How the Trumpists are trying to game debate expecations

[Loki Liesmith]

Lowering Expectations:

There is a conventional wisdom hardening which holds that Hillary Clinton’s most urgent task at the first debate is to bait Donald Trump into acting like the ignorant, dangerous, hateful, bigoted, temperamentally unhinged character he has periodically displayed to the nation for the last year. The corollary to this is that if Trump acts relatively controlled and projects minimal seriousness, he might “defy expectations” and emerge the winner.

I don’t buy it. While this is certainly a factor worth considering, I’m going to suggest that Clinton can win this debate — in the minds of voters, if not in the minds of pundits — even if Trump does pull off that magic transformation for ninety minutes on Monday night.

No question, Team Clinton probably would like to see Trump come unglued before an audience that could be as large as 100 million people. The New York Times reports that Team Clinton is trying to determine “how to knock Mr. Trump off balance,” in the belief that “she needs the huge television audience to see him as temperamentally unfit for the presidency, and that she has the power to unhinge him.”

And no question, Team Trump believes that avoiding that outcome is key to his hopes of prevailing. The Associated Press reports that Trump’s advisers are counseling him to avoid letting Clinton rile him up, noting, remarkably, that “some Trump aides are more concerned about Trump’s disposition on the debate stage than his command of the issues.”

A tweet/tag to retweet if you want to help remind the media to do it's job:


https://twitter.com/lambertglowbug2/status/779335252204457985
#LoweringExpectations

[Iliyah]

1. Well its being reported that t-rump is not a "career" politician

and HRC is, therefore, she HAS TO be above the A mark and t-rump can be below the F mark which he will be BUT will look absolutely presidential just because.

[BumRushDaShow]

2. He'll have no TelePrompTer so anything'll go with him!

[alcibiades_mystery]

3. Contrary to popular wisdom, the debates won't make a big difference here

Nobody's switching Clinton to Trump, she has a significant lead, and the undecideds aren't going to go one way or the other based on the debates.

Slight movements, but not really a big deal.

[Loki Liesmith]

4. probably true

prefer to plan for as many contingencies as possible, though.

[oberliner]

5. Unless there is something major that goes down

Which can be repeated ad infinitum on the news and by one of the campaigns.

[anamandujano]

14. Of course the MSM will try to make one of his quips into a knock out punch. He is most likely

practicing his zingers only as debate prep.

[oberliner]

19. Or they will seize on something HRC says

Like "basket of deplorables" - which I think is more likely.

[leftynyc]

7. Disagree

The debates are often the first look many people who aren't political junkies get of the candidates. Remember how the polls tightened after the first Obama/Romney debate?

[Loki Liesmith]

8. A significant chunk of that tightening

was due to differential non-response bias.

Obama's performance sucked -> depressed democrats -> didn't want to take phone polls.

There was a cool piece on vox I think a few weeks back on this...can't find the link.

[radius777]

20. Here it is:

Political scientists have found the weird reason polls bounce around wildly during conventions - Vox

----

The article makes a good case, but I don't fully buy it. Big events such as the debates do influence public perception, the national conversation, media narratives, all of which affect undecided voters, which affect polling.

As others here have stated, the debates are often the first time many regular (non political junkie) people will really focus on the candidate for the first time.

There are stil people who don't know much about Trump, and think that if he won the nomination of a major political party then 'of course' he must really be someone who is professional, knowledgable etc.

The debates will be a chance to expose him for what he is.

[alcibiades_mystery]

9. Clinton/Trump is not Obama/Romney

Obama and Romney were both reasonable candidates for President of the United States.

[Arkansas Granny]

10. Right. While I don't agree with Romney's politics, I never felt that he

would put us in danger if he had won the election. The idea of Pres. Trump, OTOH, scares me to death.

[leftynyc]

12. I get that

my point was the debates were the first time many started tuning in.

[LoverOfLiberty]

13. Unfortunately that's not the way it works

If the media narrative is that Trump won big, it will move the needle quite a bit, even if it isn't true. Witness Gore/Bush in 2000.

[alcibiades_mystery]

17. Yeah, I think you're wrong

[radius777]

21. Agree, but Hillary won't make the same mistake Gore did.

Gore was willfully blind to the fact that the media disliked him, and loved Bush, well before the debates. Gore thought that simply displaying his superior knowledge of issues would reveal Bush for the ignoramus he was/is. When Bush showed that he could hold his own, and Gore didn't call him out enough, the media then declared that 'Bush beat expectations' and was 'authentic' while Gore was cast as 'robotic' and 'full of himself' etc.

Hillary fully understands the dynamics, that the media loves to hate her, and grades Trump on a curve, and she will employ tactics to combat this.

She's also an excellent debater, better than Gore was.

I think another big difference between 2000 and now is that Bush was still viewed as a decent and charming guy that 'you would like to have a beer with', whereas Trump is a blowhard and a thug who makes no attempt to conceal it.

[LastLiberal in PalmSprings]

6. One word to keep Trump under control

Xanax. Lots of Xanax.

[adigal]

11. I don't think he is capable of holding it together for 90 minutes

Think of all the stupid things he said in 30 minutes of the CIC appearance and that was with Lauer giving him an easy time and no Hillary calling him on his bullshit. He said at least three absurd and idiotic things.

In my mind, here's the difference. She's been attacked for 30 years and I think she has finally learned to not really react much. He hasn't been attacked or called on his bullshit in 30 years, so when attacked, his ego makes him go right back at the person and go ballistic. Think how he handled Megan Kelly, and how that will play to those idiots in the middle who still can't decide. It will really bother them. He is not able to deal with what is coming at him on Monday night. Plus, he's not preparing on the issues and he isn't really that smart. I think he will be a complete and total train wreck.

[radius777]

18. Exactly, his 'brand' is built on dominance.

If she baits/attacks him and he lets it go by he'll appear weak to his base. And he has no depth of knowledge about anything, so trying to appear calm and professional won't work in a long one-on-one debate, where the moderator and Hillary will press for answers.

Ultimately she is going to be prepared for both styles of Trump, and adjust her strategy based upon what she sees at the line of scrimmage.

[anamandujano]

15. She doesn't have to knock him off balance. He is already off balance.

People will see that after they've had 5 minutes of unscripted exposure to him. They can sedate him but they can't make him talk anything but gibberish.

[renate]

16. I think that the debates will actually be won or lost the next day

With stakes this high, he probably can keep it together for 90 minutes. (How surreal is it that we are seriously wondering whether a grown man can control himself for an hour and a half? Yet here we are.)

But he can't keep himself from lying, if only because he knows close to nothing and will have to make stuff up in order to answer questions. The moderators apparently don't plan to fact check during the debates, so it'll be a little while before the extent of his ignorance is apparent.

He may well come out after each debate looking like he won (or didn't lose, anyway) right away, which is discouraging but likely. But in the hours and days afterwards the analysis of his ignorance will become a real news story. I think most of the media are going to stop giving absolutely equal time to facts and bullshit--after his birther "news conference"/infomercial last week I get the sense that they're starting to remember that reporting is not stenography.

[sinkingfeeling]

22. CBS said this morning if Trump didn't lose his cool, he'd win the debate.

[July]

23. Already admitting the bar has been lowered, but just for one candidate.

And that nothing that anyone says in the debate matters at all, as long as Trump pretends he's in at least sixth grade.