Romney's Internal Polls Overestimated Him By 109 Electoral Votes

[Doctor Jack]

Last edited Sat Nov 17, 2012, 08:23 PM - Edit history (1)

Just enjoying some late, postmortem reading of the 2012 election. One very hilarious thing to read about is Romney's internal polling numbers which showed him with a 3 point lead in Colorado (he lost by 4.5 points) a 3 point lead in flordia (he lost by 1 point), a 3 point lead in Iowa (he lost by 6 points), a 4 point lead in New Hampshire (lost by 6 points). He also had small leads in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Virginia. Basically they predicted that Romney would win every swing state except Nevada and that the final electoral vote would be

Romney 315 (actually got 203)

Obama 223 (actually got 332)

That would be the largest Republican victory since 1988. Its no wonder they bought a massive fireworks display and launched their transition website. Their heads were so far up their own asses that they were actually living in a different dimension. They actually believed, until the polls closed, they were going to win in an electoral vote landslide.




The Romney campaign kind of reminds me of the Soviet Union. For years we feared the Soviets, thought they were outgunning us, kicking our asses in technology and education. But it turned out that they were completely incompetent and barely keeping themselves together. Same with Romney. He seemed scary and there was the constant concern about "what does he have up his sleeve?". It turned out, nothing, nothing at all. It was an empty headed campaign that had absolutely no idea what it was doing and was doomed by its own hubris and stupidity.

[BeyondGeography]

1. They probably confirmed it all with Frank Newport of Gallup

RomneyCo: Frank, we've got the white vote pegged at 78 percent.
Newport: That could be a little low, based on what we're seeing.
RomneyCo: We just want to be careful. Best not to be too overconfident.
Newport: You've got nothing to worry about. Give my best to the President-elect.

[libdem4life]

2. Clearly his "internal pollsters" were getting paid for the message, not the skill.

I mean, when you know your candidate is losing and you're being paid by cash-besotted idiots, what do you do, resign...or keep the cash coming and blame the Democrats. LOL

[madaboutharry]

3. The right has grown accustom to living in a world

where they get disinformation from selected sources. I think it was Bill Maher who was talking about this the a few nights ago. There once was a time when Americans actually got unfiltered news from Walter Cronkite and The Huntley/Brinkley Report. There wasn't a Fox News masquerading as legitimate news. The Romney campaign was guilty of a Pravda mentality and not giving due respect to alternative information. The ridiculed Nate Silver, calling him names, rather than taking him seriously.

I really think the republicans need to take a good long look at how Rush, Fox, and all the other right wing commentators did a great disservice to their chances of winning the election by thinking that the majority of Americans believed that Pres. Obama was the nazi, commie, muslim, anti-Christ, socialist, fascist, Kenyan, affirmative-action, food stamp loving president they claimed him to be.

[RomneyLies]

4. That's because the assholes treated party self identification as demographic data

instead of treating it as opinion data like all pollsters do.

They skewed their own internal polls on purpose.

I'm betting the first few polls after the convention were not to Romney's liking so a yes man altered the polling methodology.

[Blue4Texas]

5. No wonder they thought they would win!

Ouch

[yardwork]

6. Rove assured them that the fix was in in Ohio and probably other states as well.

I think that the bogus polls were designed to make it believable to the public when Romney stole the election.

Something prevented Rove from stealing Ohio and other states.

[AndyTiedye]

12. You Got It!!

Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Colorado (at least) were supposed to be "in the bag" because the fix was in.

Maybe somebody unfixed them.

[brush]

13. Nailed

Exactomundo! That's why he had the meltdown on FOX. The fix that was supposed to be in wasn't.

[nc4bo]

17. This is my belief also. For a myriad of reasons, we got relative fairness at the ballot box in '12.

Ground game, lawyers, watchers, spyers, outside interference of whatever and every sort, determined and enraged minority voters, really enraged white women, po'd Democratic white guys too all played a role in defeating the dragon.

Thank God, Goddess, Buddha, Kolob, Stonehenge, Luck, Forces of Good, <insert noun here>.......I'll be remembering '08 and '12 for the rest of my life, ESPECIALLY the shenanigans of '12.

[Squinch]

7. This is graphic proof of the Kool Aid having been imbibed. "I want it, therefore it is." Dimwits.

[C_U_L8R]

8. Gettin' high on their own supply

of bullshit that is.

[neverforget]

9. They believe their own propaganda and that is a scary thing. Reality based world

they're not. Fricking nutjobs.

[democrattotheend]

10. They actually paid pollsters to tell them this?

Unbelievable. I tend to be incredibly pessimistic and anxious during election season and even I knew at the end that Obama was probably going to win. That doesn't mean I wasn't nauseous all day, but in my heart I knew he was going to win.

I always thought they were just trying to project optimism and keep their supporters from getting demoralized. I didn't realize that they were actually this confident of victory.

If their polling had had them leading in Virginia, Colorado and Florida, and maybe even Ohio and New Hampshire, I could at least respect that, because most polls showed those states as a toss-up going in, although VA and CO ended up not being that close.

But to believe polls that showed them winning Wisconsin, Iowa and Pennsylvania is insane. Talk about self-delusion.

[TroyD]

11. I believe the final number for Obama is 332

[Doctor Jack]

15. Gracias

[vilify]

14. They must have had Dean chambers from unskewed polls running the campaign.

[Trajan]

16. Let this be a warning ....

You are screwed when you go UnSkewed ....

Screwed, blued and tattooed .....

Their own hatred led them astray ... Is anybody surprised ?

Nah ....

[alcibiades_mystery]

18. I simply don't believe that they believed that

I don't understand these postmortem stories (I don't get the angle), but they could not have possibly been that divorced from reality.

[mzteaze]

19. Actually...

If you listen to their current talking points, it's not hard to see how they were so frigging wrong.

Dick Morris said:

The key reason for my bum prediction is that I mistakenly believed that the 2008 surge in black, Latino, and young voter turnout would recede in 2012 to "normal" levels. Didn't happen. These high levels of minority and young voter participation are here to stay. And, with them, a permanent reshaping of our nation's politics.

In 2012, 13% of the vote was cast by blacks. In 04, it was 11%. This year, 10% was Latino. In ’04 it was 8%. This time, 19% was cast by voters under 30 years of age. In ’04 it was 17%. Taken together, these results swelled the ranks of Obama’s three-tiered base by five to six points, accounting fully for his victory.

I derided the media polls for their assumption of what did, in fact happen: That blacks, Latinos, and young people would show up in the same numbers as they had in 2008. I was wrong. They did.

You can read the rest here: http://www.dickmorris.com/why-i-was-wrong/#more-10133

Dean Chambers....just an idiot.

Public Opinions Strategies (who handled the polling for Romney) said this:

The number of assumptions that must be made has increased significantly: including enough cell phone interviews, ensuring that younger voters are represented in a sample like they are in the electorate, projecting the white and minority percents of the electorate, and having the right partisan mix are all tough calls.

Here: http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/11/romney-pollsters-firm-explains-149372.html

But the bottom line is, the entire party has continually marginalized minorities (blacks, Hispanics/Latinos, Asians), the youth, gays and basically anyone that isn't in the same demographics with either the Unibomber, those folks from Doomsday Preppers, the Christian religious extremists or millionaires like Trump, all of who amazingly have the skin tone. So, if they marginalize them, do you really think they would consider them as a large part of their polls?

[Sunlei]

20. the hired help is always nice to you.