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[DemocratSinceBirth]

This message was self-deleted by its author (DemocratSinceBirth) on Tue Sep 6, 2016, 02:57 PM. When the original post in a discussion thread is self-deleted, the entire discussion thread is automatically locked so new replies cannot be posted.

[leebaba1992]

1. wasn't She down in yesterdays poll?

I'm addicted to polls and the CNN one is making me get NO work done today

[still_one]

29. First of all the national polls are worthless, and the media knows it. The national polls DO NOT

factor in the electoral college, or accurately weight the larger states correctly

The polls to watch are the individual state polls. Specifically the swing state polls, Ohio, Florida, etc.

Those who are voting for Trump are racists. There is no two ways about it. The media has been trying to ignore that reality, but it is what it is.

[apcalc]

2. Twelve? Where do you see 12? I don't see it.

[leftynyc]

4. First link

BIG numbers - Hillary 49 vs don the con 37. It's right there.

[Loki Liesmith]

12. it's an artifact of the filters selected.

[s-cubed]

25. If you clear all filters you see the 12% and over 12000 respondents. nt

[leebaba1992]

3. sample size of only 263 though

not very much

[uponit7771]

6. wow... why the fuck would these guys even pay for a poll like that!!??

[Loki Liesmith]

7. That's got to be a glitch

Every other poll release from that tracker has > 1000 respondents.

[Iliyah]

8. And when T-rump is tightening in this poll it's a well know fact

that it is touted. Negative polling for HRC creates the narrative for corporate media. Most of the touted polls show one thing, they give "White" voters the advantage over the total average and even give them the advantage of lessening the % of other groups polled. That in itself I find misleading.

[Fla Dem]

20. No that is because some of the filters were turned on. There were 12,714 Respondents. nt

[Thinkingabout]

5. The election has not happened, we can not sit back and think the polls are going to

elect Hillary, it is GOTV, if Hillary's supporters thinks this poll or any other poll is electing Hillary, it is not how it works. I heard the CNN this morning and even Hillary says there needs to be a good reason for us to go and vote.

[JTFrog]

10. "if Hillary's supporters thinks this poll or any other poll is electing Hillary, it is not how...."

"if Hillary's supporters thinks this poll or any other poll is electing Hillary, it is not how it works."

A) No one suggested sitting back and thinking the polls are going to elect Hillary.

B) We are all supposed to be Hillary supporters here.

"and even Hillary says there needs to be a good reason for us to go and vote". There are a million good reasons for us to go and vote wouldn't you say?

Your post seems very out of place here.

[Loki Liesmith]

9. The variable time frame is set from August 1 to September 6

Something screwy here.

[Loki Liesmith]

11. You can view the samples as a function of date

Here is a better time frame for now.

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160826-20160906/type/day


This is actually a really useful tool. It looks like there was a big Trump sample in the last two weeks that is working itself out of the system. Very interested in using this to predict swings in other pools.

As I mentioned over the weekend, it looks like the 3 week Trump cycles are a real thing.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. I am a bit confused... I never linked on a filter. Now I realize it was a filtered sample.

[democrattotheend]

13. That's odd

Other polls have shown the opposite trend. I don't see Reuters on the pollster rating.

[Loki Liesmith]

15. play with the date selectors

it will make sense.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. Reeuters is Ipsos and it's A - rated

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[still_one]

31. National polls really distort the reality. The national poll sampling does not adequately factor in

the electoral college and other factors.

It is the state polls that are relevant, especially the swing states

[democrattotheend]

36. But national polls are better for measuring trends quickly

State polls are conducted less frequently and often over a longer number of days. So they often lag behind national polls in reflecting recent movement.

[mcar]

14. K&R

[BumRushDaShow]

16. When you play around with the filters

I found that there was a 36% difference between Clinton and Trump by "lean liberal" likely voters (in favor of Clinton) vs only a 13% difference between the two (in favor of Trump) when looking at "lean conservative" likely voters (both as of Aug 28th).

[FBaggins]

17. It showed as a 100% lead for me

Of course... I had to narrow it down to myself and my five closest friends... but that's still worthy of an all-caps header, right?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. Was that a burn?

Thanks for kicking my thread though.





SMFH

[FBaggins]

34. I guess that depends on whether you're buying or selling the bill of goods

Your #30 implies that it was "buying" - so nope.

[LAS14]

18. When I go to your fivethirtyeight link and search for "Reuters" I get no hits. ?????

[barbtries]

19. that makes me breathe.

seems like only yesterday i saw a headline claiming the gap had closed to 2 points.

[ffr]

21. Maybe he should quit insulting people of all creeds and backgrounds?

Let's be honest. He's trying to lose and yet 37% will still vote for him? What if we replaced him with a turd? Wouldn't matter would it. So long as it had an R by its name, the alt-right would vote for it.

[Cryptoad]

22. I wonder ,,,,,,,

if Joe and Mika will mention this poll in the morning,,,,,, they were all over the CNN poll with Trump ,saying Trump had a 6 pt lead while in fact the poll had Trump with 2 pt lead among likely voters,,,,, Clinton had 2pt lead among registered voters.....this poll carry a bunch of weight in scheme of thangs,,,,,,, do a little happy dance.

[piechartking]

28. What was sickening about MSNBC ...

...is they'd rather talk about the CNN poll over their OWN poll, the NBC poll. How does that happen?

"Yeah we did a poll but it's SO BORING ( Clinton lead is the same) ...HEY! Screw our own poll lets get distracted with our competition's poll..."

What is that?

[Buzz Clik]

23. Just breathe.

Borrow a paper sack from friend.

[Gman]

24. Thanks for posting

And it is exciting as well as relieving of anxiety that she has a firm lead. I just want to say not to get discouraged by comments here debunking your link. It's that everyone is being extremely cautious while remaining optimistic.

[martin mike]

32. hoping it's right,

but suspecting an outlier.

[angrychair]

35. Respondents are not representative

There are no Hispanic and only 6% are Black based on turning different filters on and off. This poll is trash and heavily weighted in tRump's favor.