Election Model Update for 9/1/2016
Two models: one that only uses current polling, and one that takes the current poll as a starting point and and includes a random drift term...essentially projecting the current scenario forward to the election.
Previous model writeups:
8/16/2016 update
Update with drift included 8/6/2016
Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016
Model projections:
Probability of D win using current polling: 80.2%
average number of electoral votes: 300.3
median number of electoral votes: 300
most common electoral scenario: 300 electoral votes
Probability of D win projected forward to November election: 72.0%
average number of electoral votes: 285.6
median number of electoral votes: 300
most common electoral scenario: 312 electoral votes
Analysis: Some closing, but not in any range that really concerns me yet. Convention bump wearing off a bit.
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