2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNew poll has Trump +2 in Texas
Wash Post/Survey Monkey hot off the presses.
Holy crap
VMA131Marine
(4,139 posts)The breakfast of losers.
Proud liberal 80
(4,167 posts)Interesting
GA a better bet for Clinton than Ohio, Fla, or Nevada.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/clinton-holds-clear-advantage-in-new-battleground-polls/2016/10/18/2885e3a0-94a6-11e6-bc79-af1cd3d2984b_story.html
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Is it crazy to suggest that?
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)No concept of fundamental variables and true odds. Texas won't be close. South Carolina won't be close. Utah won't be close. And so forth. States with huge percentages of self-identified conservatives are not going to favor the Democrat or even tease the Democrat. Once the results start coming in these will be double digit margins. Nobody will say much of anything. We shouldn't be saying anything now.
Rachel Maddow is particularly horrendous at this aspect of politics. Literally every cycle she clutches the state polls that defy long term logic and sits there with a smug face, pretending there's actually an opportunity. She is essentially insulting her audience yet doesn't have any clue about that. It's the only time I click away from her show.
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)And North Carolina went for bush by 13 points in 2004 and it went blue in 08, nearly went blue in 2012, and will likely be won by Clinton this year. Its not just baseless speculation. States can turn from red to blue and vice versa. And sometimes it can happen very suddenly
jacksonian
(736 posts)but the main point is Texas never polls like this and now it is.
Whatever that means electorally it certainly seems pro-dem.
RandySF
(58,807 posts)Texas is huge, red and full of very expensive media markets. It would have required a pre-cognizant campaign manager who was willing to spend the cash and have offices in place to take advantage of Trump's late meltdown.
dubyadiprecession
(5,711 posts)DLCWIdem
(1,580 posts)that he owns Dallas Mavericks