Thoughts on this Atlantic article saying GOP is winning early voting?

[woolldog]

If you're following the presidential election closely, you know that Election Day isn't just Nov. 6 -- in some states, it's been Election Day for weeks. You may also have heard partisans spouting all kinds of statistics about early vote numbers that prove their side is winning.

"If you look at the early voting, in Nevada, Iowa, Florida, Colorado, Ohio -- we feel very, very good about the numbers that we're mounting up in those states," Obama strategist David Axelrod told reporters on a Wednesday conference call. But just a few hours later, Mitt Romney's political director, Rich Beeson, was on another conference call trumpeting the Republicans' early voting edge. "They are underperforming their 2008 numbers and we are overperforming," he crowed, proceeding to lay out the numbers in Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada.

In 2010, I looked at early voting in 20 states and found early signs of the disproportionate Republican turnout that would define the Tea Party wave. This year, the picture is more mixed, befitting the sort of non-wave election most are expecting. It should shock no one that signs point to a significant dropoff from 2008 for Obama; if Election Day trends hold, he seems likely to lose a handful of states he won four years ago. In particular, the early vote looks promising for Republicans in North Carolina, Florida and Colorado. But early voting in Iowa, Nevada, and (though it's tricky to assess) Ohio still looks strong enough for Democrats.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/11/whos-really-winning-early-voting/264436/

[FBaggins]

1. Not worth much.

Look back at 2010 (on DU) and you'll see plenty of threads looking at early voting stats to prove that the polls were wrong. We still got hammered.

The only reason these stories run is that they're the only story that's out there re: real votes. The problem is that you really can't translate them well to final results. If a whole bunch of people vote today who would have voted on Tuesday... It doesn't really change the race - but it could change the reporting of early voting and make someone THINK the race had changed.

Just as importantly, both sides ALWAYS have a spin on the early numbers that can make the race LOOK better than it probably is.

[elleng]

2. Not much but

I suspect as all data tell us is about participation, many repugs who participate don't actually VOTE repug; au contraire with Dems. JMO.

[RandySF]

3. She's not saying that.

She's saying that Republicans are winning the early vote in CO, NC and FL while we're winning in IA and NV.

[LisaL]

7. Republicans aren't winning in either NC or FL.

By party affiliation, democrats are ahead in both states.
In CO, republicans are ahead by a small margin, but CO also has large number of un-affiliated voters.

[John2]

10. Believe

me, as a native North Carolinian, this woman has drunk Romney's Koolaide. President Obama is not behind in early voting in North Carolina. Even though Republicans are voting earlier than usual in North Carolina, they are fighting to keep it close in early voting. They have made small incremental gains but they are using up their likely voters trying to keep pace.

I think the Obama campaign smells blood in North Carolina. Don't be surprised if North Carolina is the November surprise. The Republicans are bombarding North Carolina with negative Ads. In the meantime, for a state not on the schedule, the Dems are slipping some big guns in under the radar. North Carolina sure dies not look like Romney has it in the bag to me. clinton in Raleigh on Sunday and Michelle Obama in Charlotte right before Election Day. Something is going on here.

George W. Bush won North Carolina both times by winning Wake county and Mecklenberg once. He also won Guilford and Forsyth County. Romney want win any of those counties. He want even win around Ft Bragg. The Democrats have a huge margin in voter registration in North Carolina. That is her big mistake on North Carolina. She is looking at the small increases by Republicans in Early voting but forgetting about what the Dems have left in the bank for election day. For example, half the Democrats in Charlotte has not even voted yet. It is the same case in Raleigh,Winston Salem, Greensboro and Durham. The population has grown enormously in those urban areas. Not only this, some of those rural counties will flip blue also around those cities. The African American,Hispanic and college age population in North Carolina is very important. Obama has sizable leads in all those groups. The last four Polls also show North Carolina is a tossup. It is a state flying under the radar despite what the pundits are claiming.

[geek tragedy]

4. Doesn't discern between early voting that just cannibalizes election day voting

on one hand and early voting that focuses on sporadic or on the fence voters.

Also ignores past patterns in EV from those states.

[Logical]

5. Polls would count early voters also!

[andrewgr]

6. 2008

You'll notice that all of the articles that point out how bad the Dems are doing compare the numbers to 2008. Every single one of them.

2008 was a once in a generation landslide. There was never any chance Obama's numbers were going to be as good in 2012. Sayin his numbers are down compared to that is almost meaningless.

In addition, McCain had almost zero emphasis on early voting. Didn't care about it. Was caught completely flat footed when Obama made it into a campaign strategy. Romney learned from this, and so they are actually trying to get Republicans out to vote. So starting from the almost-zero-effort McCain had in 2008, of course Romney is going to be outperforming 2008. Again, almost completely meaningless.

Comparisons to 2008 just aren't useful. Look at poll numbers and raw vote counts.

[amborin]

8. GOTV!

get people to the polls.

[grantcart]

9. Here you go

1) Its true that the Republicans are the most improved. That's because Obama smoked McCain who had no GOTV. Both Democrats and Republican numbers are up.

2) Colorado

Four Years ago the Republicans were ahead by 5 points and now only 2. Its going to be close but it looks good. In Colorado independents break big for Democrats. Details here:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/01/1153415/-CO-Early-Vote-Update-conversation-with-political-press-reporter-what-it-means-w-historic-data-GOOD

3) Florida.

Both sides are up but the Democrats are up 200,000 from last time. The Democrats have wiped out the huge absentee advantage that the Republicans have.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251202641

The problem is that the Republicans have engineered long waits so even more Democratic votes haven't been counted. If they come back to vote, it looks very good.

4) North Carolina

Democrats have a lead, Democrats have 800,000 more and there is one stop registration.

MattTX promises a detailed report tomorrow but it appears that the Democrats have been successful in getting sporadic voters to vote and their most reliable voters haven't voted yet.

Details here:

http://matttx.dailykos.com/blog/MattTX

5) Iowa and Nevada

Democrats clearly ahead


Democrats are ahead in all states but Colorado, but still in a good position. We may not win them all but all states have very positive trends.

[defacto7]

11. It sounds like they are setting up

for a challenge of the outcome. Anything to convince people that it's in the GOP's favor, adds to the propaganda needed to make a vote challenge. No one would believe it otherwise.