2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumTexas Voting - HOLY CRAP, it's going blue!
Last edited Thu Oct 27, 2016, 02:44 PM - Edit history (1)
By NoBlinkers Thursday Oct 27, 2016
So, I voted on Tuesday part of the record early voting in Ft Bend county. But Harris, the heart of Houston, is one of the major counties we need to turn TX blue. From 2012, we need an extra 700k or so votes and it looks like were getting them!
As of Tuesday, 250k more voters had turned out than in 2012. And now, Harris County is reporting their totals for Wednesday, and has broken even more records. It was amazing when they broke turnout records day 1 with 67k...and then beat THAT record on Tuesday with 73K...but as of this morning, over 76,000 voted on Wed, shattering even Tuesdays record!
Texas is going blue!
Battleground Texas - Hillary for Texas
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)October 26, 2016
Heard on All Things Considered 4:30
.... what's happening to the GOP nationally is happening in Texas, too.
"He has turned off women all over America," Reed says, "and it really doesn't matter whether you are an R or a D. We're no different when it comes to that kind of thing. So, the soccer mom today, while she cares more about economic stuff, there comes a point where there's a bridge too far, and I'm seeing already in North Dallas a couple of the 'nasty woman' T-shirts."
..... "Where we stand today, Hillary Clinton winning Texas is very, very real," Anchia says. "We have a candidate who has gone out of his way to alienate Hispanic voters. I think you not only going to see that at the top of the ticket, but you're going to see it down ballot. The efforts of Donald Trump and the Republicans, they're really delivering that vote in large percentages to the Democratic Party." ..............
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)If youre voting by mail, ballots are in the mail. Keep an eye out. Make a plan to return your ballot. #MyTexasVotes
No, Texas' voting machines aren't switching Trump voters to Clinton. He is doing that all by himself
No, Texas voting machines arent rigged against Donald Trump http://thkpr.gs/10273ab2d274
Day 2 of early voting in #Texas! Find the polling location nearest you: http://www.votetexas.gov/voting/where
Gothmog
(145,155 posts)RKP5637
(67,107 posts)republicans helped me? Not much for most, I would say.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)that the demographic makeup changing. Although agree with your statement - but may be "too much like right"
gademocrat7
(10,656 posts)Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)minutes. They were organized. I am working in a precinct but not my home precinct so I knew I had to get my vote counted. I felt very good for the rest of the day. I would love to see Texas blue again.
Avalux
(35,015 posts)She texted me to let me know she waited in line 45 minutes to vote but she did it!
tblue37
(65,340 posts)And do you know whether she voted D downticket as well?
Hillary needs a cooperative Congress to get stuff done. A Republican Congress will spend all its time investigating and trying to impeach her, trying to repeal Obamacare, and blocking everything she tries to do--including appointing federal judges and SCOTUS justices.
Avalux
(35,015 posts)This year though she's "fed up" with Republicans and voted straight Dem ticket, including Pete Gallego. I think I've helped with that.
tblue37
(65,340 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Go Texas democrats!!!
JCMach1
(27,556 posts)Country where I voted... I think there may just be a lot of excitement on both sides here because there hasn't been a close race in years.
I think TX may be the biggest nail biter on election night. Super close! 1-2 max either way.
Divine Discontent
(21,056 posts)I just ate breakfast last week with 4 African American women, and I'm a pale middle aged white dude with a graying beard.
I'm sure some people watching (that's what people do at this breakfast place, lol) were mesmerized because I've ate there a hundred times and I've never seen a white guy my age eating with black people. I only knew one of them well, my friend of the group, the rest were her coworkers. Her coworkers knew little about Trump's past, so she wanted me to tell them some things, instead of her. So, I read them one short article and they were shocked at how foul he is. I hope I inspired some of them along with my friend who is very much into voting, into getting them out to vote. There was one who wasn't was having any of it, well, It turned out her family is Republican because of gay marriage, abortion, etc... So, again, if you saw her family, you'd think they were the Democrats, and I was the Republican, and here I'm the liberal, and her family are the Republicans.
JCMach1
(27,556 posts)Collin County is one of the wealthier, more Republican burbs of Dallas... So, no shock really.
What I have noticed in TX has been a general apathy among Republicans in general. With little GOTV for Trump, this could prove fatal for his campaign. However, the Trumphumpers (as opposed to general Republicans) are Trumphumpers.
Divine Discontent
(21,056 posts)yeah, and being that kind of county, not a shock assuming the vast majority are RW'ers
Ken226
(33 posts)Does it indicate how the turnout is broken down by party? This turnout will be great, but only if the rethugs are staying home.
reasonabletexan
(40 posts)There are folks out there who are checking off the names of those who have voted and cross-checking that with whether they voted in any recent primary, but those results have not published yet. The only thing we have (in Harris County - Houston) is the locations of the early voting and the corresponding state representative district it reflects. Those numbers show big turnout across the board, R and D. The thing is that in many historic R areas, the D population is growing rapidly (as the inner city gets gentrified).
Major Nikon
(36,827 posts)So if you break it down by location, that might provide some kind of indication. Regardless of how this election turns out, big things are happening in Texas. The Wendy Davis campaign, even though a loss, revitalized many networks that had long since been abandoned.
tammywammy
(26,582 posts)LeftInTX
(25,285 posts)I live in Bexar County. Some of the more affluent locations have the highest turnout. Sadly some of the highest Latino areas are lagging. I don't know how to compare polling locations to 2012 however, only the county total compared to 2012. Still, I think Hillary will probably win Bexar County by a few percentage points as did Obama.
True_Blue
(3,063 posts)Blue Idaho
(5,049 posts)I thought I'd never see the day!
citood
(550 posts)Harris:
49.4 D vs 49.3 R
Dallas
57.1 D vs 41.7 R
Tarrant
41.4 D vs 57.2 R
Bexar
51.6 D vs 47.0 R
Travis
60.2 D vs 36.2 R
ananda
(28,858 posts)Probably around 90%!
sheshe2
(83,748 posts)DLnyc
(2,479 posts)Looking at the four counties that seem to show the biggest increase 2016 over 2012 and 2008 in your graph, and imagining similar mixes this year (a big assumption, hopefully all mixes will be much better for Clinton), it seems like two great news for Hillary, one a wash and one might actually help Drumpf:
Dallas
100.0% Reporting
B. Obama (i) Dem 57.1% 403,170
M. Romney GOP 41.7% 294,339
Travis
100.0% Reporting
B. Obama (i) Dem 60.2% 231,540
M. Romney GOP 36.2% 139,503
Harris was super-close, apparently, and Collin evidently was Romney:
Harris
100.0% Reporting
B. Obama (i) Dem 49.4% 585,451
M. Romney GOP 49.3% 584,866
Collin
100.0% Reporting
M. Romney GOP 65.1% 195,933
B. Obama (i) Dem 33.5% 100,754
Probably phone calls and other GOTV operations could help a lot!
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)Laura Clawson Thursday Oct 27, 2016 · 6:36 AM PDT
When a candidate has been howling for weeks about a rigged election and early voting has started, whats the logical next step? You start to make specific claims of rigging, as Donald Trump demonstrates:
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
A lot of call-ins about vote flipping at the voting booths in Texas. People are not happy. BIG lines. What is going on?
6:01 AM - 27 Oct 2016
Trump doesn't bother to fact check jack shit! Very presidential of him.
Dallas Cow-ploys Fact Check
FALSE!
Although rumors of "vote switching" in Texas are rampant, we found only one case in which a report was investigated, and it was found to be unsubstantiated.
Republican rumors turn out to be false! Surprise, surprise.
RALEIGH, N.C. -- North Carolina's elections board says it has received a smattering of complaints about electronic voting machines getting things wrong, but nothing outside the norm for a presidential election year. ........." said Gannon. "That said, they are technology, they are machines and occasionally they do malfunction." ..
pamela
(3,469 posts)My husband and I are both voting in Texas for the first time. Just got a notice from my mail forwarding service that our absentee ballots arrived and are on their way to us. We' ve both always voted in solid blue states (Maryland for me, California and Maryland for him) so I was a bit bummed to think that our votes would get drowned in a sea of red. Now I'm beyond excited to know that we may play a small part in turning Texas blue!
austinlw
(54 posts)Texas will be a swing state within the next decade. It's a fast growing state. People are moving into our urban areas from bluer states. Our largest cities are already Democratic. Austin is the fastest growing large city in the country. Some of our smaller cities have also made the annual lists of fastest growing in the country. It's going to happen.
tammywammy
(26,582 posts)Though this state is historically red and I saw a bunch of crap shit on my trip from DFW to the Beaumont-Port Arthur area last weekend...this state has a lot of great stuff. A lot of great food, music and beer. 😄
I'm very excited to see Texas getting more purple and more blue.
Gothmog
(145,155 posts)Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)the time
Gothmog
(145,155 posts)The former head of voter protection is now with the Texas Civil Rights Project but I am working with her volunteer replacement. If you have vote protection questions call 1-844-TXVOTES
Major Nikon
(36,827 posts)Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)received any communication in maybe a year.
Perhaps they are targeting certain parts of TX only
Dustlawyer
(10,495 posts)I voted yesterday.
Bernardo de La Paz
(49,001 posts)The heavy turnout, especially in red Harris and Tarrant counties, could be tRumpy. The excerpt (from where?) doesn't make the case that it is Democratic voters providing the jump in turnout. Nor do we know if this means fewer voters on Election Day.
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)and there are enough Democrats in Texas to turn it blue again if we get a high turnout rate. So, there is that understanding underlying the optimism about high turnout, plus some of the big spikes in turnout are in large blue blocks of voters, not the small red counties.
Nov 4, 2014
...... Texas is the GOPs flagship stronghold. However, because of rapid urbanization, population increases and shifts in demographics, many analysts wonder whether the state is turning into a winnable target for Democrats.
Texas hasnt always been red. Fifty years ago, Lyndon B. Johnson a Democrat from Texas was re-elected president. His victory in the state was impressive; he earned more votes than Barry Goldwater in 238 of the 254 counties. He carried the cities of Houston, Austin, Dallas and San Antonio, but he also won in extremely rural places ......
uponit7771
(90,335 posts)... work on 2 of the 3 that is left Texas turns blue period
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)This 2000 Texas map helps visualize areas where to expect much higher Hispanic voting today:
What is noteworthy over the last generation is the growth in Latino population. Many Texas Latinos are descendants of Texans from before the fledgling Unites States colonists moved westward, when Texas was Old Mexico and Spanish territory. Trump has seriously offended, angered, and motivated the hard-working backbone of Texas, a group of voters which has doubled in size since 2012.
uponit7771
(90,335 posts).... and the country not moving to where it needs to be.
Bernardo de La Paz
(49,001 posts)MyNameIsKhan
(2,205 posts)Out of 63% and 5% rural votes which is ceiling unless we get to reliable 45-47% percent of urban votes, Texas will be heavy lift... Population shift and urban versus rural has key to make Texas swing state... This year is out of normal, we can have depressed rural turnout which can get us to magic number.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts).... many of those Texas Democrats who voted for Johnson are now Republicans and so are their kids.
LisaL
(44,973 posts)Obama won it twice.
Zen Democrat
(5,901 posts)Those extra votes turning up may be new Hispanic voters. Registration was through the roof in Texas. Maybe there's a chance .......
TexasBushwhacker
(20,184 posts)Basically, most major cities and south Texas are blue. The suburbs and rural areas are red. The blue cities include Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Austin, Beaumont, El Paso and Corpus Christi.
LisaL
(44,973 posts)Obama won in twice, but by a small margin.
reasonabletexan
(40 posts)As the numbers swell, eventually we have to recognize that there are folks voting who are not and cannot be considered as "Likely Voters," whether they are new to Texas or new to the system. This drops the reliability of the polling and, in my opinion, offers a better chance to the democrats because the R's in Texas always turn out.
allan01
(1,950 posts)ffr
(22,669 posts)A blue Texas would join Arizona and possibly Georgia.
#BLUEWAVE
DemInND
(164 posts)And that is a very good thing! Interesting numbers. Spread the blues all over America!
uponit7771
(90,335 posts)... but he's the one crying about it
KittyWampus
(55,894 posts)And by redrawn, I mean sensibly and not gerrymandered to favor one party or the other.
Anyone know?
Upthevibe
(8,041 posts)tazkcmo
(7,300 posts)Tom Delay led the effort.
uponit7771
(90,335 posts)... what counties are districts are drawn.
The bigger issue with Texas is the resources going to the rural areas for voting and in the cities its hours to stand in line relative to the burbs.
The DNC can spend a little money here and get a really big return in the near future.
The 4 counties that make up DFW only one of them are blue but the demos for the suburbs have 100% change (think McKinney Texas, the stupid cop at the pool party and the mayor who instantly did something... cause those black and brown folk vote in those cities) but the only people you'll find door knocking the golden triangle and the 2 northern counties are republicans.
sigh... I'll be early voting... maybe the votes will give the DNC some hope
jmowreader
(50,557 posts)You know the old joke about Democrats voting on Tuesday and Republicans on Wednesday? What really happens is R's vote on Tuesday and D's the week before. I want us to take Texas as badly as you do, and for Hillary's coat tails to sweep out some of TX's leading lights, like Blake Farenthold and Joe Barton. The secret is GOTV. If we get our people to the polls we win - there are more women, persons of color and Hispanics who understand what a Trump presidency means than there are high school dropouts and Christians who think one second of contrition wipes out 70 years of atrocity. But to keep that asshole from winning Texas, we have to get people to the polls.
NoGoodNamesLeft
(2,056 posts)Each year another almost 700k immigrants become US citizens. Mexicans are the top group of new US citizens and Texas is one of the top states they live in. That's nearly 3 million new immigrant voters since Obama was elected in this country who most likely hates Trump and is looking forward to voting for president for the first time.
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)Arizona, Florida, New Mexico, all big blocks shifting blue. Trump's horrific insults and wall have fallen flat.
Add to that, everyone who loves a great taco truck ....
metroins
(2,550 posts)My wife and I will be voting tomorrow or Saturday.
LostOne4Ever
(9,288 posts)Coyotl
(15,262 posts)Several large Texas counties appear to be about a day ahead of early voting turnout compared to 08 and 12
Will we have a big Texas surprise? Voting thru 3 days up 51% over 2012 in 5 largest counties. (Most lean Dem)
awoke_in_2003
(34,582 posts)I voted on Monday, the first time I have ever voted early. The place was busier than I have ever seen on election day, and there seemed to be a lot of women. I hope that is a good trend.
dem in texas
(2,674 posts)We voted early today and there were more people there than I have ever seen for early voting. Lots of Hispanic couples with young children. One women gave me a thrill and she needs a big shout-out. She was unloading off a taxi when we drove up. She was a young woman in a motorized wheel chair. She went in and voted. She was still there when we left, I guess she going to call the cab to come pick her up. That is real fortitude, I wish someone from one of the TV stations had been there to report on that.
One of the workers told me this was the biggest turnout they'd ever had for early voting. Over 700 people voted the first day of early voting and she said many were young people.
I am not getting my hopes up too high for Texas turning blue. that day will come, but it will be a hard thing to overcome this season, not enough seats in play.
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)3 hours ago
"... The presidential nominee was likely referring to an allegation from a woman who posted on Facebook this week ..."
As a famous Republican once said, "If it is on the internet, it must be true." Abe Lincoln
Trump Sends Out DANGEROUS Tweet Claiming Voter Fraud In Texas, State Voting Officials Call BULLSH!T
Media Matters ?@mmfa 3h3 hours ago
Fox's Shep Smith fact-checks Trump's tweet claiming that voting booths in Texas are flipping people's votes:
"Something that is simply not true." Fox Newscaster VIDEO
Texas Tribune ?@TexasTribune 3h3 hours ago
@TownsendDavies Thanks for sharing! Tell us more about your voting experience by texting TEXAS VOTES to 69866. http://trib.it/2eDr99g
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)By Paul J. Weber, The Associated Press
AUSTIN, Texas (AP) - In his latest attempt to cast doubt on the election process, GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump raised suspicions Thursday about the voting machines in reliably Republican Texas despite producing no evidence of an actual problem. ............
Texas Secretary of State Carlos Cascos, a Republican, said on Facebook that there was no evidence of vote-flipping, a term generally used to describe a correctable technical glitch on older electronic voting machines. Cascos' spokeswoman said he was responding to speculation circulating on social media.
"Our office has received reports concerning rumors that some voting machines may be changing candidate selections when voters cast straight party ballots," Cascos said in his statement, which was posted a day before Trump sent his Twitter message. "We are actively monitoring the situation, and have yet to receive any verified reports of machines changing votes."
........
RandySF
(58,786 posts)I read that only the 15 most populace county in TX report their early voting figures. We don't know what kinds of number the rest of the state is pumping out, especially in deep deep red rural and small town parts.
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)A lot of Texas counties have low population, one-third rural population in an immense state with a lot of counties.
Published 12:05 pm EDT, October 27, 2016
On October 24th, 2016, the first day of early voting in Texas, approximately 394,000 people cast their ballots in person, while another 182,000 people voted by mail. This adds up to a total number of votes cast of 576,000, or roughly six percent of the states entire voting population. This is a big upswing from 2012 when, on the first day of early voting, 253,000 people voted in person and 126,000 voted by mail, adding up to 379,000 votes cast or about four percent of the states voting population. Just on day one, nearly 200,000 more people voted in 2016 than did in 2012.
On October 25th, the second day of 2016 early voting, an additional 600,000 people voted, bringing the total so far up to 987,000, or ten percent of the states voting population. This is an increase of roughly 342,000 votes from the second day of early voting in 2012, and by that point four years ago, only seven percent of the states population had cast a ballot. Texas has not yet released its numbers for October 26th.
Of the 15 counties for which early voting information has been made available, the average county has seen an increase of votes cast of 53.9 percent. The state does not release information about how many Democrats and Republicans voted. But there are seven counties where the spike is higher than the average of 53 percent, and of those seven counties, five voted for Barack Obama in 2012. Of the counties that voted for Obama in 2012, there has been an average increased number of votes of 64.7 percent, but of the counties that went for Mitt Romney, the average increase has been 44.5 percent. This all suggests that Texas Democrats may be much more enthusiastic than usual this year.
..................
duncang
(1,907 posts)There is a large open field that normally gets covered by campaign signs near our house. Our normally active neighbors who toss out signs don't have any out. A couple sets of neighbors said no way they are voting for donnie. Some have said they will be voting for Hillary. Some sound like third party votes. Don't know for sure what will happen just hope democrats gotv and turn Texas blue.
Hoping this election will reverse some of the gerrymandering the repubs have been doing in 2020 when redistricting comes back up. If we can get out the vote this year and next election in 2 years that could make this shift have major pay offs in the future of Texas.
dem in texas
(2,674 posts)Only one I have seen so far. Saw some Hillary signs in Kessler Park yesterday, but overall not as many yard signs and bumper stickers this year.
texanwitch
(18,705 posts)Another vote here.
I live in Harris County.
Got a young friend to vote also.
Her Presidential election.
Straight ticket.
Take people with you.
Javaman
(62,521 posts)I live here. I know of what I speak.
Just because texas MAY go blue does not negate the fact that it's still red controlled to it's core.
unless the texas legislature turns blue, all this "Texas is turning blue" talk is just that; talk.
Response to Coyotl (Original post)
SticksnStones This message was self-deleted by its author.
Gothmog
(145,155 posts)Coyotl
(15,262 posts)Relentless suppression: Some states still ignoring court orders regarding voting procedures
By Meteor Blades Oct 28, 2016 · 6:01 AM PDT
In Texas, some election officials still havent gotten it through their heads that they must comply with court orders regarding voting procedure. They are still posting or passing out bad information about what kind of identification is needed to be able to cast a ballotand its confusing many Texans.
This all started in 2011 when Texas passed a strict voter ID law. Using the Voting Rights Act, the Department of Justice blocked it, noting that the change was discriminatory against people of color and some other voters. But key parts of the VRA were eviscerated by the U.S. Supreme Court in 2013. Immediately afterward, Texas started enforcing compliance of the voter ID law. But the DOJ took the matter back to court and won.
Texas tweaked the law. More objections. And so it went: back and forth, back and forth, with some angry and bullseye comments coming from federal District Judge Nelva Ramos Gonzales once she learned her orders werent being followed. What it boiled down to was that Texas agreed that citizens who do not possess an acceptable form of photo identification and cannot obtain one due to a reasonable impediment may vote after signing the Reasonable Impediment Declaration.
Case closed, right? Of course not. Jim Malewitz at The Texas Tribune writes: ................
mountain grammy
(26,619 posts)will now have to secede from themselves...
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)By NoBlinkers - Friday Oct 28, 2016
Another day, another early voting record. ........
The Texas Secretary of State office has excellent record-keeping...though the numbers keep getting updated later each day. Ive included what numbers I have now, and will update as more becomes available. PLEASE be aware that when I update the table, the numbers may change. I'm still working on how to get information out fast and accurately.
Comparisons: 2008 - 2012 - 2016
Harris (Houston) 44,235 51,240 76,329
Tarrant (Fort worth) 28,596 28,132 39,996
Bexar (San Antonio) 29,857 30,274 39,417
Travis (Austin) 22,879 17,494 32,780
.....................
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)Coyotl
(15,262 posts)Offense, offense, offense!
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)By NoBlinkers
Sunday Oct 30, 2016
data, analysis and caveats. .....
2008 2012 2016
...
Harris (Houston) 64,772 71,393 75,507
Dallas 41,997 41,267 30,590
Tarrant (Ft Worth) 34,416 35,060 41,224
Bexar (San Antonio) 26,924 26,126 35,160
Travis (Austin) 14,544 14,973 20,124
Collin (DFW) 19,043 20,553 26,383
Denton 15,460 16,335 23,559
El Paso 6,369 5,376 7,740
Ft Bend (SW Houston) 14,805 16,867 17,701
.....
Total EV Day 6 267,596 282,831 320,800
Cumulative EV 1,493,904 1,584,514 2,258,046
McCamy Taylor
(19,240 posts)Go blue, Texas! Go blue!