Is Florida KEY election night? Is that the state to watch?

[PearliePoo2]

I've heard that Trump can NOT win without carrying Florida. True?

[citood]

1. The way the electoral map is stacked

Any GOP candidate pretty much needs 2 out of 3 of FL, OH, and PA...and PA has become a lot less 'swingy' this last decade. So yes, FL is very important, as is Ohio. But also the models are showing CO starting to be crucial.

With CA, NY and all of New England locked up, any GOP candidate has to run a near perfect campaign to win.

[exboyfil]

2. Trump could still lose even with carrying all three

but unlikely. Could he sub one out and still win with 2 out 3 (say PA holds).

270towin is a great site for scenarios. http://www.270towin.com/

Assuming Clinton wins PA, NH, VA, WI, MN, all of Maine, NM - she will have 270 votes

If Florida is an early call for Clinton the night is over.

[PearliePoo2]

4. exboyfil wrote: "If Florida is an early call for Clinton the night is over."

That's what I've been hearing the analysts say!
Holy crap, I'll be on pins and needles and focused like a laser on freakin' Florida!

[citood]

5. My recollection of 2012

Is that the talking heads were looking county by county in Florida, and early reports were very favorable to Obama - especially in 'bellwether' counties. However, not wanting a repeat of the 2000 fiasco, most networks held off on 'calling' Florida until the polls closed in the panhandle. And by that time, we knew about OH and PA, so 'the night was over' the second the polls closed in central time.

I suspect the same will happen this year, and there will not be an 'early' call in FL, because of the panhandle and time zones. At earliest, the 'call' will be made when polls close in central time...

...but I've got a feeling CO may end up being a decider, making for a long night before the outcome is certain.

[PearliePoo2]

10. Florida has two time zones??

Sorry, I'm on the West Coast (Washington State) and not as knowledgeable as I should be about Eastern time zones.

[citood]

11. Yes, the portion of the panhandle that is immediately south of Alabama is central time.

And it leans GOP. They howled in 2000, when the networks called FL early before the polls closed in the panhandle.

[NoGoodNamesLeft]

12. For Florida...seniors will be key

Florida has a few different groups that come into play. Many Latinos are in Florida but many of them are pretty conservative. Trump has been so offensive towards Latinos that it will help Clinton. Next are the elderly. Many come from New England and many come from Ohio and more conservative states, including lots of veterans. These elderly folks will be key. There are lots of African Americans in the state as well. There are more churches in Florida than there are gas stations in a lot of areas. Some are super conservative and others are really liberal. In rural areas there are many lower income working poor people who vote against their interests. There are lots of young urban and college students and younger suburban families close to the cities. I think Clinton needs to remind the seniors why they should support her and focus on the younger urban and suburban folks in addition to what she's already doing regarding children and minorities. That will help with Florida.

[saltpoint]

3. Big, diverse, interesting state.

With a big block of electoral votes.

Both campaigns will want Florida. Only one of them is well-organized in the state.

Ours.

[citood]

7. That was certainly true in 2012

"Only one of them is well-organized in the state.

Ours."

That was certainly true in 2012. The talking heads were amazed at how well the campaign was able to get out the vote - astonished really. At the same time, Romney's get out the vote effort, which relied on super special software that ultimately did not work, fell far below expectations. I have no idea what is being done this year, as I have heard absolutely nothing about Trump's GOTV strategy (I assume they scrapped Romney's software), and I assume the HRC campaign is just building on the successful model.

Having said that, the early voting demographics in FL are more favorable to Trump than they were to Romney or McCain.

Its a toss up.

[saltpoint]

8. Yes. Florida can be a cliffhanger. After year 2000, we

all know what it feels like for a state to be that polarized.

I'm hoping for the best this cycle. If we can stop Trump in Florida, I think the blue ticket wins.

[oberliner]

6. Yes

A win for HRC in Florida would have a huge impact.

[RAFisher]

9. Trump could win without Florida. It's very hard to win without Pennsylvania and Florida

I know Trump hasn't been up in PA but with a poll having Clinton up by 1% I have to say there is a small chance PA could go red. If Clinton won PA and FL then Trump would have to win every other swing state plus Michigan and Wisconsin. That seem very unlikely.

Trump win without FL: http://www.270towin.com/maps/njYln

Trump win without FL and PA: http://www.270towin.com/maps/ArEv2

[PearliePoo2]

13. Thanks everybody for such great responses!

The collective knowledge of DU never fails to impress!