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[ericson00]

This message was self-deleted by its author (ericson00) on Sat Nov 14, 2015, 02:48 AM. When the original post in a discussion thread is self-deleted, the entire discussion thread is automatically locked so new replies cannot be posted.

[JaneyVee]

1. Good. Stopping Republicans = #1 priority.

[Thinkingabout]

2. For those who know Hillary are counting on her experience and knowledge to be our next president.

the polls are telling the story.

[ericson00]

3. Obama needs to keep his approvals up

because they're middling right now. If they drop below 45 on a consistent basis, its trouble. If its between 45-50, a tossup, and above 50 consistently, she wins. History follows this pattern. Thats another reason I think Obama made a mistake with this Iran deal. But then again, I'm starting to think he did it to show he'll avoid war, which is popular, but since it won't go thru Congress so easily, potential problems from the deal will be avoided but the Congress then also becomes do-nothing.

[Thinkingabout]

5. Of course this Iran Deal isn't just the USA, we must never think it is one nation. It will have to

be veto proof on the votes if Congress votes it down and Obama will veto the bill.

[karynnj]

10. The Iran deal has made very little change to Obama's numbers - looking at Gallup

Look at the series yourself. The deal was announced on 7/13. If anything his negatives slightly declined, while his positives stayed in the same range. This is just by eye balling the data, but there is clearly nothing there.

I doubt there is a big political payoff there. This is leadership and he did it to try to prevent a war that some have argued for for almost a decade.

I remember when NOT going to war was the most important thing on DU.

[AtomicKitten]

4. 7/22 RCP: Quinnipiac NOT a crap poll, NOT an outlier.

7/22: Clinton Polls Behind Bush, Rubio & Walker in 3 key states: Colorado, Iowa & Virginia.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/07/22/clinton_polls_behind_bush_rubio_walker_in_key_states_127490.html

[ericson00]

6. any NEWS?

because you're posting olds.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. 2012 VA Exit Polls were 39% D 32% R 29% I

The quinnipiac poll was 28%D 27% R and 35% I

Maybe the electorate will look fundamentally different but I doubt it especially as Democratic identification is on the rebound...

The CO and IA internals are funky too...


Again, who knows?

And I will leave you with this:



Nate Silver ?@NateSilver538 10h10 hours ago
People forget that the better data-driven sites are often the ones saying NOT to pay attention to (early, cherry-picked, noisy) polls.

[AtomicKitten]

8. from the link I posted above

Why she's losing ground:

"She has lost ground in the horserace and on the key questions about her honesty and leadership."

Clinton’s integrity has been routinely questioned by voters who have concerns about her use of a private email account and server while she served as the nation’s top diplomat from 2009 to 2013, as well as controversial donations to her family’s charitable foundation during that same time frame.

[Adrahil]

11. One poll

Their analysis is based on their data set. We'll need more data to determine if it really is accurate it an outlier, though it is very different from other polls.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Linked for TRUTHINESS

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html



And this, redux:



Nate Silver ?@NateSilver538 10h10 hours ago
People forget that the better data-driven sites are often the ones saying NOT to pay attention to (early, cherry-picked, noisy) polls.

[AtomicKitten]

14. You can't dispute the trend nor her trajectory which is down.

She has gradually lost ground, slowly but surely trending down since her book tour.

Quibble about the numbers, but her downward trend and trajectory are indisputable.

Voters are questioning her honesty and leadership. Expect that to accelerate after the debates. The more people see of her, the more they dislike her. Her favorability has plummeted (reported today: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/07/22/clintons-favorability-keeps-dropping-in-key-states-so-does-her-position-against-republican-opponents/)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. "A wish is a dream the heart makes."-Cinderella

And your theory that Senator Sanders is a debating maven and Hillary Clinton is a dolt is a theory in search of evidence. Dolts don't get a B.S. from Wellesley, a JD from Yale, and become a two term senator from the third most populous state in the Union and Secretary of State.

[AtomicKitten]

16. Reality. Look into it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. Michael Jordan says hi

[brooklynite]

19. Where is the "down"?

All the polling data is there, please give us your expert analysis?

[TheNutcracker]

9. she was beating them but it will be fluid.

[Juicy_Bellows]

12. I would hope she would be favorable against them.

They say Bud Light is more popular than Budweiser. I prefer a microbrew from Vermont made with all organic ingredients. It might not have the same national sales but it goes down easy, refreshes and actually tastes as advertised.

[oasis]

18. Makes sense to me.