Disturbing tweet about OH early voting

[democrattotheend]

Not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but just saw this tweet that indicates how important GOTV is in Ohio tomorrow:

OH EARLY VOTE: Data suggests a much narrower Dem early vote/enthusiasm advantage than in '08, all pointing to a photo finish (in Ohio)

This coming from David Wasserman, who seems to be non-partisan and was more upbeat about Obama's chances in Virginia based on early voting numbers.

[JRLeft]

1. That is because the hours were cut back. Chillax.

[democrattotheend]

2. According to his tweets

OH EARLY VOTE: Still, it's telling early vote down -7.2% in Cuyahoga (Cleveland), -12.5% in Franklin (Columbus), up everywhere else

Here is the spreadsheet: https://t.co/iYyATGQf

[JRLeft]

3. And they missed a day due hurricane Sandy.

[LisaL]

7. Cuyahoga had days of bad weather due to hurricane Sandy.

[LisaL]

25. Well, actually, Franklin county is up compared to 2008.

And Cuyahoga had horrible weather due to Sandy. But Franklin county is just fine. And it's up, not down.
"In Franklin County, a total of 68,989 people cast in-person votes since early voting started on Oct. 2, an increase from 2008, when 51,785 ballots were cast. Final-day early voting this year attracted 4,382 voters, again an increase from 3,599 in 2008."
http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2012/11/05/voting-early-a-bit-easier.html

[woolldog]

35. Franklin county is a big deal.

Obama won it by 20 points in 08 so that's good to hear.

The chart the OP posted has Franklin county with 200k+ absentee votes cast. I wonder what accounts for the difference in the numbers?

[LisaL]

38. In OH, absentee ballots have to be mailed before the election.

But they don't have to arrive before the election. So we don't even know how many absentee ballots were cast in 2012.

[woolldog]

26. They cut back early voting hours didn't they?

Not surprised there are fewer people doing early voting, especially in the most populous counties where the wait times are longer. It may be easier to vote on election day, more polling locations.

I'm not terribly worried.

[LisaL]

32. They did. And Cuyahoga had days and days of rain and no electricity in some parts due to Sandy.

That they are even close to 2008 is amazing.

[CreekDog]

84. Democrattotheend went to bed before the end

and was so concerned, they gave up on this thread within 2 minutes of posting it.

anyway.

[democrattotheend]

103. Sorry, I saw it right before I went to sleep

But it freaked me out. I figured I would post it in case anyone in/near Ohio was debating whether to take today off to do GOTV or thinking that we might have it in the bag because of early voting.

I think if you look at how long I have been a member it will be clear I am not a concern troll.

[TroyD]

4. This is what the Romney campaign has been saying for a while

They say they have erased the advantage Obama had over McCain and that they've made it close enough by increasing their own voters and decreasing Obama's voters.

[Maximumnegro]

28. Oh the Romney campaign said...

I can't believe you typed 'romney campaign said' without the proper tag. Here let me help:

[LisaL]

40. Well I guess since Romney is well known for his honest I have to believe it.

[jezebel]

6. they say Republican early vote is up 14% and Democratic early is down 4%. Rove was saying

on O'reilly tonight that Obama had over 300,000 surplus in early vote in '08 and only 75000 now.

[LisaL]

8. Obama leads large in early vote in all the OH polls.

[progressivebydesign]

64. And you watch O'Reilly and Rove WHY??? You're quoting numbers from Karl Rove?

Seriously???? I hear the Easter Bunny has some numbers to share with us, as well.

[mzmolly]

65. Axelrod responds.

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/2012/1105/Early-voting-results-show-Obama-with-turnout-lead-video

"I'm not suggesting we're going to win by the same margin we won in 2008. They are comparing themselves to John McCain, who had virtually no ground operation in many of these states," Axelrod said on "Fox News Sunday."

"So, yes, they are going to do a little better than McCain did, and we may not do as well as we did in 2008, but we're doing plenty well - and well enough to win this race," he said.

[krawhitham]

81. in Ohio your party ID is based off last primary, Dems had no reason to vote in primary this cycle

Both Obama and Brown were running unopposed

[democrattotheend]

102. These numbers were based on county

Not on party ID based on last primary voted in. If it were the latter I would not be worried.

[TroyD]

9. This is why I think it's premature for Nate Silver & others to call OHIO for Obama now

How do we know Obama is going to win Ohio until we see all the votes come in and know that there aren't any voting software shenanigans by Husted?

[woolldog]

39. Silver is making his calls based on the polls.

Nothing new. That's the business he's in.

[FrenchieCat]

10. Psssst....

Here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251217922

[Drunken Irishman]

11. Ugh...

If this was an issue, it'd be showing up in every pre-election poll, specifically the polling of early voters. Every sign points to a decent Obama lead in Ohio.

You guys need to stop borrowing trouble on things that aren't there.

[LisaL]

12. Not just decent. A large lead.

[UCmeNdc]

13. They are manipulating the vote count in Ohio

Need to investigate that new software installation. It allows the secratary of state to see the results in real time and change them in real time. Then send the false results back to the original vote count voting areas.

[flamingdem]

18. Is there a record of the original vote count

The famous paper trail?

[fearnobush]

45. You also need to wonder, if there is a Trojan in the code, who's side planted it?

If all turns out ok, Ohio will be called for Obama pretty early based on the mean average of polling.

[CreekDog]

82. there's paper

the paper trail is a good thing, Ohio apparently has that.

[Cicada]

14. SurveyUSA poll: O leads early voters 58 to 38

that seems ok to me. PPP has O leading 60 to 39.

[LisaL]

16. That's a 20 point lead in early voting.

By two separate pollsters.

[20895DEM]

15. Ohio does not track party affiliation, only the last primary you voted in.

So all new voters would show up unaffiliated, unless they voted in a primary. Fewer democrats voted in the 2012 primary than in the 2008 primary since 2012 was not contested.

According to GMU about 160,000 more votes now compared to 2008.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

[fearnobush]

17. This is a load crap, malarkey! Even RCP has a HIGHER polling average now than on 2008.

Every single pollster shows a wide sampled dem lead in early voting. The true tallies cannot be known because they are still sealed. OBAMA WILL WIN OHIO! Get over it.

[BlueInPhilly]

19. Why are you posting this again?

For someone who doesn't want to be a Doug or Debbie Downer, you seem to be enjoying being one.

[mzmolly]

20. Nate Silver responded.

Counties went 53.9% for Obama weighted based on '08 early vote, 53.0% for Obama based on '12 totals. Not a big difference.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict

[Drunken Irishman]

22. HOW DARE YOU BRING FACTS AND NUMBERS INTO OUR FREAK OUT!

[mzmolly]

37. Sorry bout that!

[SunSeeker]

21. What data? Not the data I've seen.

Ohio

Votes: 1.7 million

Democrats: 29 percent

Republicans: 23 percent

Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2012/11/05/us/politics/ap-us-early-voting-update.html?ref=politics&_r=0&

[LisaL]

23. By the way, this tweet doesn't appear to be correct.

Franklin county early votes total is up compared to 2008, not down.

"In Franklin County, a total of 68,989 people cast in-person votes since early voting started on Oct. 2, an increase from 2008, when 51,785 ballots were cast. Final-day early voting this year attracted 4,382 voters, again an increase from 3,599 in 2008."

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2012/11/05/voting-early-a-bit-easier.html

[Drunken Irishman]

27. Did you see Nate Silver tweet that even if they readjust numbers on '12 totals...

The outcome is like .9% less overall?

[LisaL]

29. I was responding to a claim that early voting in Franklin county is down compared to 2008, when

it's actually up. More people early voted in 2012 compared to 2008.

[Drunken Irishman]

31. I know...I was just pointing out that even if the #s were true, the difference would be minimal.

[LisaL]

34. Well, it's not true.

More interest, not less.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. This Place Is Incredible, Isn't It?/nt

[mzmolly]

44. I think Wasserman is jumping the gun.

Thanks for the info.

[LisaL]

46. I think he is confused about something.

Early voting and absentee voting are not the same. Yet apparently it is to him.
The ballots have 10 days to arrive.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. Your Concern Is Duly Noted.Thank You For Your Input/nt

[woolldog]

53. democrattothend isn't a concern troll

she's been here a while and was an obama supporter way back in the 08 primaries

[Maximumnegro]

30. OMG DER POLZ AND EV WUR WRNG ONOZ

[RandySF]

41. From Steve Singiser

Steve Singiser ?@stevesingiser
@Redistrict : Hearing from numerous others that real reason is many OH counties didn't have EV in 08...?

[mzmolly]

42. Am I crazy, or is Wasserman confusing absentee voting with

early voting in general?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0AjYj9mXElO_QdFJPNUt4U3F5MkxteTBoS29fSGN1S0E&toomany=true#gid=0

In 2008, people were afraid of not being able to vote given what happened in 04. With extended voting hours, I presume people are more confident that they'll have the opportunity.

I think Wasserman is making too much of his revelation?

Another interesting response to the tweet from https://twitter.com/ElectProject:

Examining OH county reports some counties appear in the midst of updating plus more ballots coming in. This is not the final report.

[LisaL]

43. I have no clue as to what he is talking about at all.

Absentee ballots in OH have to be mailed before an election. But they don't have to arrive before an election. So we don't even have the final total yet.
Ballots have 10 days to arrive after the election.
So this report is not going to be final for 10 days.

[mzmolly]

47. I think he's very

confused?

He appears to be coming to that conclusion himself?

His latest tweet:

Ah ok, see it now on @fivethirtyeight. Still not sure how he calculates the 53.9% vs. 53.0% Obama figures. Can anyone explain?

[LisaL]

48. I think he should stop tweeting in the middle of the night.

He doesn't seem to know absentee from early voting. And absentee voting numbers are not done. These ballots have 10 days to arrive. And people here should stop posting tweets about "bad rumors."

[Drunken Irishman]

49. Too much alcohol.

[LisaL]

50. And what is excuse for someone to post his tweets here?

Franklin county early voting is up compared to 2008-points to more enthusiasm, not less. Considering they had way less time to early vote, they still outdid 2008.

[Drunken Irishman]

52. Nerves?

I don't know. Some people feel the need to validate their concerns ... or at least hope to un-validate 'em.

[mzmolly]

58. My thoughts as well.

He's not comparing final totals to final totals. Oy!

[LisaL]

59. And he called absentee voting an early voting. A big no-no.

Republicans do better in absentee. Democrats do better in early voting. Nobody should be confusing the two.

[Azathoth]

51. Wasserman is making a valid observation

The darkest blue counties are underperforming while all the rest are overperforming relative to 2008. Polls showing us ahead in early voting don't really refute this observation unless we can compare them to similar polls from 2008.

In any case, we'll know what this portends in another 20 hours or so.

[LisaL]

54. He appears to be confused about absentee vs. early voting, and you claim

he is making a valid observation?
By the way absentee voting numbers are not final. So he shouldn't be comparing them to 2008 anyway.

[Azathoth]

60. You are trying to make a distinction without a difference

Absentee voting is early voting, just not "in person" early voting (and if you look at the figures, absentee voting comprises a huge portion of the early vote). Arguing that absentee ballots are still coming in misses one point: they apparently have already come in and exceeded 2008 figures everywhere else. In other words, everyone else is sending in their ballots at record numbers and on time but the two bluest counties are mysteriously sending all of theirs in late. I don't buy it.

[woolldog]

61. So are all the polls wrong?

[Azathoth]

66. No, but I don't remember what the polls showed for early voting in 2008.

We may have been winning the early vote then by larger margins than we are now. Drunken Irishman posted one from mid Oct. 2008 which seems to coincide with what we're seeing this year, so that's encouraging. But the disparity in the two biggest Dem counties is a bit troubling. However, as Nate tweeted, the disparity might be too small to have much overall effect.

[LisaL]

68. Early voting in Franklin county is actually up, not down, compared to 2008.

Despite hours being cut.

[woolldog]

70. Well I was worried about this a few days ago.

But last I checked the numbers were pretty close to 2008 so I let it go. It's possible people were deterred by weather, long lines, and trimmed hours and might prefer to cast a vote on election day. My gut sense is that Dems are very enthused and engaged (especially in a state like Ohio in counties like Cuyahoga who know the election is in their fucking hands) but we'll have to wait and see.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251198558

[LisaL]

63. You don't have to buy anything.

But republicans do better in absentee, while democrats do better in early voting. SOS Husted did something different from 2008-every voter in OH got an absentee ballot application. Some republicans might have voted absentee but if they are the same ones that voted in election last time, then total numbers aren't going to change.

[mzmolly]

69. Excellent point.

Thanks for the info again Lisa.

[LisaL]

71. Yes, republicans could have takend advantage of absentee voting (which they usually

do better than democrats), but it might just mean there will be less of them on election day. One can hope.

[mzmolly]

67. I think you're missing the point?

You can't compare final totals to incomplete totals and extrapolate much of anything. Further, think about who is providing this incomplete information for a moment? It's the same SOB that is attempting to disenfranchise Democrats by reducing EV hours in Democratic leaning districts.

Ohio Early Voting numbers.

Votes: 1.6 million

Democrats: 29 percent

Republicans: 23 percent

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/2012/1105/Early-voting-results-show-Obama-with-turnout-lead-video

This is nothing more than a desperate faux snooze talking point.

[Azathoth]

73. Well, I can't vouch for the accuracy of the numbers

But assuming they are correct, then my original observation stands. The totals are incomplete, but they have already exceded 2008 numbers everywhere except in the two biggest Dem counties, which means that either a) absentee voting in those counties is down, or b) large numbers of people in those counties are sending in their ballots late.

[LisaL]

75. Last day to send ballots was a day before the election.

They have 10 days to arrive. As of now, Cuyahoga still has 50,000 outstanding ballots.

[mzmolly]

76. I don't claim the numbers are inaccurate.

I don't think anyone has enough information about them, is all. For example, one county may have complete numbers and another may have tabulated only 80%. Nothing can be extrapolated from that. Ohio has until 11/16 to finalize EV numbers.

The totals are incomplete, but they have already exceded 2008 numbers everywhere except in the two biggest Dem counties, which means that either a) absentee voting in those counties is down, or b) large numbers of people in those counties are sending in their ballots late.

Or ... totals from some counties are complete and others are incomplete. Or, the fact that the SOS mailed everyone an absentee ballot encouraged more Republicans to use them (when they ordinarily vote on election day) etc. Or, cutting hours for early voting in various districts had an impact on early voting numbers, as intended etc. ...

Again, IMHO - we need more information before assuming much of anything.

Regardless, the assumption that Obama will not beat Romney to the extent that he beat McCain in 08, is largely agreed upon.

[LisaL]

78. I am sure Husted sending every voter an absentee ballot application was designed to

encourage republicans to use it. Republicans are better at absentee-isn't that a well known fact?

[Drunken Irishman]

55. In a poll from mid-October, Obama led McCain by 18 among early voters...

http://the-reaction.blogspot.com/2008/10/obama-trouncing-mccain-among-early.html

[LisaL]

56. So that appears to be consistent by how much he is over Romney.

[Azathoth]

72. That is encouraging

Everything I've seen up until this spreadsheet seems to track roughly with what I remember from 2008. Either way, I'm too tired tonight to go digging up old polls. By the time we got done looking at them, the election would be over anyway

[mzmolly]

62. Axelrod responds to this critique in general.

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/2012/1105/Early-voting-results-show-Obama-with-turnout-lead-video

"I'm not suggesting we're going to win by the same margin we won in 2008. They are comparing themselves to John McCain, who had virtually no ground operation in many of these states," Axelrod said on "Fox News Sunday."

"So, yes, they are going to do a little better than McCain did, and we may not do as well as we did in 2008, but we're doing plenty well - and well enough to win this race," he said.

Not to mention, Ohio's SOS has made early voting more difficult for dems in democratic leaning districts.

[Azathoth]

74. That's the bottom line, I guess

We're underperfoming with respect to 2008, but we're still performing well enough to win.

:Fingers crossed:

[mzmolly]

77. Indeed.

Peace.

[LisaL]

79. There are still 50,000 outstanding absentee ballots in Cuyahoga.

And there is still time for them get these ballots back to the board of election. Voters had to either mail them by Nov 5, or take them in person tomorrow to their board of election.

[crunch60]

57. OHIO.. More actions to disenfranchise voters. Please read and sign the petition..

Just received this info in a e-mail from a friend.

Hi,

In a last-minute directive issued Friday night that could disenfranchise thousands of Ohioans and tip the outcome of the election, Republican Secretary of State Jon Husted changed requirements for submitting provisional ballots on Election Day.

The directive requires voters, not election officials, to fill out a confusing form listing the type of ID they provided to vote. This new directive is a clear violation of Ohio law and puts even more votes at risk of not being counted.

Secretary Husted has also instructed election officials to not count ballots where that part of the form has not been correctly filled out by the voter.

That's why I signed a petition to Jon Husted, Secretary of State and Governor John Kasich.

Will you sign this petition? Click here:

http://signon.org/sign/ohio-secretary-of-state?source=s.em.mt&r_by=5893479

Thanks!

[krawhitham]

80. 29.7% EV'ed in 2008 and 31.0% have EV'ed in 2012 not counting yesterday

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

[woolldog]

85. The issue is what counties are overperforming and underperforming in early voting

Looks like the counties we need most Cuyahoga and Franklin and Lucas counties all underperformed.

But some of the smaller counties that are also really important for us (because we racked up decent margins in them in 08): Athens, Summit, Mahonig, Ashtabula, Trumbull overperformed 08 EV numbers. While not as important for the margin as the big 3 counties, the strong performance in those counties suggest maybe there isn't much of an enthusiasm gap.

[LisaL]

86. Cuyahoga still has 50,000 outstanding absentee ballots.

Hopefully most of those were either already mailed, or voters will bring them in person to the board of elections. So you really can't claim it underperformed until final numbers are known.

[woolldog]

88. I'm thinking/hoping

there's a good explanation other than an enthusiasm gap. The fact that the other counties I listed (all with substantial populations and big Obama margins last time) have already overperformed their 08 EV means maybe there is an alternate explanation for what's going on in Cuyahoga.

[LisaL]

89. Could be Sandy. They had really bad weather up North because of Sandy.

Some of them had no electricity (and I am not sure they all have it by now). One would hope they will come out to vote anyway.

[woolldog]

92. tbh,

I wish I had never seen this thread. I was feeling good up until I read it.

[LisaL]

97. Could have been worse if election was closer to Sandy. I think they are very enthusiastic.

Based on Franklin county, they managed to outvote 2008 early vote with reduced days/hours. So I don't think there is enthusiasm gap.

[krawhitham]

87. It does not matter what counties they come from, all polling data shows us with a giant lead in EV

From the data from the state along with the polling data Dems must be EV'ing from republican counties more than they did in 2008

BTW Cuyahoga county lost 2 days of in person EV'ing because of power outages from Sandy

[LisaL]

90. Could also be why they are late in sending in their absentee ballots.

If they haven't mailed them, they still have time to bring them to the board of elections tomorrow.

[krawhitham]

83. We are ahead by 83,330 in Cuyahoga County alone

And that does not count in person voting just return ballot by mail

http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/AbsenteeVoterbyCityReport11062012.pdf

Plus 68,786 NP ballots have been returned

We lead 73.2% to 26.8% (D vs R) or a 46.4 point lead

[Azathoth]

91. Bottom line is that deep red counties are up 14% while deep blue ones are down 4%

https://t.co/iYyATGQf

We need to get everyone to the polls tomorrow. Everyone.

[LisaL]

92. Where did the numbers on that spreadsheet come from?

At least for Cuyahoga, they don't match board of election numbers.

[Azathoth]

95. I didn't compile it

The last number directly from Cuyahoga I saw was 249,403, which means these numbers are newer. They probably come from here: http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html or directly from the SOS.

[UTLonghorn]

96. After a relatively

lengthy back and forth on twitter between Nate Silver and David Wasserman concerning early vote numbers, Nate basically says that polls are a much better indicator of where the race will go than changes in early voting numbers. And for those who were feeling nervous about Wasserman's claims about early voting drop-offs for dems (which I think are bit misleading by the way) he still calls Ohio to go for Obama by 1.3%. I would say it's closer to around 2% for Obama at the very least.

[LisaL]

98. If it's by 1%, we will be sitting waiting for results for weeks.

So I really hope it's much more than that.

[UTLonghorn]

101. If it makes you feel any better

I think Wasserman is looking way too much into the early voting numbers and, more importantly, so does Nate. So if Wasserman is still saying 1.3% for Obama then I think it is going to be higher than that.

[Pacific moderate]

99. Nate Silver AND Dave Wasserman say to chill out

Nate Silver?@fivethirtyeight
@Redistrict: I'll stick with the 538 forecast in OH. I disagree that the early voting data there provides much reason to doubt the polls.

And:

Dave Wasserman?@Redistrict
I still think Obama wins OH, just not by the 3.8% margin @fivethirtyeight's model projects

[Pacific moderate]

100. Polls predict better than EV data

Silver also says:

Nate Silver?@fivethirtyeight
@Redistrict: We know a lot more about how polls work (they work well) than about what changes in early voting patterns tell us.