Laura PourMeADrink (Reply #14)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:30 PM

Drunken Irishman (24,588 posts)

15. No. It was on Intrade, but their numbers shifted, so I deleted it.

Problem with posting things that are fluid. haha

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #15)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:49 PM

Laura PourMeADrink (15,276 posts)

16. based on your post, I just tried to sell at 6.86 but it wouldn't

take my debit card. No idea why, maybe my bank has some kind
of protection deal...don't let her do anything crazy...haha.

By the way, it says "if you think it won't happen" sell (shares you don't have).

This sounds so counter-intuitive..but too tired to think it through

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Response to longship (Reply #12)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:56 PM

Laura PourMeADrink (15,276 posts)

17. I have often thought a very interesting psychological study would be what makes

some people turned on by team sports, competition, guessing on the unknown and others
so completely uninterested. Like the difference between the people who wanted to
know what their Christmas present was before it was time and someone who has no interest
in knowing until the time comes.

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Response to longship (Reply #10)

Thu Jun 28, 2012, 09:03 AM

CTyankee (35,255 posts)