HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » Politics 2014 (Forum) » Scott Brown-R is more lik...
Introducing Discussionist: A new forum by the creators of DU

Sat Dec 15, 2012, 10:08 AM

Scott Brown-R is more likely to run for Governor than Senator.

Scenario-1 for Scott Brown-R.
Runs for the US Senate in 2013 Special Election. Narrowly defeats Democratic Nominee-US Representative Ed Markey-D. In 2014-when Brown-R is running for a first full term, he faces a 2nd tier Democratic challenger-Newton Mayor Setti Warren-D. Brown-R defeats Setti Warren-R by a narrow to high single digit margin. In 2020-Scott Brown-R runs for a 2nd term. 2020 is a Presidential Election Year. The Democratic Nominee for President-whether it is Hillary,Deval,or Andrew will carry Massachusetts by at least a 20 percent margin. The Democratic Nominee for the US Senate will be US Representative Joe Kennedy-D. Brown-R will lose to Kennedy-D in 2020.
Scenario-2 for Scott Brown-R
Runs for Governor in 2014. Defeats Coakley-D again. Unlike Mitt, Brown-R seeks re-election to a 2nd term in 2018, Wins re-election in 2018 against Murray-D. In 2020 or 2024, Brown-R eyes a run for President.

18 replies, 2342 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 18 replies Author Time Post
Reply Scott Brown-R is more likely to run for Governor than Senator. (Original post)
NPolitics1979 Dec 2012 OP
flamingdem Dec 2012 #1
NYC Liberal Dec 2012 #2
Blaukraut Dec 2012 #3
Tutonic Dec 2012 #4
graywarrior Dec 2012 #5
ShadowLiberal Dec 2012 #6
NPolitics1979 Dec 2012 #7
yortsed snacilbuper Dec 2012 #8
TeamPooka Dec 2012 #9
Gargoyle22 Dec 2012 #10
NHDEMFORLIFE Dec 2012 #11
NPolitics1979 Dec 2012 #12
NHDEMFORLIFE Dec 2012 #13
NPolitics1979 Dec 2012 #14
NHDEMFORLIFE Dec 2012 #15
NPolitics1979 Dec 2012 #18
HeavyMeta Dec 2012 #16
NPolitics1979 Dec 2012 #17

Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sat Dec 15, 2012, 10:19 AM

1. Brown-R revealed his repig colors last round

and I can't see MA voters buying his schtick going forward..

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to flamingdem (Reply #1)

Sat Dec 15, 2012, 10:45 AM

2. I agree.

We just need to run a half-decent candidate and Brown will go down Adam.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sat Dec 15, 2012, 12:21 PM

3. Scott Brown filed papers with the FEC as a 2014 Senate candidate

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Blaukraut (Reply #3)

Sat Dec 15, 2012, 05:36 PM

4. Too bad for Scottie

Teddie Kenedy is being primed for that position. He loses again.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sat Dec 15, 2012, 05:43 PM

5. We need to start pushing Markey

Right now, he's the strongest dem we have.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sat Dec 15, 2012, 06:23 PM

6. Don't forget, governorships are better for national careers then senators

If I were Brown I'd be thinking long term, I'm more likely to get a better job after I'm out of office if I serve 1 or 2 terms as governor then another term as senator only to lose again later.

And who knows, if he kept his popularity up in such a situation he could start to look like a logical VP pick to a republican nominee in the future.

There's just not the same long term career opportunities going back to the senate once he loses again in a future (probably presidential) year, other then being a lobbyist.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sat Dec 15, 2012, 08:28 PM

7. Markey-D is the 7th most senior member of the US House.

If he becomes US Senator in 2013. He could easily serve 2 full terms in the US Senate. Retire in 2026 at the age of 80.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sat Dec 15, 2012, 08:51 PM

8. scott brown begs david cock for money!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sat Dec 15, 2012, 09:59 PM

9. more likely scenario:

Brown runs for Senate in Special Election loses to Ed Markey.
Brown runs for Gov in 2014 and loses to any Democrat.
Brown is never heard from again.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sun Dec 16, 2012, 09:32 AM

10. No way. Brown is a showhorse not a workhorse.

He wants to prance around the Senate as Mr Bipartisan not deal with the day to day details of actually governing.

His ego is out of control.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sun Dec 16, 2012, 09:41 AM

11. Nope

Nice pie-in-the-sky scenarios that must play well in Brownie's dreams.
He is a Republican in the most Democratic state in the nation. No amount of image-conjuring this fall could change that.
In the special election that sent him to the Senate, he was elected as the unknown nice guy tooling around in his pickup truck. He ran against a candidate who believed that spending a week of valuable campaign time in the warm sunshine was more important than standing outside in the January cold shaking voters' hands.
Now he is known, has a record (more reliably right-wing than his hollow image) and cannot fool anyone with the pickup truck.
His 15 minutes of fame has expired.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sun Dec 16, 2012, 08:48 PM

12. Republican Statewide victories in MA from 1990 to present.

1990 MA Governor- Weld(A Moderate to Liberal Republican US Prosecutor) vs Silber(A Moderate to Conservative Democratic President of a major University).
1990 MA Treasurer- Malone.
1994 GOP Wave. Weld-R and Malone-R won re-election.
1998 MA Governor- Cellucci(Acting Governor-Moderate Republican) vs Harshbarger(A Moderate Democratic State Attorney General).
2002 MA Governor- Romney(Wealthy Businessman-Moderate to Conservative Republican before his Presidential run) vs O'Brien(Democratic State Treasurer-Moderate Democratic Female).
2010 MA US Senate Special- Brown(A moderate Republican state Senator) vs Coakley(A moderate Democratic State Attorney General).

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to NPolitics1979 (Reply #12)

Sun Dec 16, 2012, 10:30 PM

13. Yes; so what's the point?

Really? Bill Weld, Joe Malone and Paul Cellucci are relevant now? Let's dig up Ed Brooke, Frank Sargent and John Volpe.

Number of Republicans currently in the Massachusetts Congressional Delegation: Zero.
Number of Republicans currently in any statewide office: Zero.

And if Coakley hadn't run one of the most dreadful campaigns in the history of Massachusetts politics, she'd have been reelected comfortably last month.

I hope Scott Brown keeps winning Republican primaries. He'll keep losing general elections and, simultaneously, stop the party from developing any new talent that might actually be capable of winning statewide office in something other than a special election held in January against an awful candidate.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to NHDEMFORLIFE (Reply #13)

Mon Dec 17, 2012, 01:32 AM

14. The Republicans listed above with the exception of Malone are more MODERATE than

Brown and Romney.
The Democratic Frontrunners.
The Top Tier Democratic candidates are either Capuano or Markey.
The wild cards are Meehan or Joe Kennedy-The Father.
Capuano,Markey,Meehan,and/or Kennedy defeats Brown in the Special Election.
Tsongas vs Brown will be the repeat of Coakley vs Brown.
Lynch vs Brown will be a Tossup in the Special.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to NPolitics1979 (Reply #14)

Mon Dec 17, 2012, 12:35 PM

15. I guess we see things from a slightly different perspective

As stated before, I think Brown's win vs. Coakley was due more to Coakley's ineptitude, fueled by arrogance, than anything he did.
At this point in time, I think the senate seat is safely Democratic, regardless of the names on either side of the ballot.
The governor's office has always been more fluid in Massachusetts, but unless the state economy goes straight down the toilet, it is safely Democratic for the foreseeable future.
In other words, I think the Republican Party is currently comatose in the Commonwealth.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to NHDEMFORLIFE (Reply #15)

Mon Dec 17, 2012, 03:06 PM

18. Thanks for the input.

The 1990 recession is what allowed Bill Weld to get elected MA Governor in 1990, get re-elected in the 1994 GOP wave.
1998 and 2002- Cellucci-R and Romney-R were running against mediocre Democratic challengers.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Mon Dec 17, 2012, 01:55 PM

16. He will still lose

 

He will never win another statewide election in Mass.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Mon Dec 17, 2012, 03:01 PM

17. Kerry Replacements.

Caretakers (The day Kerry resigns his seat to The day of the Special Election)
Ex MA Governor and 1988 Presidential Candidate- Michael Dukaks.
Lawyer and US Senate widow- Victoria Reggie Kennedy
Ex US Senator- Paul Kirk.
Former 4th CD US Rep Barney Frank.
Special Election to January 2015 or on.
3rd CD US Rep- Nikki Tsongas-D- (Her husband previously held this seat during the early 1980s)
5th CD US Rep- Ed Markey-D- (3 million dollar COH, has a 30 plus year Congressional Career, about the same age as Liz Warren)
7th CD US Rep- Michael Capuano-D- (the most progressive member of the MA US House Delegation- has a 15 year Congressional Career, previous ran for the US Senate during the 2010 Special Election- making a strong 2nd place finish in the Democratic Primary)

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread