2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPolitico - Florida spirals away from Trump
Trumps Florida fortunes are beginning to look so bleak that some Republicans are steeling themselves for what could be the equivalent of a landslide loss in the nations biggest battleground state.
Trump has trailed Hillary Clinton in 10 of the 11 public polls conducted in October. According to POLITICOs Battleground States polling average, Clinton has a 3.4-point lead. Even private surveys conducted by Republican-leaning groups show Trumps in trouble in Florida, where a loss would end his White House hopes.
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On the presidential race weve found Clinton with a consistent 3% - 5% lead in surveys that attempt to reflect Floridas actual electorate, Ryan D. Tyson, vice president of political operations for the Associated Industries of Florida business group, wrote in a confidential memo emailed to his conservative-leaning members this weekend and obtained by POLITICO.
Though Clintons lead is within the margin of error for this survey, we would suggest that 3% really isnt as close as it may seem in the state of Florida, Tyson wrote, estimating a turnout of as much as 71 percent, or as many as 9.2 million Florida voters overall. If that happens and the polling margins hold, Clintons raw vote lead over Trump could end up being 275,000 to 460,000 votes.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trump-clinton-florida-230275#ixzz4O7MEDW3a
Gothmog
(145,619 posts)TonyPDX
(962 posts)voteearlyvoteoften
(1,716 posts)He has been leading Murphy for months but it looks like with a big win for Hillary he is outta here!