***High Point University North Carolina Poll: Clinton 43, Trump 42, Johnson 10***

[piechartking]

3-way

Clinton 43
Trump 42
Johnson 10

If you just have likely voters with no leaners, Clinton is at 42 to Trump's 40.

Poll taken 9/17-9/22, MOE: +/-4.9, Sample size: 404

http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2016/09/47memoA.pdf

[BlueStreak]

1. I don't believe Juhnson will really get 10% anywhere

I think the polling represents Johnson as "none of the above". Trump and Clinton have historically high negatives. People are answering "Johnson" because they can't bear to say they support Trump or Clinton, and Stein has her own problems.

The big question is what do these people do on election day (or early voting). My guess is that half of them stay home, relative to the Clinton and Trump base. And half of those indeed vote for Johnson. But this still leaves 2-3% that will vote for either Trump or Clinton.

There has been an interesting shift in the polling recently. Until about 2 weeks ago, almost every poll that showed both 2-way and 4-way races showed Johnson hurting Clinton by about 2%. But lately that has shifted to either even or in Clinton's favor.

In the end, I doubt it is much of a factor in the swing states. I'd bet most of Johnson's support is from the western states that are not in contention.

[DarthDem]

2. And of Course

This poll gets no discussion.

This forum is a little silly these days. Or something else.

Great job in North Carolina, Hillary and campaign!!