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2016 Postmortem

TexasCPA

(527 posts) Mon Nov 5, 2012, 12:33 PM Nov 2012

ARG (aka A Republican Group) IA R 49(+1) O 48(-) & NH R 49 (-) O 49(+2)

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

We all know they lean towards Mitt.

4 replies

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Highlight:

ARG (aka A Republican Group) IA R 49(+1) O 48(-) & NH R 49 (-) O 49(+2) (Original Post) TexasCPA Nov 2012 OP

Obama leads early vote in IA 54% - 46% TexasCPA Nov 2012 #1

He led by 47-29 last time. FBaggins Nov 2012 #4

You can bet they skewed like crazy and still only got a tie. this is the best Repub pollsters can do VirginiaTarheel Nov 2012 #2

Demographics in that poll for NH are wrong. State is 31% Repub 30% Dem 49% Ind/Undeclared. berni_mccoy Nov 2012 #3

TexasCPA

(527 posts)

1. Obama leads early vote in IA 54% - 46%

Reply to TexasCPA (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 12:39 PM

Nov 2012

FBaggins

(26,731 posts)

4. He led by 47-29 last time.

Reply to TexasCPA (Reply #1)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 12:47 PM

Nov 2012

Luckily, he won the state by nine points. So there's lost of room for a shift without losing the state.

VirginiaTarheel

(823 posts)

2. You can bet they skewed like crazy and still only got a tie. this is the best Repub pollsters can do

Reply to TexasCPA (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 12:41 PM

Nov 2012

berni_mccoy

(23,018 posts)

3. Demographics in that poll for NH are wrong. State is 31% Repub 30% Dem 49% Ind/Undeclared.

Reply to TexasCPA (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 12:43 PM

Nov 2012

Most people don't declare until they go to a primary and then undeclare after they vote.

Yes, you can switch parties when you vote.

NH is largely a non-partisan state, favoring libertarians. Most conservatives in the state do not prescribe to the Tea Party ideology.

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