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New poll has Trump +2 in Texas (Original Post) RandySF Oct 2016 OP
Wow vadermike Oct 2016 #1
Donald has a new product line: Trump Toast! VMA131Marine Oct 2016 #2
Link below Proud liberal 80 Oct 2016 #3
Maybe HRC should shift resources from Ohio to Texas oberliner Oct 2016 #4
My least favorite aspect of election season Awsi Dooger Oct 2016 #5
Obama won solidly red Indiana in 2008 Doctor Jack Oct 2016 #6
well, texas may be a pipe dream jacksonian Oct 2016 #9
I agree because of money. RandySF Oct 2016 #10
It sounds like conservative enthusiasm is bottoming out, deep in the heart of Texas. dubyadiprecession Oct 2016 #7
I wonder if Marc Cuban endorsement will help with Texas seeing DLCWIdem Oct 2016 #8
 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
5. My least favorite aspect of election season
Tue Oct 18, 2016, 09:47 PM
Oct 2016

No concept of fundamental variables and true odds. Texas won't be close. South Carolina won't be close. Utah won't be close. And so forth. States with huge percentages of self-identified conservatives are not going to favor the Democrat or even tease the Democrat. Once the results start coming in these will be double digit margins. Nobody will say much of anything. We shouldn't be saying anything now.

Rachel Maddow is particularly horrendous at this aspect of politics. Literally every cycle she clutches the state polls that defy long term logic and sits there with a smug face, pretending there's actually an opportunity. She is essentially insulting her audience yet doesn't have any clue about that. It's the only time I click away from her show.

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)
6. Obama won solidly red Indiana in 2008
Tue Oct 18, 2016, 09:54 PM
Oct 2016

And North Carolina went for bush by 13 points in 2004 and it went blue in 08, nearly went blue in 2012, and will likely be won by Clinton this year. Its not just baseless speculation. States can turn from red to blue and vice versa. And sometimes it can happen very suddenly

jacksonian

(736 posts)
9. well, texas may be a pipe dream
Tue Oct 18, 2016, 10:21 PM
Oct 2016

but the main point is Texas never polls like this and now it is.

Whatever that means electorally it certainly seems pro-dem.

RandySF

(58,807 posts)
10. I agree because of money.
Tue Oct 18, 2016, 10:25 PM
Oct 2016

Texas is huge, red and full of very expensive media markets. It would have required a pre-cognizant campaign manager who was willing to spend the cash and have offices in place to take advantage of Trump's late meltdown.

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