2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumClinton's Popularity Declines--But Still Beats her GOP Rivals' (POLL)
Hillary Clintons personal popularity has dropped to virtually an even split in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, marking her potential vulnerability as a presidential candidate. Yet she still surpasses her possible Republican rivals in favorability and vote preference alike.
Jeb Bushs favorable-unfavorable rating is 33-53 percent; Chris Christies, 26-51 percent. Compared with Clinton, more Americans have yet to form an opinion of Bush, Christie, or, especially, the others tested in this poll: Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio and Scott Walker. Still, Cruzs favorability rating, like Bushs, is underwater by 20 points, Rubios by 14, Pauls by 13 and Walkers the least-known by 7. Christies worst off, 25 points in the hole.
PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE Head-to-head, Clinton leads Bush by 12 points among registered voters, 53-41 percent, essentially unchanged in the past year. She has 54 to 56 percent support against Rubio, Walker and Cruz alike, vs. their 39 to 40 percent.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clintons-popularity-declines-beats-gop-rivals-poll/story?id=30052071
Sunlei
(22,651 posts)define "push poll"
push poll
noun
noun: push poll; plural noun: push polls
an ostensible opinion poll in which the true objective is to sway voters using loaded or manipulative questions.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)And I ask you...
If the election was held today, who would you vote for Joe Blow the Democrat or Jane Blow the Republican how is that question loaded?
A loaded question would be "when did you stop cheating on your taxes?"
Sunlei
(22,651 posts)Jackpine Radical
(45,274 posts)would that change your opinion of her?"
Repeat 6 billion times.
Result: a conditioned link between thinking of Hillary & a visceral feeling of disgust.
Doesn't matter if it's true.
Doesn't even matter if it contains a "not." The neural networks through which Pavlovian conditioning occurs are not big on grammar, just the juxtaposition of the two ideas.
Sunlei
(22,651 posts)Jackpine Radical
(45,274 posts)to the level of rational thought or belief.
Here is the specific process I'm talking about:
Pavlovian conditioning Pav·lo·vi·an conditioning (pāv-lō'vē-ən, -lô'-)
n.
A process of behavior modification by which a subject comes to respond in a desired manner to a previously neutral stimulus that has been repeatedly presented along with an unconditioned stimulus that elicits the desired response.
The American Heritage® Stedman's Medical Dictionary
Sunlei
(22,651 posts)Jackpine Radical
(45,274 posts)Bill USA
(6,436 posts)UCmeNdc
(9,600 posts)against Mrs. Clinton. Her PR people will have to learn how to anticipate attacks.
Proud Public Servant
(2,097 posts)but down.
After 23 years in the public eye, it's wildly unlikely that she's going to get people to form a more favorable opinion of her than they already have. And after her 23 years in the public eye, everyone already has an opinion.
For GOP challengers, by contrast, there's a lot more room to improve favorables; they're both less-well-known overall and only superficially known when they are, leaving much more space to craft/invent/re-invent a public image. Hillary hasn't got that luxury.
I'd bet cash money that, by the day of the Iowa caucuses, her lead over the leading Republican (if she has a lead) will be within the polls' margins of error.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Last edited Thu Apr 2, 2015, 12:42 PM - Edit history (1)
Any politician who is in the public eye and in the thick of politics such as Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama is going to split the electorate roughly in half. We are a deeply...deeply polarized nation.
And I see the favorite for the Republican nomination, Jeb Bush, is really upside down (33%-51).
I will wager a $100.00 donation to DU she has a lead outside the margin of error against all her Republican opponents, come the Iowa caucus.
She will continue to lead those clowns, ciphers, and cretins if for no other reason they will be running against each other and tearing themselves apart while she will be essentially running against herself and taking pot shots, as she has been doing, against all of them...
Jackpine Radical
(45,274 posts)I'm making no bets on Iowa, though.
In ordinary times, we could make some reasonable guesses about what's coming. However, I don't think these are ordinary times. Game-changing shifts can occur because there is so much politico-economic-environmental instability these days. A lot of things can happen, and I could well imagine that 2016 could turn on issues that are not even on the horizon as yet.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Almost everybody has formed an opinion of Bush The More(r) and he is upside down 33-51 or sixty percent of the people who have formed an opinion of him have an unfavorable opinion of him...
If I was In Vegas I rather have Hilary's hand than Bush The More(r).
Bill USA
(6,436 posts)to (almost) everyone that they are all, to varying degrees, idiots and lunatics. Jeb Bush is about the only one who actually approximates a normal person.