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2016 Postmortem

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts) Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:27 AM Nov 2012

2

Washington Post, ABC Poll: Obama 48 (-), Romney 48 (-1)

13 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Washington Post, ABC Poll: Obama 48 (-), Romney 48 (-1) (Original Post) Drunken Irishman Nov 2012 OP

Fuck... Francis Tresham Nov 2012 #1

No n/t RightBWrong Nov 2012 #3

Stupid post VirginiaTarheel Nov 2012 #4

Welcome to DU!! NewsCenter28 Nov 2012 #5

Lighten up Francis! Blue Owl Nov 2012 #6

hehe. DCBob Nov 2012 #9

Romney went down 1 point in the ABC poll TroyD Nov 2012 #7

I am getting whiplash with these polls. Mojorabbit Nov 2012 #2

The poll is not changing at all. Jennicut Nov 2012 #8

Should Obama be farther ahead Nationally? TroyD Nov 2012 #10

It depends on the turnout of the popular vote in each state. Jennicut Nov 2012 #13

Obama ties it up with indies naviman Nov 2012 #11

A tie nationally means Obama is ahead in the electoral college. aaaaaa5a Nov 2012 #12

Francis Tresham

(7 posts)

1. Fuck...

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:31 AM

Nov 2012

Are we going to lose!!!!

RightBWrong

(26 posts)

3. No n/t

Reply to Francis Tresham (Reply #1)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:44 AM

Nov 2012

VirginiaTarheel

(823 posts)

4. Stupid post

Reply to Francis Tresham (Reply #1)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:44 AM

Nov 2012

NewsCenter28

(1,835 posts)

5. Welcome to DU!!

Reply to Francis Tresham (Reply #1)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:46 AM

Nov 2012

I hope you enjoy your (brief?) stay!!

No, we are NOT going to lose. Your guy, otoh, may lose by a margin of 50-75+ EVs!

Blue Owl

(50,567 posts)

6. Lighten up Francis!

Reply to Francis Tresham (Reply #1)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 02:05 AM

Nov 2012

n/t

DCBob

(24,689 posts)

9. hehe.

Reply to Blue Owl (Reply #6)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 07:58 AM

Nov 2012

+1

TroyD

(4,551 posts)

7. Romney went down 1 point in the ABC poll

Reply to Francis Tresham (Reply #1)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 07:44 AM

Nov 2012

He was +1 yesterday.

Mojorabbit

(16,020 posts)

2. I am getting whiplash with these polls.

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:43 AM

Nov 2012

The suspense of this election is killing me.

Jennicut

(25,415 posts)

8. The poll is not changing at all.

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 07:58 AM

Nov 2012

Going up and down 1 point is basic statistical noise. I am not sure why anyone worries about this. None of these polls are really changing much, aside from Rasmussen's obvious change from plus 4 R to tied.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)

10. Should Obama be farther ahead Nationally?

Reply to Jennicut (Reply #8)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 09:09 AM

Nov 2012

That's the question.

Right now he still seems stuck in a statistical tie with Romney in the National polls.

Nate Silver predicts he will ultimately win the popular vote, but I really can't tell anymore.

Jennicut

(25,415 posts)

13. It depends on the turnout of the popular vote in each state.

Reply to TroyD (Reply #10)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 10:27 AM

Nov 2012

Will the south vote at a really high turnout rate compared to all the blue states? The east coast has it's own issues right now with Sandy. I live in Connecticut and I know many polling stations have no power still. They will be doing paper ballots and hand counting if need be. If it is because of Sandy that Obama loses the popular vote by an extremely slim margin then I really think most pundits will report that.

naviman

(102 posts)

11. Obama ties it up with indies

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 09:12 AM

Nov 2012

but Romney is at a whopping 97% with Republicans. I think this explains why indies were for Romney so much. Now some of them are identifying as Republicans so the ones left are true indies.

aaaaaa5a

(4,667 posts)

12. A tie nationally means Obama is ahead in the electoral college.

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 09:16 AM

Nov 2012

The way the battleground states are polling, Romney will likely have to win the national vote by 2-3% points to move enough battleground states.

ABC-Tie
Ras-Tie
PPP-O+3

If these national numbers hold, Obama has a clear path to 270.

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