Both Parties See Risk From Trump Candidacy in Down-Ballot Races
MINNETONKA, Minn.—In November, Republicans could lose a House seat in the western suburbs of Minneapolis, while Democrats are at risk of seeing a seat slip away on Long Island’s northern shore. The likely reason in both cases: Donald Trump. Sizing up the impact of the Republican presidential nominee’s unorthodox candidacy on down-ballot races has become a preoccupation of political strategists on both sides of the aisle.
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Democrats need to pick up 30 House seats to win back the majority, and the district outside Minneapolis represents one of their top targets. It is more affluent, higher-educated and more female than the average congressional district, all constituencies that tend to be disenchanted by the Republican nominee.
Terri Bonoff, a centrist Democratic Minnesota state senator and prolific fundraiser, is challenging four-term incumbent Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen, whose district President Barack Obama won handily in 2008 and 2012. n Minnesota’s March GOP primary, Mr. Trump won just 18% support, placing him a distant third behind Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.
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Mr. Paulsen, who holds strong business ties to the district’s growing medical device industry, has tried to keep a distance from Mr. Trump. In an interview, he said his party’s presidential nominee had not yet “earned” his vote, backtracking from more supportive statements he made earlier in the spring.
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Mr. Trump’s candidacy is cutting the opposite way in some Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania and New York districts where there are large white, working-class constituencies.
In Long Island’s Third District, Rep. Steve Israel, the former Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair, is retiring this year, and the party is fighting to hold his seat. Jack Martins, a Republican state senator representing parts of Nassau, Suffolk and Queens counties, is challenging Tom Suozzi, the former Democratic Nassau County executive who ran an unsuccessful campaign for governor in 2006... Voters in this district are slightly older, wealthier and less female than the Minnesota district where Mr. Trump has failed to catch on.
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Ultimately, the existing partisan advantage within these two districts may prevail, with each party holding their seats. But the unpredictable impact of the GOP nominee is forcing both parties to spend more and fight harder than a normal election.
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http://www.wsj.com/articles/both-parties-see-risk-from-trump-candidacy-in-down-ballot-races-1472672250
