Last of the Battleground States

[Mojo2]

Was just listening to NPR and they had three pollsters on the show, one was named Greenberg, but forget the other names. Basically, they all agreed that we are truly down to just four battleground states, Florida, Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia. They felt that, in their own words, "the cake had been baked" in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Neveda and New hampshire with Obama winning all of them. THey also said that Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania were never really even considered battleground states by either party this cycle of elections. I would think that without even winning one of the remianing four, that Obama should have more than 270.

[democrat_patriot]

1. Good to hear!!

I think. I'll have to get out the electoral map....

[sadbear]

2. President Obama doesn't need any of those states to win, does he?

Won't Ohio will get him over 270 even without those states?

[MSMITH33156]

6. Ohio alone wouldn't quite do it

He would still need to win some of the other states where the "cake is baked" for him.

[sadbear]

7. My understanding is that those states are already in the Obama column.

And that those 4 states are the only tossups now.

[MSMITH33156]

9. Well,

what the people on NPR said is basically that the election is over because Obama is at 281.

I guess I misunderstood your point. If you look at the traditional swing states that we have been looking at: NV, CO, WI, OH, IA, NH, NC, FL, VA...just winning Ohio out of THAT group would not be enough. That would put him at 255, and he would still be short. That's what I thought you meant. I

[sadbear]

10. Yep.

Sorry for the misunderstanding.

[MSMITH33156]

3. You would think right

that would put Obama at 281.

[ncav53]

4. If Obama wins Ohio, WI, and NV or IA, the rest of the battleground states won't matter

He'd already be at 271

[blm]

23. If we don't outperform 2008 in NC we'll end up with a GOP Governor. That CANNOT happen.

.

[SubgeniusHasSlack]

5. Colorado will be BLUE

The ground game advantage that OFA has here is overwhelming.

[blm]

8. NC setting records for GOTV, ride to polls for early voters and through to election day.

http://www.mecklenburgdemocrat.org/

We need record-breaking turnout in Mecklenburg County to bring it home for Obama and crucial Dem governor, congressional, and judges races.

Mecklenburg County is where the most votes are to be had - EVERY donation means help with a tank of gas for our GOTV. The ride to the polls drive is setting records already for early voting.

[ffr]

13. Every vote, every county, every state!!!

Down-ticket elections too people! We need congressmen that will work with the president and not the idiot RWNJs in there now.

[manhatslim]

11. OK.... but

'Hate to throw a monkey wrench into this..but remember we lived through 2000 (stolen), 2004(stolen) '68 (manipulated.. by the Nixon GOP- made a separate deal withe North Vietnam.. then continued the war) '80 (Casey making a separate/treasonous deal for Iran hostages. Reagan) manipulated.. They (GOP) have a remarkable ability to lie, cheat, steal, screw up ballot boxes, voting machines, intimidate voters...yadayadayada... I'm only sayin' we've been through too much shit to feel safe here.. is all

[Mojo2]

12. New Mexico

Funny thing is they never even mentioned New Mexico, but Isee that Romney today is going t ostart running ads there. It makes no sense!

[BlueStreak]

15. If that is true, it is a campaign that is completely rudderless

On some level, I can see ads in MI, WI, or even PA. If nothing else, they might have some spill-over effect into Ohio, just as ads in Minneapolis can have an impact in IA.

And I could see running ads on MO to try to help the senate race.

Advertising in NM makes absolutely no sense at all. And if they are really doing that, we have won. They are melting down mentally and are incapable of any rational decision-making.

it seems to me the same can be said about faking a relief collection by buying the "donated good" at Wal*Mart, and by continuing to run the Jeep lie even after Chrysler capped them out on it and they had lost nearly 100% of the press. That sounds like a campaign in meltdown mode.

[BlueStreak]

14. It truly is appalling just how stupid the "election experts" are

Most of them are still talking about national polls which isn't relevant to anything.

And then when you finally get some people who minimally understand the concept that it is actually about a small number of swing states, they say this !?

If it is down to FL, CO, NC, and VA, then there is no contest at all. It is over. In that scenario, those aren't "swing states." They are simply footnotes to the Obama reelection.

Honestly, NPR hasn't brought much glory upon themselves this cycle. They may be better than Faux and CNN, but only marginally.

But let's see if Romney goes back to Ohio. He bailed on Ohio to try to secure Florida today. His movements Thursday - Saturday will tell exactly what his campaign believes.

Has he said where he'll be on Thursday yet?

[BlueDemKev]

18. Don't you just love how the media...

...has pounded Obama for spending resources shoring up PA and MN, but how they've said NOTHING about Romney going to Florida which is an absolutely, positively, must-win state for him?

"Liberal media" my ass!

[sofa king]

20. You are correct. 281 w/o any of the four tossups.

I don't think North Carolina is a tossup, either, because of the sterling GOTV effort that we built around the convention there. Virginia is more likely to break Republican than NC.

I also think the President has quite deliberately exploited Florida as a Republican money-sink because with minimal effort he can keep it in play. He doesn't have to win there, but the Republicans do. I think there is an excellent chance that the GOP will be busted trying to steal it in Florida, too.

I think Romney's movements this week are calculated to put Romney's cut-outs in touch with the GOP election workers who are in a position to steal those states. There are two possible messages that can be sent: One is that the election is lost and it's too risky to steal it; the other is that Mitt doesn't give a shit if they get caught, do it first and Mitt will bail them out later after he wins.

Guess which way I think Mitt is going to go.

[BlueStreak]

21. Yeah, right Mitt will bail them out after they break the law for him, just like ...

Romney saved the accountants that ran the "Son of Boss" tax evasion scam for him at Marriott. He threw them under the bus. He will throw anybody under the bus. He would have thrown Seamus under the bus if he weren't strapped to the top of the car already.

[sofa king]

24. Heheh. Yep.

He's a sociopath. As long as he's insulated, he'll cut the rope on them first chance he gets.

But that's not what his operatives are saying right now, I am sure.

[yellowcanine]

16. Cake has been baked and Romney's goose is cooked.

He cannot win even by taking all four of the remaining states and he could easily lose all except NC and he could even lose NC if Obama gets a big enough hurricane bounce.

[BlueDemKev]

17. I think you may be correct...

...Although I'm not certain I'm ready to put Iowa in our "safe" column just yet, but I think Nevada and Wisconsin are nearly-wrapped up at this point along with Pennsylvania and Minnesota. That puts us at 253 EV's.

Therefore, assuming we're left with Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, and New Hampshire (I always keep NH as a battleground, as it is more conservative than the rest of New England), here's the path to victory:

Win Ohio --> It's Over (we'll have over 270).

Lose Ohio -->Win VA (that'll put us at 266) plus one of the three remaining states: NH (4), IA (6), or CO (9).

Lose both Ohio and Virginia (God Forbid) --> We'll have to sweep NH, IA, and CO which would give us 272 electoral votes.

Let's do it, guys. GET OUT THE VOTE!!!

[Mojo2]

19. Romney in New Mexico

The pro-Romney super PAC Restore Our Future announced this morning that it's spending $700,000 on TV ads in New Mexico, adding that state to the last-minute target list alongside Pennsylvania and Michigan:

Restore Our Future today launched a $1.8 million ad campaign in Minnesota and New Mexico. The ad buy, which begins on October 31, will rotate between two ads: "New Normal," which highlights the devastating impacts of Obama's economy on America's middle class, and "Saved," a positive spot that touts Mitt Romney's work to help find his business partner's 14-year-old daughter who disappeared in New York City for three days.

"The Romney momentum is growing and the electoral field keeps expanding," said Charlie Spies, Treasurer of Restore Our Future. "The Obama campaign has been forced to advertise in Pennsylvania and Michigan, and Bill Clinton, the top Obama surrogate, has been sent to campaign in Minnesota. Now polls show a tightening race in New Mexico. Minnesota and New Mexico understand the choice before America on Tuesday and Mitt Romney's clear vision to balance the budget, empower small businesses and protect individual freedoms is resonating."

[BlueStreak]

22. Romney doesn't care. It is not his money

Paint the town with other people's money. It is the Romney way.

[Bake]

25. That's great, but let's not take it for granted.

Not one single state is in ANYBODY'S column until next Tuesday!

VOTEVOTEVOTEVOTEVOTEVOTEVOTEVOTEVOTEVOTEVOTEVOTE!!!!

Bake

[fujiyama]

26. Then it's already over

because at that count he has 281.

FL, CO, NC, and VA is merely icing. Hopefully he'll take several of those so recounts in other potentially close states won't throw the election. He has a good chance of taking all four in that list - NC being the toughest of them.

On another note, the NM field trip by Romney is just bizarre. NM is always a few points to the left of NV, which is already bad for Romney. That tells you that NM is not in play and really never was this cycle. This is all too reminiscent of McCain's foundering last days. Desperation and an inability to rationally strategize movements or money are starting to charecterize the campaign. It is becoming a joke.